"What If" Forecast 6 -  What if the main parties get an equal vote share?  

This is a special  UK-Elect forecast examining "What would happen if the main parties get an equal share of the votes?" (See also What if the Tories overtook Labour in votes?  What if the Liberal Democrat vote surged? What if the Labour vote slumped? What if the Tories reach 40%? and What if Tactical Voting explodes?) It is again based on the new Scottish parliamentary boundaries.  It is, however, not our current forecast!

The percentages used for this simulation were Con 30%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 30%. In this election simulation we use a simple Uniform Swing technique, with no tactical voting assumed.

This simulation again confirms the enormous extent to which the current British electoral system favours Labour. (For details of the inherent bias in the electoral system see books such as: From Votes to Seats: The Operation of the UK Electoral System since 1945) .

Party Seats Change from current situation  Change from adjusted current situation  Change from 2001 election Labour 338 -72 -61 -74 Conservative 184 +22 +20 +18 Liberal Democrat 93 +38 +39 +41 Scottish National Party 6 +1 +2 +2 Ulster Unionist 6 - - - DUP 5 -1 -1 - Plaid Cymru 5 +1 +1 +1 Sinn Fein 4 - - - SDLP 3 - - - Ind 1 - - - Speaker 1 - - - Labour Majority 31 -131 -122 -135

Click on image to enlarge

This forecast confirms that the bias in the electoral system is so strong that Tony Blair will probably still form a government even if the Labour Party slips badly in the polls. The electoral bias is primarily due to the average Labour constituency being far smaller than the average for the other parties, something that is partly corrected by the ongoing boundary review process. The changes in Scotland have reduced the bias by approximately 10 seats, but it is still large overall.

From time to time in the next few weeks we will feature other "what if" scenarios. To make your own "what if" forecasts, try using our "free for 3" UK-Elect v5.55GE Trial Version download.

To forecast any constituency in any British election (General, Scottish, Welsh, London, UK European or your local council) - order UK-Elect: Available products and prices

Notes: The maps, graphics, results and predictions included on this web site were all produced by UK-Elect. A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only.  The forecast base was the 2001 General Election constituency situation, adjusted to take account of the new Scottish parliamentary boundaries. Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only. The "change from adjusted current situation" column represents the change from the  the current situation f the latest boundary changes are taken into consideration. The Labour Majority shown simply excludes the Speaker from majority calculations.

What if the Tories overtook Labour in votes?  What if the Liberal Democrat vote surged?  What if the Labour vote slumped?  What if the Tories reach 40%?  What if Tactical Voting explodes? What if main Parties get equal votes?

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