Forecast for Conservative Target Seats after 5% Swing

This chart shows the forecast effect of a 5% swing from Labour to the Conservatives . The seats are sorted according to the forecast Conservative percentage majority (or shortfall). Seats gained are shown in bold.

5% Con to Lab 5% Con to Lab (Lab Targets) May 1997 5% Lab to Con 5% Lab To Con (Con Targets) 10% Lab to Con 10% Lab To Con (Con Targets) 15% Lab to Con 15% Lab To Con (Con Targets)

Pos. Constituency Winner Votes Gain Info. Majority Swing Info.

1

 Wellingborough [Sir Peter Fry] Con 27481 Lab 22040 LDm 5279 UKInd 1192 NLP 297 Con gain from Lab 5441 (9.67%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

2

 Kettering [Roger Freeman] Con 27308 Lab 21803 LDm 6098 Ref 1551 NLP 197 Con gain from Lab 5505 (9.67%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

3

 Milton Keynes North East [Peter Butler] Con 22522 Lab 17640 LDm 8907 Ref 1492 Grn 576 NLP 99 Con gain from Lab 4882 (9.53%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

4

 Rugby & Kenilworth [James Pawsey] Con 28921 Lab 23296 LDm 8737 NLP 251 Con gain from Lab 5625 (9.19%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

5

 Northampton South [Michael Morris] Con 26325 Lab 21359 LDm 6316 Ref 1405 UKInd 1159 NLP 541 Con gain from Lab 4966 (8.70%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

6

 Romford [Sir Michael Neubert] Con 19643 Lab 16082 LDm 3341 Ref 1431 Lib 1100 BNP 522 Con gain from Lab 3561 (8.45%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

7

 Lancaster & Wyre [Keith Mans] Con 26821 Lab 22230 LDm 6802 Ref 1516 Grn 795 UKInd 698 Con gain from Lab 4591 (7.80%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

8

 Harwich [Iain Sproat] Con 22199 Lab 18065 LDm 7037 Ref 4923 CRP 1290 Con gain from Lab 4134 (7.73%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

9

 Castle Point [Dr Robert Spink] Con 21917 Lab 18177 LDm 4477 Ref 2700 IDCP 1301 Con gain from Lab 3740 (7.70%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

10

 Norfolk North West [Henry Bellingham] Con 26790 Lab 22371 LDm 5513 Ref 2923 Con gain from Lab 4419 (7.67%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

11

 Harrow West [Robert Hughes] Con 23196 Lab 19186 LDm 8127 Ref 1997 Con gain from Lab 4010 (7.64%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

12

 Bristol West [William Waldegrave] Con 23707 Lab 18936 LDm 17551 Ref 1304 Grn 852 SocLab 244 NLP 47 Con gain from Lab 4771 (7.62%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

13

 Braintree [Tony Newton] Con 25056 Lab 20951 LDm 6418 Ref 2165 Grn 712 NewWay 274 Con gain from Lab 4105 (7.39%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

14

 Shrewsbury & Atcham [Derek Conway] Con 21581 Lab 17717 LDm 13838 Ref 1346 UKInd 477 CFSS 257 PPP 128 Con gain from Lab 3864 (6.98%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

15

 Enfield Southgate [Michael Portillo] Con 21463 Lab 18244 LDm 4966 Ref 1342 CDem 289 Mal 229 Con gain from Lab 3219 (6.92%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

16

 Gillingham [James Couchman] Con 20741 Lab 17653 LDm 9649 Ref 1492 UKInd 590 Lny 305 BNP 195 NLP 58 Con gain from Lab 3088 (6.09%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

17

 Sittingbourne & Sheppey [Sir Roger Moate] Con 19102 Lab 16415 LDm 8447 Ref 1082 Lny 644 UKInd 472 Con gain from Lab 2687 (5.82%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

18

 Clwyd West [Roderick Richards] Con 15082 Lab 12906 PC 5421 LDm 5151 Ref 1114 Cvty 583 Con gain from Lab 2176 (5.41%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

19

 Stroud [Roger Knapman] Con 26377 Lab 23053 LDm 9502 Grn 3415 Con gain from Lab 3324 (5.33%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

20

 Winchester [Gerry Malone] Con 29200 LDm 26100 Lab 3426 Ref 1598 TCLD 640 UKInd 476 Lny 307 IndAFE 307 Con gain from LDm 3100 (5.00%) Swing LDm to Con 22.32%

21

 Falmouth & Cambourne [Sebastian Coe] Con 18144 Lab 15470 LDm 13512 Ref 3534 IndL 1691 Lib 527 UKInd 355 MK 238 Lny 161 Con gain from Lab 2674 (4.99%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

22

 Torbay [Rupert Allason] Con 23748 LDm 21094 Lab 5257 UKInd 1962 Lib 1161 RDrm 100 Con gain from LDm 2654 (4.98%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

23

 Kingston & Surbiton [Richard Tracey] Con 23138 LDm 20411 Lab 10028 Ref 1470 UKInd 418 NLP 100 RDrm 100 Con gain from LDm 2727 (4.90%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

24

 Hastings & Rye [Jacqui Lait] Con 16760 Lab 14414 LDm 13717 Ref 2511 Lib 1046 UKInd 472 Lny 149 Con gain from Lab 2346 (4.78%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

25

 Somerton & Frome [Mark Robinson] Con 25424 LDm 22684 Lab 6515 Ref 2449 UKInd 331 Con gain from LDm 2740 (4.77%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

26

 Warwick & Leamington [Sir Dudley Smith] Con 26353 Lab 23743 LDm 7133 Ref 1484 Grn 764 UKInd 306 EDP 183 NLP 125 Con gain from Lab 2610 (4.34%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

27

 Shipley [Sir Marcus Fox] Con 22609 Lab 20319 LDm 7984 Ref 1960 Con gain from Lab 2290 (4.33%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

28

 Chatham & Aylesford [Richard Knox-Johnston] Con 20859 Lab 18733 LDm 7389 Ref 1538 UKInd 493 NLP 149 Con gain from Lab 2126 (4.32%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

29

 Newark [Richard Alexander] Con 23078 Lab 20898 LDm 5960 Ref 2035 Con gain from Lab 2180 (4.19%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

30

 Wirral West [David Hunt] Con 20641 Lab 18691 LDm 5945 Ref 1613 Con gain from Lab 1950 (4.16%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

31

 Wimbledon [Sir C. Goodson-Wickes] Con 20111 Lab 18257 LDm 8014 Ref 993 Grn 474 ProLife 346 MBBBQ 112 RDrm 47 Con gain from Lab 1854 (3.83%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

32

 Reading West [Nicholas Bennett] Con 21263 Lab 19422 LDm 6153 Ref 976 BNP 320 UKInd 255 Con gain from Lab 1841 (3.80%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

33

 Eastwood [Paul Cullen] Con 20141 Lab 18155 SNP 6826 LDm 6110 Ref 497 ProLife 393 UKInd 113 Con gain from Lab 1986 (3.80%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

34

 Finchley & Golders Green [John Marshall] Con 22506 Lab 20665 LDm 5670 Ref 684 Grn 576 UKInd 205 Con gain from Lab 1841 (3.66%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

35

 Eastleigh [Stephen Reid] Con 21473 LDm 19453 Lab 12109 Ref 2013 UKInd 446 Con gain from LDm 2020 (3.64%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

36

 Thanet South [Jonathan Aitken] Con 20148 Lab 18528 LDm 5263 UKInd 631 Grn 418 Con gain from Lab 1620 (3.60%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

37

 Illford North [Vivian Bendall] Con 22353 Lab 20693 LDm 5049 BNP 750 Con gain from Lab 1660 (3.40%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

38

 Hemel Hempstead [Robert Jones] Con 24293 Lab 22421 LDm 6789 Ref 1327 NLP 262 Con gain from Lab 1872 (3.40%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

39

 Wrekin The [Peter Bruinvels] Con 20481 Lab 18980 LDm 5807 Con gain from Lab 1501 (3.32%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

40

 Upminster [Sir Nicholas Bonsor] Con 18380 Lab 17020 LDm 3919 Ref 2000 Con gain from Lab 1360 (3.29%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

41

 Putney [David Mellor] Con 19307 Lab 17885 LDm 4739 Ref 1518 UKInd 233 Stan 101 SportsA 90 NLP 66 IndBeaut 49 RenDem 7 Con gain from Lab 1422 (3.23%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

42

 Selby [Ken Hind] Con 24817 Lab 23023 LDm 6778 Ref 1162 UKInd 536 Con gain from Lab 1794 (3.19%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

43

 Croydon Central [David Congdon] Con 24324 Lab 22643 LDm 6061 Ref 1886 Grn 595 UKInd 290 Con gain from Lab 1681 (3.01%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

44

 Bexleyheath & Crayford [David Evennett] Con 20938 Lab 19531 LDm 5391 Ref 1551 BNP 429 UKInd 383 Con gain from Lab 1407 (2.92%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

45

 Hammersmith & Fulham [Matthew Carrington] Con 24121 Lab 22561 LDm 4728 Ref 1023 NLab 695 Grn 562 UKInd 183 NLP 79 Care 74 Con gain from Lab 1560 (2.89%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

46

 Gedling [Andrew Mitchell] Con 23196 Lab 21782 LDm 5180 Ref 2006 Con gain from Lab 1414 (2.71%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

47

 Weston-Super-Mare [Margaret Daly] Con 22801 LDm 21407 Lab 6889 Ref 2280 Con gain from LDm 1394 (2.61%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

48

 Reading East [John Watts] Con 20177 Lab 18950 LDm 9307 Ref 1042 NLP 254 UKInd 252 BNP 238 Con gain from Lab 1227 (2.44%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

49

 Lewes [Tim Rathbone] Con 22408 LDm 21250 Lab 2774 Ref 2481 UKInd 256 Con gain from LDm 1158 (2.36%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

50

 Brighton Kemptown [Sir Andrew Bowden] Con 20251 Lab 19173 LDm 4478 Ref 1526 SocLab 316 NLP 172 Lny 123 RDrm 93 Con gain from Lab 1078 (2.34%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

51

 Leeds North West [Dr Keith Hampson] Con 18318 Lab 17226 LDm 11689 Ref 1325 SocLab 335 ProLife 251 RRP 232 Con gain from Lab 1092 (2.21%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

52

 Colchester [Stephan Shakespeare] Con 18905 LDm 17886 Lab 13291 Ref 1776 NLP 148 Con gain from LDm 1019 (1.96%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

53

 Hove [Robert Guy] Con 19905 Lab 19052 LDm 4645 Ref 1931 IndC 1735 Grn 644 UKInd 209 Con gain from Lab 853 (1.77%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

54

 Devon West & Torridge [Iain Liddell-Grainger] Con 25744 LDm 24744 Lab 4362 Ref 1946 UKInd 1841 Lib 508 Con gain from LDm 1000 (1.69%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

55

 Dartford [Robert Dunn] Con 23549 Lab 22679 LDm 4827 BNP 428 FDP 287 CDem 228 Con gain from Lab 870 (1.67%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

56

 Stafford [David Cameron] Con 22880 Lab 22018 LDm 5480 Ref 1146 Lny 248 Con gain from Lab 862 (1.66%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

57

 Northavon [Sir John Cope] Con 27489 LDm 26500 Lab 6641 Ref 1900 Con gain from LDm 989 (1.58%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

58

 Bradford West [Mohammed Riaz] Con 17333 Lab 16654 LDm 6737 SocLab 1551 Ref 1348 Grn 861 BNP 839 SP 245 Con gain from Lab 679 (1.49%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

59

 Monmouth [Roger Evans] Con 21677 Lab 20953 LDm 4689 Ref 1190 PC 516 Con gain from Lab 724 (1.48%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

60

 Colne Valley [Graham Riddick] Con 21265 Lab 20465 LDm 12755 SocLab 759 Grn 493 UKInd 478 Lny 196 Con gain from Lab 800 (1.42%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

61

 Wansdyke [Mark Prisk] Con 22054 Lab 21381 LDm 9205 Ref 1327 UKInd 438 Lny 225 NLP 92 Con gain from Lab 673 (1.23%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

62

 St Albans [David Rutley] Con 19419 Lab 18798 LDm 10692 Ref 1619 RDrm 166 NLP 111 Con gain from Lab 621 (1.22%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

63

 Aberdeen South [Raymond Robertson] Con 13824 Lab 13338 LDm 12176 SNP 4299 Ref 425 Con gain from Lab 486 (1.10%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

64

 Taunton [David Nicholson] Con 26671 LDm 26064 Lab 5198 Ref 2760 BNP 318 Con gain from LDm 607 (0.99%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

65

 Ribble South [Robert Atkins] Con 23533 Lab 23095 LDm 5879 Ref 1475 Lib 1127 NLP 122 Con gain from Lab 438 (0.79%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

66

 Scarborough & Whitby [John Sykes] Con 22383 Lab 22075 LDm 7672 Ref 2191 Con gain from Lab 308 (0.57%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

67

 Sutton & Cheam [Lady Olga Maitland] Con 20176 LDm 19919 Lab 4926 Ref 1784 UKInd 191 NLP 96 Con gain from LDm 257 (0.55%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

68

 Portsmouth North [Peter Griffiths] Con 19279 Lab 19076 LDm 4788 Ref 1757 UKInd 298 WsxReg 72 Con gain from Lab 203 (0.45%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

69

 Broxtowe [Sir James Lester] Con 24674 Lab 24437 LDm 6934 Ref 2092 Con gain from Lab 237 (0.41%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

70

 Carshalton & Wallington [Nigel Forman] Con 18644 LDm 18490 Lab 9144 Ref 1289 Grn 377 BNP 261 UKInd 218 Con gain from LDm 154 (0.32%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

71

 Birmingham Edgbaston [Andrew Marshall] Con 21135 Lab 21131 LDm 4691 Ref 1065 BDP 443 Con gain from Lab 4 (0.01%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

72

 Richmond Park [Dr Jenny Tonge] LDm 25393 Con 25284 Lab 4330 Ref 1467 Lny 204 NLP 102 RDrm 73 LDm hold 109 (0.19%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

73

 Wolverhampton South West [Jenny Jones] Lab 22211 Con 21985 LDm 4012 Lib 713 Lab hold 226 (0.46%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

74

 Watford [Claire Ward] Lab 22258 Con 21988 LDm 9272 Ref 1484 NLP 234 Lab hold 270 (0.49%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

75

 Brent North [Barry Gardiner] Lab 17435 Con 17232 LDm 3104 NLP 204 RDrm 199 Lab hold 203 (0.53%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

76

 Welwyn Hatfield [Melanie Johnson] Lab 22288 Con 21989 LDm 7161 RA 1263 ProLife 267 Lab hold 299 (0.56%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

77

 Edinburgh Pentlands [Linda Clark] Lab 17388 Con 17100 SNP 5952 LDm 4575 Ref 422 Grn 224 UKInd 81 Lab hold 288 (0.63%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

78

 Gravesham [Chris Pond] Lab 23798 Con 23343 LDm 4128 Ref 1441 Ind 414 NLP 129 Lab hold 455 (0.85%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

79

 Loughborough [Andrew Reed] Lab 22830 Con 22354 LDm 6190 Ref 991 Lab hold 476 (0.91%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

80

 Swindon South [Julia Drown] Lab 21385 Con 20856 LDm 7371 Ref 1273 Route66 181 NLP 96 Lab hold 529 (1.03%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

81

 Calder Valley [Christine McCafferty] Lab 23227 Con 22618 LDm 8322 Ref 1380 Grn 488 BNP 431 Lab hold 609 (1.08%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

82

 Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine [Sir Robert Smith] LDm 17742 Con 17239 SNP 5639 Lab 1764 Ref 805 LDm hold 503 (1.16%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

83

 Battersea [Martin Linton] Lab 21678 Con 21056 LDm 3482 Ref 804 UKInd 250 RDrm 127 Lab hold 622 (1.31%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

84

 Stourbridge [Debra Shipley] Lab 20967 Con 20292 LDm 7123 Ref 1319 Lab hold 675 (1.36%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

85

 Burton [Janet Dean] Lab 25085 Con 24205 LDm 4617 NatDem 604 Lab hold 880 (1.61%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

86

 Pudsey [Paul Truswell] Lab 22734 Con 21799 LDm 7375 Ref 823 Lab hold 935 (1.77%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

87

 Conwy [Roger Roberts] LDm 12965 Lab 12483 Con 12163 PC 2844 Ref 760 AltLD 250 NLP 95 LDm gain from Lab 482 (1.16%) Swing Lab to LDm 2.50%

88

 Medway [Robert Marshall-Andrews] Lab 19621 Con 18741 LDm 4555 Ref 1420 UKInd 405 Lab hold 880 (1.97%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

89

 Perth [Roseanna Cunningham] SNP 16209 Con 15295 Lab 8809 LDm 3583 Ref 366 UKInd 289 SNP hold 914 (2.05%) Swing SNP to Con 2.50%

90

 Morecambe & Lunesdale [Geraldine Smith] Lab 21599 Con 20558 LDm 5614 Ref 1313 NLP 165 Lab hold 1041 (2.11%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

91

 Hendon [Andrew Dismore] Lab 22182 Con 21029 LDm 5427 Ref 978 UKInd 267 WRP 153 Lab hold 1153 (2.30%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

92

 Twickenham [Dr Vincent Cable] LDm 26237 Con 24863 Lab 6158 IndECR 589 RDrm 155 NLP 142 LDm hold 1374 (2.36%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

93

 Wyre Forest [David Lock] Lab 24091 Con 22649 LDm 4377 Ref 1956 Lib 1670 UKInd 312 Lab hold 1442 (2.62%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

94

 Forest of Dean [Diana Organ] Lab 21694 Con 20369 LDm 6165 Ref 1624 IndRFD 218 21stCIF 80 IndF 34 Lab hold 1325 (2.64%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

95

 Hornchurch [John Cryer] Lab 19869 Con 18583 LDm 3446 Ref 1595 TW 259 ProLife 189 Lab hold 1286 (2.93%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

96

 Batley & Spen [Mike Wood] Lab 20865 Con 19420 LDm 4133 Ref 1691 BNP 472 Grn 384 Lab hold 1445 (3.08%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

97

 Portsmouth South [Mike Hancock] LDm 20421 Con 18678 Lab 10502 Ref 1629 Lib 184 UKInd 141 NLP 140 LDm hold 1743 (3.37%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

98

 Brigg & Goole [Ian Cawsey] Lab 21153 Con 19444 LDm 4692 Ref 1513 Lab hold 1709 (3.65%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

99

 Redditch [Ms Jacqui Smith] Lab 20043 Con 18392 LDm 4935 Ref 1151 NLP 227 Lab hold 1651 (3.69%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

100

 Isle of Wight [Dr Peter Brand] LDm 31274 Con 28525 Lab 5989 Ref 4734 UKInd 1072 IInd 848 Grn 544 NLP 87 RainIsl 86 LDm hold 2749 (3.76%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

101

 Keighley [Ann Cryer] Lab 23465 Con 21481 LDm 5064 Ref 1470 Lab hold 1984 (3.85%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

102

 Tweedale Ettrick & Lauderdale [Michael Moore] LDm 12178 Con 10573 Lab 8739 SNP 6671 Ref 406 Lib 387 NLP 47 LDm hold 1605 (4.12%) Swing Lab to LDm 2.50%

103

 Tayside North [John Swinney] SNP 20447 Con 18566 LDm 3716 Lab 2862 SNP hold 1881 (4.13%) Swing SNP to Con 2.50%

104

 Gloucester [Tess Kingham] Lab 26048 Con 23579 LDm 6069 Ref 1482 UKInd 455 NLP 281 Lab hold 2469 (4.26%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

105

 Bury North [David Chaytor] Lab 25771 Con 23409 LDm 4536 Ref 1337 Lab hold 2362 (4.29%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

106

 Enfield North [Joan Ryan] Lab 21765 Con 19709 LDm 4264 Ref 857 BNP 590 UKInd 484 Lab hold 2056 (4.31%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

107

 Bolton West [Ruth Kelly] Lab 21884 Con 19728 LDm 5309 SocLab 1374 Ref 865 Lab hold 2156 (4.39%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

108

 Worcester [Michael Foster] Lab 23268 Con 21003 LDm 6462 UKInd 886 Lab hold 2265 (4.39%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

109

 Wirral South [Ben Chapman] Lab 22095 Con 19899 LDm 5018 Ref 768 ProLife 264 NLP 51 Lab hold 2196 (4.57%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

110

 Ayr [Sandra Osborne] Lab 19442 Con 17373 SNP 5625 LDm 2116 Ref 200 Lab hold 2069 (4.62%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

111

 Stirling [Anne McGuire] Lab 18235 Con 16118 SNP 5752 LDm 2675 UKInd 154 Value 24 Lab hold 2117 (4.93%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

112

 Tamworth [Brian Jenkins] Lab 23316 Con 20804 LDm 4025 Ref 1163 UKInd 369 Lib 177 Lab hold 2512 (5.04%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

113

 Peterborough [Helen Brinton] Lab 21944 Con 19463 LDm 5170 Ref 924 NLP 334 UKInd 317 ProLife 275 Lab hold 2481 (5.12%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

114

 Erewash [Elizabeth Blackman] Lab 28180 Con 25077 LDm 5181 Ref 1404 SocLab 496 Lab hold 3103 (5.14%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

115

 Oxford West & Abingdon [Dr Evan Harris] LDm 26268 Con 23042 Lab 9302 Ref 1258 Grn 691 UKInd 258 ProLife 238 NLP 91 LGR 48 LDm hold 3226 (5.27%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

116

 Leeds North East [Fabian Hamilton] Lab 20093 Con 17684 LDm 6318 Ref 946 SocLab 468 Lab hold 2409 (5.29%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

117

 High Peak [Tom Levitt] Lab 26195 Con 23118 LDm 6420 Ref 1420 Lab hold 3077 (5.38%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

118

 Swindon North [Michael Wills] Lab 21616 Con 18754 LDm 6237 Ref 1533 NLP 130 Lab hold 2862 (5.93%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

119

 Elmet [Colin Burgon] Lab 25644 Con 22273 LDm 4691 Ref 1487 Lab hold 3371 (6.23%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

120

 Crosby [Clare Curtis-Tansley] Lab 20342 Con 17574 LDm 5080 Ref 813 Lib 233 NLP 99 Lab hold 2768 (6.27%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

121

 Devon North [Nick Harvey] LDm 27824 Con 24384 Lab 2626 LDm hold 3440 (6.27%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

122

 Cornwall South East [Colin Breed] LDm 27044 Con 23435 Lab 4487 UKInd 1428 MK 573 Lib 268 NLP 197 LDm hold 3609 (6.28%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

123

 Ealing North [Stephen Pound] Lab 27118 Con 23530 LDm 3887 UKInd 689 Grn 502 Lab hold 3588 (6.44%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

124

 Inverness East Nairn & Lochaber [Fergus Ewing] SNP 13848 Lab 13799 Con 10743 LDm 8364 Ref 436 Grn 354 CU 224 SNP gain from Lab 49 (0.10%) Swing Lab to SNP 2.50%

125

 Blackpool North & Fleetwood [Joan Humble] Lab 25364 Con 21792 LDm 4600 Ref 1704 BNP 288 Lab hold 3572 (6.65%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

126

 Cardiff North [Julie Morgan] Lab 22036 Con 18758 LDm 5294 PC 1201 Ref 1199 Lab hold 3278 (6.76%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

127

 Brecon & Radnorshire [Richard Livsey] LDm 17516 Con 14563 Lab 9280 Ref 900 PC 622 LDm hold 2953 (6.89%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

128

 Bedford [Patrick Hall] Lab 22327 Con 18921 LDm 6044 Ref 1503 NLP 149 Lab hold 3406 (6.96%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

129

 Harrow East [Tony McNulty] Lab 27078 Con 23038 LDm 4697 Ref 1537 UKInd 464 NLP 171 Lab hold 4040 (7.09%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

130

 Chorley [Lindsay Hoyle] Lab 27722 Con 23622 LDm 4900 Ref 1319 NLP 143 Lab hold 4100 (7.10%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

131

 Southport [Ronnie Fearn] LDm 24346 Con 20715 Lab 3596 Ref 1368 Lib 386 NLP 93 NatDem 92 LDm hold 3631 (7.18%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

132

 Norwich North [Dr Ian Gibson] Lab 24594 Con 20628 LDm 6951 Ref 1777 LCP 512 SocLab 495 NLP 100 Lab hold 3966 (7.20%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

133

 Hereford [Paul Keetch] LDm 25198 Con 21177 Lab 3969 Ref 2209 LDm hold 4021 (7.65%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

134

 Great Yarmouth [Tony Wright] Lab 23640 Con 19860 LDm 5381 Lab hold 3780 (7.73%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

135

 Harrogate & Knaresborough [Phil Willis] LDm 24558 Con 20704 Lab 1777 LC 614 LDm hold 3854 (8.09%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

136

 Cleethorpes [Shona McIsaac] Lab 23535 Con 19405 LDm 5746 Ref 1787 Lab hold 4130 (8.18%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

137

 Cheltenham [Nigel Jones] LDm 24877 Con 20747 Lab 2585 Ref 1065 Lny 375 UKInd 302 ProLife 245 NLP 107 LDm hold 4130 (8.21%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

138

 St Ives [Andrew George] LDm 23966 Con 19491 Lab 5489 Ref 3714 UKInd 567 Lib 425 RAlt 178 BHMBCM 71 LDm hold 4475 (8.30%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

139

 Galloway & Upper Nithsdale [Alasdair Morgan] SNP 18449 Con 14925 Lab 4761 LDm 2700 Ind 566 Ref 428 UKInd 189 SNP hold 3524 (8.39%) Swing SNP to Con 2.50%

140

 Chester City of [Christine Russell] Lab 26994 Con 22065 LDm 5353 Ref 1487 Lny 204 WCCC 154 Lab hold 4929 (8.76%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

141

 Derby North [Bob Laxton] Lab 27037 Con 22036 LDm 5059 Ref 1816 ProLife 195 Lab hold 5001 (8.91%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

142

 Exeter [Ben Bradshaw] Lab 26305 Con 20786 LDm 11148 Lib 2062 Grn 643 UKInd 638 UKPP 282 Lab hold 5519 (8.92%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

143

 Moray [Margaret Ewing] SNP 16529 Con 12951 Lab 5898 LDm 3548 Ref 840 SNP hold 3578 (9.00%) Swing SNP to Con 2.50%

144

 Dewsbury [Ann Taylor] Lab 19133 Con 15116 LDm 4422 BNP 2232 Ref 1019 IndL 770 Grn 383 Lab hold 4017 (9.33%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

145

 Northampton North [Ms Sally Keeble] Lab 24663 Con 19831 LDm 6579 UKInd 464 NLP 161 Lab hold 4832 (9.35%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

146

 Dumfries [Russell Brown] Lab 21052 Con 16361 SNP 5977 LDm 5487 Ref 533 NLP 117 Lab hold 4691 (9.47%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

147

 Vale of Glamorgan [John Smith] Lab 26359 Con 21217 LDm 4945 PC 1393 Lab hold 5142 (9.54%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

148

 Warrington South [Helen Southworth] Lab 25967 Con 20668 LDm 7199 Ref 1082 NLP 166 Lab hold 5299 (9.62%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

149

 Staffordshire Moorlands [Charlotte Atkins] Lab 24131 Con 19192 LDm 6191 Ref 1603 Lab hold 4939 (9.66%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

150

 Dudley North [Ross Cranston] Lab 22081 Con 17404 LDm 3939 SocLab 2155 Ref 1201 NF 559 NatDem 469 Lab hold 4677 (9.78%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

151

 Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East [Dr Ashok Kumar] Lab 26640 Con 21391 LDm 4004 Ref 1552 Lab hold 5249 (9.80%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

152

 Plymouth Sutton [Linda Gilroy] Lab 21499 Con 16823 LDm 6613 Ref 1654 UKInd 499 Plym 396 NLP 168 Lab hold 4676 (9.81%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

153

 Newbury [David Rendel] LDm 29887 Con 24193 Ref 992 Grn 644 UKInd 302 Lab 284 SocLab 174 LDm hold 5694 (10.08%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

154

 Birmingham Hall Green [Stephen McCabe] Lab 20282 Con 16042 LDm 4034 Ref 1461 Lab hold 4240 (10.14%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

155

 Edinburgh West [Donald Gorrie] LDm 20578 Con 15706 Lab 6567 SNP 4210 Ref 277 Lib 263 AS 30 LDm hold 4872 (10.23%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

156

 Milton Keynes South West [Phyllis Starkey] Lab 24761 Con 19543 LDm 6065 NLP 389 Lab hold 5218 (10.28%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

157

 Luton North [Kelvin Hopkins] Lab 23494 Con 18600 LDm 4299 UKInd 689 NLP 250 Lab hold 4894 (10.34%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

158

 Preseli Pembrokeshire [Jackie Lawrence] Lab 18357 Con 13861 LDm 5527 PC 2683 Ref 1574 Grn 401 Lab hold 4496 (10.60%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

159

 Bristol North West [Doug Naysmith] Lab 24813 Con 18955 LDm 7263 IndL 1718 Ref 1609 SocLab 482 BNP 265 NLP 140 Lab hold 5858 (10.60%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

160

 Halesowen & Rowley Regis [Sylvia Heal] Lab 23928 Con 18467 LDm 4169 Ref 1244 NatDem 592 Grn 361 Lab hold 5461 (11.20%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

161

 Amber Valley [Judy Mallaber] Lab 27205 Con 21068 LDm 4219 Ref 2283 Lab hold 6137 (11.20%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

162

 Rossendale & Darwen [Mrs Janet Anderson] Lab 24910 Con 19081 LDm 5435 Ref 1108 BNP 674 Lab hold 5829 (11.38%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

163

 Gordon [Malcolm Bruce] LDm 17999 Con 13114 SNP 8435 Lab 2238 Ref 459 LDm hold 4885 (11.56%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

164

 Ipswich [Jamie Cann] Lab 23066 Con 17463 LDm 5881 Ref 1637 UKInd 208 NLP 107 Lab hold 5603 (11.59%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

165

 Dover [Gwyn Prosser] Lab 26825 Con 20506 LDm 4302 Ref 2124 UKInd 443 Lab hold 6319 (11.66%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

166

 Coventry South [Jim Cunningham] Lab 23005 Con 17064 LDm 4617 SP 3262 Ref 943 Lib 725 BNP 328 RDrm 180 Lab hold 5941 (11.85%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

167

 Oldham East & Saddleworth [Phil Woolas] Lab 19841 LDm 19157 Con 13371 Ref 1116 SocLab 470 NLP 146 Lab hold 684 (1.26%) Swing Lab to LDm 2.50%

168

 Corby [Phil Hope] Lab 27191 Con 20725 LDm 4045 Ref 1356 UKInd 507 NLP 133 Lab hold 6466 (11.98%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

169

 Harlow [Bill Rammell] Lab 23471 Con 17737 LDm 4523 Ref 1422 UKInd 340 BNP 319 Lab hold 5734 (11.99%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

170

 Waveney [Robert Blizzard] Lab 29016 Con 22223 LDm 5054 Ind 318 Lab hold 6793 (12.00%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

171

 Tynemouth [Alan Campbell] Lab 25761 Con 19602 LDm 4509 Ref 819 UKInd 462 Lab hold 6159 (12.04%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

172

 Halifax [Alice Mahon] Lab 24938 Con 18780 LDm 6059 UKInd 779 Lab hold 6158 (12.18%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

173

 Stockton South [Dari Taylor] Lab 26185 Con 19810 LDm 4721 Ref 1400 Lab hold 6375 (12.23%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

174

 Bath [Donald Foster] LDm 26169 Con 19549 Lab 6129 Ref 1192 Grn 580 UKInd 315 NLP 55 LDm hold 6620 (12.26%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

175

 Stevenage [Barbara Follett] Lab 25871 Con 19427 LDm 4588 Ref 1194 ProLife 196 NLP 110 Lab hold 6444 (12.54%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

176

 Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South [Nick Ainger] Lab 18824 Con 13467 PC 5402 LDm 3516 Ref 1432 Lab hold 5357 (12.56%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

177

 Blackpool South [Gordon Marsden] Lab 26715 Con 20233 LDm 4392 Lab hold 6482 (12.63%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

178

 Vale of Clwyd [Chris Ruane] Lab 18661 Con 13618 LDm 3425 PC 2301 Ref 834 UKInd 293 Lab hold 5043 (12.89%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

179

 Ynys Mon [Ieuan Wyn Jones] PC 15756 Lab 11279 Con 10565 LDm 1537 Ref 793 PC hold 4477 (11.21%) Swing Lab to PC 2.50%

180

 Pendle [Gordon Prentice] Lab 22708 Con 16586 LDm 5460 Ref 2281 Lab hold 6122 (13.02%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

181

 Sheffield Hallam [Richard Allan] LDm 23345 Con 17347 Lab 3874 Ref 788 SIP 125 LDm hold 5998 (13.19%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

182

 Crawley [Laura Moffatt] Lab 25230 Con 18563 LDm 4141 Ref 1931 UKInd 322 JP 230 Lab hold 6667 (13.22%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

183

 Derbyshire South [Mark Todd] Lab 29711 Con 21740 LDm 5408 Ref 2491 UKInd 617 Lab hold 7971 (13.29%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

184

 Eltham [Clive Efford] Lab 21539 Con 15699 LDm 3701 Ref 1414 Lib 584 BNP 491 Lab hold 5840 (13.45%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

185

 Luton South [Margaret Moran] Lab 24019 Con 17518 LDm 4610 Ref 1205 UKInd 390 Grn 356 NLP 86 Lab hold 6501 (13.49%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

186

 Cardiff Central [Jon Owen Jones] Lab 16352 Con 10582 LDm 10541 SocLab 2230 PC 1504 Ref 760 Lny 204 NLP 80 Lab hold 5770 (13.66%) Swing Lab to LDm 2.50%

187

 Hyndburn [Greg Pope] Lab 24418 Con 17796 LDm 4141 Ref 1627 IAC 290 Lab hold 6622 (13.72%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

188

 Kingswood [Dr Roger Berry] Lab 29187 Con 20922 LDm 7672 Ref 1463 BNP 290 NLP 238 Scrapit 115 Lab hold 8265 (13.80%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

189

 Lincoln [Gillian Meron] Lab 23236 Con 16760 LDm 5048 Ref 1329 NLP 175 Lab hold 6476 (13.91%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

190

 Bury South [Ivan Lewis] Lab 26142 Con 18741 LDm 4227 Ref 1216 Lab hold 7401 (14.71%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

191

 Montgomeryshire [Lembit Opik] LDm 14647 Con 9940 Lab 4513 PC 1608 Ref 879 Grn 338 LDm hold 4707 (14.74%) Swing LDm to Con 2.50%

192

 Basildon [Angela Smith] Lab 26992 Con 19020 LDm 4608 Ref 2462 Lab hold 7972 (15.02%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

193

 Bethnal Green & Bow [Oona King] Lab 18463 Con 11646 LDm 5361 BNP 3350 Lib 2963 RLab 1117 Grn 812 Ref 557 SocLab 413 Lab hold 6817 (15.26%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

194

 Nuneaton [Bill Olner] Lab 27405 Con 19215 LDm 4732 Ref 1533 Loc. Ind 390 UKInd 238 Lab hold 8190 (15.30%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

195

 Leicestershire North West [David Taylor] Lab 26731 Con 18714 LDm 4492 Ref 2088 Lab hold 8017 (15.41%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

196

 Edinburgh South [Nigel Griffiths] Lab 18752 Con 11782 LDm 7911 SNP 5791 Ref 504 NLP 98 Lab hold 6970 (15.54%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

197

 Brentford & Isleworth [Ann Keen] Lab 29443 Con 20631 LDm 4613 Grn 687 UKInd 614 NLP 147 Lab hold 8812 (15.70%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

198

 Bolton North East [David Crausby] Lab 25161 Con 17412 LDm 4862 Ref 1096 SocLab 676 Lab hold 7749 (15.75%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

199

 Edinburgh Central [Alistair Darling] Lab 17989 Con 11191 SNP 6750 LDm 5605 Grn 607 Ref 495 IndDem 98 Lab hold 6798 (15.91%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

200

 Southampton Test [Alan Whitehead] Lab 25774 Con 17334 LDm 7171 Ref 1397 LCP 388 UKInd 219 Glow 81 NLP 77 Lab hold 8440 (16.09%) Swing Lab to Con 5.00%

Notes: Table was generated by UK-Elect v4.5, based on 1997 General Election results. The names in square brackets are the candidates who previously represented the party now forecast to win. Where the Conservatives are second the additional swing required to win a seat can be obtained by halving the majority. The table filtering was set to include constituencies in Great Britain only (excluding Northern Ireland). All forecasts are based on a swing from the 1997 results, but the gain and swing details in the table are comparisons with the current situation in that constituency, which may have been the result of a by-election.

April 1992 May 1997 Feb 2000 Mar 2000 Apr 2000 May 2000 Jun 2000 Jul 2000 Aug 2000 Sep 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Dec 2000 Jan 2001 Feb 2001 Mar 2001 April 2001 May 2001 June 2001 5% Swing Con-Lab 5% Swing Lab-Con 10% Swing Lab-Con 15% Swing Lab-Con

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