Forecast for Labour Target Seats after 5% Swing

This chart shows the forecast effect of a 5% swing from Conservative to Labour. The seats are sorted according to the forecast Labour percentage majority (or shortfall). Seats gained by any party are shown in bold.

5% Con to Lab 5% Con to Lab (Lab Targets) May 1997 5% Lab to Con 5% Lab To Con (Con Targets) 10% Lab to Con 10% Lab To Con (Con Targets) 15% Lab to Con 15% Lab To Con (Con Targets)

Pos.	Constituency	Winner	Votes	Gain Info.	Majority	Swing Info.
1	Dorset South	[Jim Knight]	Lab 20137 Con 15296 LDm 9936 Ref 2791 UKInd 861 NLP 161	Lab gain from Con	4841 (9.84%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
2	Bedfordshire South West	[Andrew Date]	Lab 24045 Con 18891 LDm 7559 Ref 1761 UKInd 446 NLP 162	Lab gain from Con	5154 (9.75%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
3	Hexham	[Ian McMinn]	Lab 19762 Con 15418 LDm 7959 Ref 1362 UKInd 1170	Lab gain from Con	4344 (9.51%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
4	Lichfield	[Susan Woodward]	Lab 23044 Con 18424 LDm 5473 Ref 1652	Lab gain from Con	4620 (9.51%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
5	Bury St Edmunds	[Mark Ereira-Guyer]	Lab 23698 Con 18514 LDm 10102 Ref 2939 NLP 272	Lab gain from Con	5184 (9.34%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
6	Meriden	[Brian Seymour-Smith]	Lab 25150 Con 20262 LDm 7098 Ref 2208	Lab gain from Con	4888 (8.93%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
7	Boston & Skegness	[Phil McCauley]	Lab 21431 Con 17422 LDm 7721	Lab gain from Con	4009 (8.61%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
8	Beverley & Holderness	[Norman O'Neill]	Lab 23465 Con 18982 LDm 9689 UKInd 695 NLP 111	Lab gain from Con	4483 (8.47%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
9	Uxbridge	[Andrew Slaughter]	Lab 19448 Con 16018 LDm 4528 Ref 1153 SP 398	Lab gain from Con	3430 (8.26%)	Swing Con to Lab 10.04%
10	Bosworth	[Andrew Furlong]	Lab 22769 Con 18582 LDm 9281 Ref 1521	Lab gain from Con	4187 (8.03%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
11	Chipping Barnet	[Geoff Cooke]	Lab 22760 Con 18839 LDm 6121 Ref 1190 Lny 253 ProLife 243 NLP 159	Lab gain from Con	3921 (7.91%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
12	Norfolk Mid	[Daniel Zeichner]	Lab 24275 Con 19867 LDm 8617 Ref 3229 Grn 1254 NLP 215	Lab gain from Con	4408 (7.67%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
13	Eddisbury	[M Hanson]	Lab 22314 Con 18555 LDm 6540 Ref 2041	Lab gain from Con	3759 (7.60%)	Swing Con to Lab 6.13%
14	Billericay	[Paul Richards]	Lab 23448 Con 19262 LDm 8763 LC 3377 ProLife 570	Lab gain from Con	4186 (7.55%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
15	Altrincham & Sale West	[Jane Baugh]	Lab 23432 Con 19759 LDm 6535 Ref 1348 ProLife 313 UKInd 270 NLP 125	Lab gain from Con	3673 (7.09%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
16	Suffolk West	[Michael Jefferys]	Lab 20668 Con 17627 LDm 6892 Ref 3724 NLP 171	Lab gain from Con	3041 (6.20%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
17	Norfolk South West	[Adrian Heffernan]	Lab 25169 Con 21755 LDm 8178 Ref 3694	Lab gain from Con	3414 (5.81%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
18	Basingstoke	[Nigel Lickley]	Lab 25210 Con 21895 LDm 9714 Ind 310	Lab gain from Con	3315 (5.80%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
19	Shropshire North	[Ian Lucas]	Lab 21110 Con 18155 LDm 10489 Ref 1764	Lab gain from Con	2955 (5.74%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
20	Wycombe	[Chris Bryant]	Lab 21135 Con 18275 LDm 9678 Ref 2394 Grn 716 NLP 121	Lab gain from Con	2860 (5.47%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
21	Grantham & Stamford	[Peter Denning]	Lab 22628 Con 20024 LDm 6612 Ref 2721 UKInd 556 ProLife 314 NLP 115	Lab gain from Con	2604 (4.92%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
22	Aldridge-Brownhills	[Janos Toth]	Lab 21648 Con 19538 LDm 5184	Lab gain from Con	2110 (4.55%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
23	Thanet North	[Iris Johnston]	Lab 21267 Con 19139 LDm 5576 Ref 2535 UKInd 438	Lab gain from Con	2128 (4.35%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
24	Suffolk Coastal	[Mark Campbell]	Lab 21254 Con 18884 LDm 12036 Ref 3416 Grn 514 NLP 152	Lab gain from Con	2370 (4.21%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
25	Hertfordshire North East	[Ivan Gibbons]	Lab 21223 Con 19113 LDm 9493 Ref 2166	Lab gain from Con	2110 (4.06%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
26	Hertsmere	[Beth Kelly]	Lab 21747 Con 19788 LDm 6466 Ref 1703 UKInd 453 NLP 191	Lab gain from Con	1959 (3.89%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
27	Spelthorne	[Keith Dibble]	Lab 22428 Con 20711 LDm 6821 Ref 1495 UKInd 462	Lab gain from Con	1717 (3.31%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
28	Suffolk Central & Ipswich North	[Carole Jones]	Lab 21596 Con 19852 LDm 10886 Ind 489	Lab gain from Con	1744 (3.30%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
29	Yorkshire East	[Ian Male]	Lab 20015 Con 18456 LDm 9070 SDm 1049 NatDem 381	Lab gain from Con	1559 (3.18%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
30	Old Bexley & Sidcup	[Richard Justham]	Lab 20608 Con 19039 LDm 8284 Ref 2457 UKInd 489 BNP 415 NLP 99	Lab gain from Con	1569 (3.05%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
31	Stone	[John Wakefield]	Lab 23694 Con 22206 LDm 6392 Lib 545 NLP 237	Lab gain from Con	1488 (2.80%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
32	Canterbury	[Cheryl Hall]	Lab 19654 Con 18208 LDm 12854 Ref 2460 Grn 588 UKInd 281 NLP 64	Lab gain from Con	1446 (2.67%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
33	Havant	[Lynne Armstrong]	Lab 17891 Con 16788 LDm 10806 Ref 2395 BIPFP 442	Lab gain from Con	1103 (2.28%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
34	Suffolk South	[Paul Bishop]	Lab 17825 Con 16804 LDm 14395 Ref 2740 NLP 211	Lab gain from Con	1021 (1.96%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
35	Banbury	[Hazel Peperell]	Lab 23261 Con 22154 LDm 9761 Ref 2245 Grn 530 UKInd 364 NLP 131	Lab gain from Con	1107 (1.89%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
36	Rushcliffe	[Jocelyn Pettit]	Lab 25608 Con 24453 LDm 8851 Ref 2682 UKInd 403 NLP 115	Lab gain from Con	1155 (1.86%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
37	Faversham & Kent Mid	[Alan Stewart]	Lab 20323 Con 19536 LDm 6138 Ref 2073 Lny 511 UKInd 431 Grn 380 GRLNSP 115 NLP 99	Lab gain from Con	787 (1.59%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
38	Derbyshire West	[Christopher Seeley]	Lab 21904 Con 21101 LDm 9940 Ref 2499 IndGrn 593 UKInd 484 Lny 281 IndBB 81	Lab gain from Con	803 (1.41%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
39	Tweedale Ettrick & Lauderdale	[Keith Geddes]	Lab 12639 LDm 12178 Con 6673 SNP 6671 Ref 406 Lib 387 NLP 47	Lab gain from LDm	461 (1.18%)	Swing LDm to Lab 2.50%
40	Colchester	[Roderick Green]	Lab 18491 LDm 17886 Con 13705 Ref 1776 NLP 148	Lab gain from LDm	605 (1.16%)	Swing LDm to Lab 2.50%
41	Rochford & Southend East	[Nigel Smith]	Lab 20787 Con 20354 LDm 4387 Lib 1070	Lab gain from Con	433 (0.93%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
42	Beckenham	[Bob Hughes]	Lab 20848 Con 20367 LDm 9858 Ref 1663 Lib 720 UKInd 506 NF 388	Lab gain from Con	481 (0.89%)	Swing Con to Lab 2.37%
43	Cambridgeshire North East	[Virginia Bucknor]	Lab 21525 Con 21084 LDm 9070 Ref 2636 SocLab 851 NLP 259	Lab gain from Con	441 (0.80%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
44	Bromsgrove	[Peter McDonald]	Lab 22335 Con 22010 LDm 6200 Ref 1411 UKInd 251	Lab gain from Con	325 (0.62%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
45	Sleaford & North Hykeham	[Sean Harriss]	Lab 20893 Con 20700 LDm 8063 Ref 2942 Ind 578	Lab gain from Con	193 (0.36%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
46	Ashford	[John Ennals]	Lab 20308 Con 20135 LDm 10901 Ref 3201 Grn 660 NLP 89	Lab gain from Con	173 (0.31%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
47	Epping Forest	[Stephen Murray]	Lab 21515 Con 21467 LDm 7074 Ref 2208 BNP 743	Lab gain from Con	48 (0.09%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
48	Charnwood	[Stephen Dorrell]	Con 23302 Lab 23018 LDm 7224 Ref 2104 BNP 525	Con hold	284 (0.51%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
49	Essex North	[Bernard Jenkin]	Con 19920 Lab 19564 LDm 10028 UKInd 1202 Grn 495	Con hold	356 (0.70%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
50	Wantage	[Robert Jackson]	Con 19509 Lab 19074 LDm 14822 Ref 1549 Grn 640 UKInd 465	Con hold	435 (0.78%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
51	Ynys Mon	[Ieuan Wyn Jones]	PC 15756 Lab 15271 Con 6573 LDm 1537 Ref 793	PC hold	485 (1.21%)	Swing PC to Lab 2.50%
52	Bedfordshire North East	[Sir Nicholas Lyell]	Con 19792 Lab 18947 LDm 7179 Ref 2490 IndC 1842 NLP 138	Con hold	845 (1.68%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
53	Daventry	[Tim Boswell]	Con 25528 Lab 24324 LDm 9233 Ref 2018 UKInd 443 NLP 204	Con hold	1204 (1.95%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
54	Blaby	[Andrew Robathan]	Con 21885 Lab 20769 LDm 8001 Ref 2018 BNP 523 Ind 397	Con hold	1116 (2.08%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
55	Cities of London & Westminster	[Peter Brooke]	Con 16974 Lab 16107 LDm 4933 Ref 1161 Barts 266 UKInd 215 NLP 176 Lny 138 Hemp 112 RDrm 73	Con hold	867 (2.16%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
56	Witney	[Shaun Woodward]	Con 21462 Lab 20074 LDm 11202 Ref 2262 UKInd 765 Grn 636	Con gain from Lab	1388 (2.46%)	Seat regained after defection
57	Hertford & Stortford	[Bowen Wells]	Con 21299 Lab 19870 LDm 9679 Ref 2105 UKInd 1223 ProLife 259 Logic 126	Con hold	1429 (2.62%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
58	Hitchin & Harpenden	[Peter Lilley]	Con 21417 Lab 19988 LDm 10515 NLP 290 SP 217	Con hold	1429 (2.73%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
59	Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross	[Robert Maclennan]	LDm 10381 Lab 9580 SNP 6710 Con 1690 Ref 369 Grn 230 UKInd 212	LDm hold	801 (2.75%)	Swing LDm to Lab 2.50%
60	Chingford & Woodford Green	[Iain Duncan Smith]	Con 18887 Lab 17617 LDm 6885 BNP 1059	Con hold	1270 (2.86%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
61	Gosport	[Peter Viggers]	Con 18668 Lab 17244 LDm 9479 Ref 2538 Ind 426	Con hold	1424 (2.94%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
62	Eastleigh	[David Chidgey]	LDm 19453 Lab 17657 Con 15925 Ref 2013 UKInd 446	LDm hold	1796 (3.24%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%
63	Southwark North & Bermondsey	[Simon Hughes]	LDm 19831 Lab 18483 Con 796 BNP 713 Ref 545 CommL 175 Lib 157 NatDem 95	LDm hold	1348 (3.30%)	Swing LDm to Lab 2.50%
64	Bedfordshire Mid	[Jonathan Sayeed]	Con 21551 Lab 19711 LDm 8823 Ref 2257 NLP 174	Con hold	1840 (3.50%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
65	Congleton	[Ann Winterton]	Con 19342 Lab 17384 LDm 15882 UKInd 811	Con hold	1958 (3.67%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%
66	Louth & Horncastle	[Sir Peter Tapsell]	Con 19202 Lab 17296 LDm 12207 Grn 1248	Con hold	1906 (3.82%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
67	Bridgwater	[Michael Hoban]	LDm 18378 Con 17443 Lab 16250 Ref 2551	LDm gain from Con	935 (1.71%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%
68	Devon South West	[Gary Streeter]	Con 20055 Lab 17902 LDm 12542 Ref 1668 UKInd 491 NLP 159	Con hold	2153 (4.08%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
69	Norfolk South	[John MacGregor]	Con 21831 Lab 19292 LDm 17557 Ref 2533 Grn 484 UKInd 400	Con hold	2539 (4.09%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%
70	Broxbourne	[Marion Roe]	Con 20604 Lab 18647 LDm 5310 Ref 1633 BNP 610 TW 172	Con hold	1957 (4.17%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
71	Folkestone & Hythe	[Michael Howard]	Con 17711 Lab 15541 LDm 13981 Ref 4188 UKInd 378 SP 182 CFSS 69	Con hold	2170 (4.17%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%
72	Norfolk North	[Norman Lamb]	LDm 20163 Con 18516 Lab 17676 Ref 2458	LDm gain from Con	1647 (2.80%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%
73	Chelmsford West	[Simon Burns]	Con 20853 Lab 18364 LDm 17090 Ref 1536 Grn 411 UKInd 323	Con hold	2489 (4.25%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%
74	Gainsborough	[Edward Leigh]	Con 18204 Lab 16156 LDm 13436	Con hold	2048 (4.28%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
75	Ross Skye & Inverness West	[Charles Kennedy]	LDm 15472 Lab 13450 SNP 7821 Con 2371 Ref 535 Grn 306	LDm hold	2022 (5.06%)	Swing LDm to Lab 2.50%
76	Staffordshire South	[Sir Patrick Cormack]	Con 23013 Lab 20302 LDm 5797 Ref 2002	Con hold	2711 (5.30%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
77	Bognor Regis & Littlehampton	[Nick Gibb]	Con 18215 Lab 15538 LDm 11153 UKInd 1537	Con hold	2677 (5.76%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
78	Cambridgeshire North West	[Dr Brian Mawhinney]	Con 21048 Lab 18174 LDm 7388 Ref 1939 UKInd 269	Con hold	2874 (5.89%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
79	South Holland & The Deepings	[John Hayes]	Con 22185 Lab 19206 LDm 7836 NPC 902	Con hold	2979 (5.94%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
80	Macclesfield	[Nicholas Winterton]	Con 24179 Lab 20943 LDm 9075	Con hold	3236 (5.97%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
81	Southend West	[David Amess]	Con 15704 LDm 15414 Lab 12925 Ref 1734 UKInd 636 NLP 101	Con hold	290 (0.62%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%
82	Reigate	[Crispin Blunt]	Con 18715 Lab 15790 LDm 9615 Ref 3352 Ind 412 UKInd 290	Con hold	2925 (6.07%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
83	Cambridgeshire South East	[James Paice]	Con 21557 Lab 17888 LDm 14246 Ref 2838 Fair 167 NLP 111	Con hold	3669 (6.46%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
84	Worthing East & Shoreham	[Tim Loughton]	Con 18286 LDm 15766 Lab 14913 Ref 1683 UKInd 921	Con hold	2520 (4.89%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%
85	Perth	[Roseanna Cunningham]	SNP 16209 Lab 13263 Con 10841 LDm 3583 Ref 366 UKInd 289	SNP hold	2946 (6.61%)	Swing Con to SNP 2.50%
86	Harborough	[Edward Garnier]	Con 19520 Lab 15982 LDm 15646 Ref 1859	Con hold	3538 (6.67%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%
87	Rutland & Melton	[Alan Duncan]	Con 21476 Lab 17902 LDm 10112 Ref 2317 UKInd 823	Con hold	3574 (6.79%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
88	Cambridgeshire South	[Andrew Lansley]	Con 19888 Lab 16169 LDm 13860 Ref 3300 UKInd 298 NLP 168	Con hold	3719 (6.93%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%
89	Ludlow	[Christopher Gill]	Con 17319 Lab 14059 LDm 13724 Grn 798 UKInd 385	Con hold	3260 (7.04%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%
90	Bournemouth West	[John Butterfill]	Con 15062 Lab 12146 LDm 11405 Ref 1910 UKInd 281 BNP 165 NLP 103	Con hold	2916 (7.10%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%
91	Fylde	[Michael Jack]	Con 22840 Lab 19083 LDm 7609 Ref 2372 NLP 163	Con hold	3757 (7.22%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
92	Ruislip-Northwood	[John Wilkinson]	Con 20285 Lab 16973 LDm 7279 NLP 296	Con hold	3312 (7.39%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
93	Woking	[Humfrey Malins]	Con 17008 LDm 13875 Lab 13240 IndC 3933 Ref 2209 UKInd 512 NLP 137	Con hold	3133 (6.15%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%
94	Bracknell	[Andrew Mackay]	Con 25029 Lab 20550 LDm 9122 NLab 1909 Ref 1636 UKInd 569 ProLife 276	Con hold	4479 (7.58%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
95	Maidstone & The Weald	[Ann Widdecombe]	Con 20977 Lab 16734 LDm 11986 Ref 1998 SocLab 979 Grn 480 UKInd 339 NLP 115	Con hold	4243 (7.91%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
96	Hertfordshire South West	[Richard Page]	Con 22692 Lab 18211 LDm 12381 Ref 1853 NLP 274	Con hold	4481 (8.09%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
97	Vale of York	[Anne McIntosh]	Con 21152 Lab 16757 LDm 12656 Ref 2503 SDm 197	Con hold	4395 (8.25%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
98	Worcestershire Mid	[Peter Luff]	Con 21552 Lab 17220 LDm 9458 Ref 1780 UKInd 646 NLP 163	Con hold	4332 (8.52%)	Swing Con to Lab 5.00%
99	Aldershot	[Gerald Howarth]	Con 20412 LDm 16498 Lab 15764 UKInd 794 Ind 361 BNP 322	Con hold	3914 (7.23%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%
100	Devizes	[Michael Ancram]	Con 22709 Lab 17552 LDm 15928 Ref 3021 UKInd 622 NLP 204	Con hold	5157 (8.59%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.50%

Notes: Table was generated by UK-Elect v4.5, based on 1997 General Election results. The names in square brackets are the candidates who previously represented the party now forecast to win. Where the Conservatives are second the additional swing required to win a seat can be obtained by halving the majority. The table filtering was set to include constituencies in Great Britain only (excluding Northern Ireland). All forecasts are based on a swing from the 1997 results, but the gain and swing details in the table are comparisons with the current situation in that constituency, which may have been the result of a by-election.

April 1992 May 1997 Feb 2000 Mar 2000 Apr 2000 May 2000 Jun 2000 Jul 2000 Aug 2000 Sep 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Dec 2000 Jan 2001 Feb 2001 Mar 2001 April 2001 May 2001 June 2001 5% Swing Con-Lab 5% Swing Lab-Con 10% Swing Lab-Con 15% Swing Lab-Con

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