UK-Elect Forecast Showing 5% Swing from Conservative to Labour:
This forecast shows the effect of a simple 5% swing from Conservative to Labour.
5% Con to Lab 5% Con to Lab (Lab Targets) May 1997 5% Lab to Con 5% Lab To Con (Con Targets) 10% Lab to Con 10% Lab To Con (Con Targets) 15% Lab to Con 15% Lab To Con (Con Targets)
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Notes: A simple 5% uniform percentage swing was applied. The resulting UK vote percentages (GB percentages in brackets) were Labour 48.2 (49.32), Conservative 25.7 (26.46), Liberal Democrat 16.77 (17.2).The forecast base was the 1997 General Election constituency situation. Only the Labour and Conservative votes were adjusted - the results for all other parties reflect the situation at the time of the last General Election in May 1997. Seats are coloured in proportion to the percentage lead (the more pronounced the colour for a party, the greater the lead).
April 1992 May 1997 Feb 2000 Mar 2000 Apr 2000 May 2000 Jun 2000 Jul 2000 Aug 2000 Sep 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Dec 2000 Jan 2001 Feb 2001 Mar 2001 April 2001 May 2001 June 2001 5% Swing Con-Lab 5% Swing Lab-Con 10% Swing Lab-Con 15% Swing Lab-Con
