Forecast for Conservative Target Seats after 15% Swing

This chart shows the forecast effect of a 15% swing from Labour to the Conservatives . The seats are sorted according to the forecast Conservative percentage majority (or shortfall). Seats gained by any party are shown in bold.

5% Con to Lab 5% Con to Lab (Lab Targets) May 1997 5% Lab to Con 5% Lab To Con (Con Targets) 10% Lab to Con 10% Lab To Con (Con Targets) 15% Lab to Con 15% Lab To Con (Con Targets)

Pos. Constituency Winner Votes Gain Info. Majority Swing Info.

1

 Wellingborough [Sir Peter Fry] Con 33110 Lab 16411 LDm 5279 UKInd 1192 NLP 297 Con gain from Lab 16699 (29.67%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

2

 Kettering [Roger Freeman] Con 33004 Lab 16107 LDm 6098 Ref 1551 NLP 197 Con gain from Lab 16897 (29.67%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

3

 Milton Keynes North East [Peter Butler] Con 27646 Lab 12516 LDm 8907 Ref 1492 Grn 576 NLP 99 Con gain from Lab 15130 (29.53%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

4

 Rugby & Kenilworth [James Pawsey] Con 35041 Lab 17176 LDm 8737 NLP 251 Con gain from Lab 17865 (29.19%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

5

 Northampton South [Michael Morris] Con 32035 Lab 15649 LDm 6316 Ref 1405 UKInd 1159 NLP 541 Con gain from Lab 16386 (28.69%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

6

 Romford [Sir Michael Neubert] Con 23855 Lab 11870 LDm 3341 Ref 1431 Lib 1100 BNP 522 Con gain from Lab 11985 (28.46%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

7

 Lancaster & Wyre [Keith Mans] Con 32707 Lab 16344 LDm 6802 Ref 1516 Grn 795 UKInd 698 Con gain from Lab 16363 (27.80%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

8

 Harwich [Iain Sproat] Con 27551 Lab 12713 LDm 7037 Ref 4923 CRP 1290 Con gain from Lab 14838 (27.73%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

9

 Castle Point [Dr Robert Spink] Con 26774 Lab 13320 LDm 4477 Ref 2700 IDCP 1301 Con gain from Lab 13454 (27.70%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

10

 Norfolk North West [Henry Bellingham] Con 32550 Lab 16611 LDm 5513 Ref 2923 Con gain from Lab 15939 (27.67%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

11

 Harrow West [Robert Hughes] Con 28446 Lab 13936 LDm 8127 Ref 1997 Con gain from Lab 14510 (27.63%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

12

 Braintree [Tony Newton] Con 30614 Lab 15393 LDm 6418 Ref 2165 Grn 712 NewWay 274 Con gain from Lab 15221 (27.39%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

13

 Enfield Southgate [Michael Portillo] Con 26116 Lab 13591 LDm 4966 Ref 1342 CDem 289 Mal 229 Con gain from Lab 12525 (26.92%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

14

 Gillingham [James Couchman] Con 25809 Lab 12585 LDm 9649 Ref 1492 UKInd 590 Lny 305 BNP 195 NLP 58 Con gain from Lab 13224 (26.09%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

15

 Sittingbourne & Sheppey [Sir Roger Moate] Con 23718 Lab 11799 LDm 8447 Ref 1082 Lny 644 UKInd 472 Con gain from Lab 11919 (25.82%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

16

 Clwyd West [Roderick Richards] Con 19108 Lab 8880 PC 5421 LDm 5151 Ref 1114 Cvty 583 Con gain from Lab 10228 (25.41%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

17

 Stroud [Roger Knapman] Con 32612 Lab 16818 LDm 9502 Grn 3415 Con gain from Lab 15794 (25.33%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

18

 Warwick & Leamington [Sir Dudley Smith] Con 32362 Lab 17734 LDm 7133 Ref 1484 Grn 764 UKInd 306 EDP 183 NLP 125 Con gain from Lab 14628 (24.34%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

19

 Shipley [Sir Marcus Fox] Con 27896 Lab 15032 LDm 7984 Ref 1960 Con gain from Lab 12864 (24.33%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

20

 Chatham & Aylesford [Richard Knox-Johnston] Con 25775 Lab 13817 LDm 7389 Ref 1538 UKInd 493 NLP 149 Con gain from Lab 11958 (24.32%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

21

 Newark [Richard Alexander] Con 28275 Lab 15701 LDm 5960 Ref 2035 Con gain from Lab 12574 (24.19%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

22

 Wirral West [David Hunt] Con 25330 Lab 14002 LDm 5945 Ref 1613 Con gain from Lab 11328 (24.16%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

23

 Shrewsbury & Atcham [Derek Conway] Con 27115 LDm 13838 Lab 12183 Ref 1346 UKInd 477 CFSS 257 PPP 128 Con gain from Lab 13277 (23.99%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

24

 Wimbledon [Sir C. Goodson-Wickes] Con 24947 Lab 13421 LDm 8014 Ref 993 Grn 474 ProLife 346 MBBBQ 112 RDrm 47 Con gain from Lab 11526 (23.84%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

925

 Reading West [Nicholas Bennett] Con 26102 Lab 14583 LDm 6153 Ref 976 BNP 320 UKInd 255 Con gain from Lab 11519 (23.80%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

26

 Eastwood [Paul Cullen] Con 25365 Lab 12931 SNP 6826 LDm 6110 Ref 497 ProLife 393 UKInd 113 Con gain from Lab 12434 (23.80%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

27

 Finchley & Golders Green [John Marshall] Con 27536 Lab 15635 LDm 5670 Ref 684 Grn 576 UKInd 205 Con gain from Lab 11901 (23.66%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

28

 Thanet South [Jonathan Aitken] Con 24647 Lab 14029 LDm 5263 UKInd 631 Grn 418 Con gain from Lab 10618 (23.60%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

29

 Hemel Hempstead [Robert Jones] Con 29802 Lab 16912 LDm 6789 Ref 1327 NLP 262 Con gain from Lab 12890 (23.40%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

30

 Illford North [Vivian Bendall] Con 27237 Lab 15809 LDm 5049 BNP 750 Con gain from Lab 11428 (23.40%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

31

 Wrekin The [Peter Bruinvels] Con 25008 Lab 14453 LDm 5807 Con gain from Lab 10555 (23.32%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

32

 Upminster [Sir Nicholas Bonsor] Con 22512 Lab 12888 LDm 3919 Ref 2000 Con gain from Lab 9624 (23.29%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

33

 Putney [David Mellor] Con 23707 Lab 13485 LDm 4739 Ref 1518 UKInd 233 Stan 101 SportsA 90 NLP 66 IndBeaut 49 RenDem 7 Con gain from Lab 10222 (23.23%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

34

 Selby [Ken Hind] Con 30449 Lab 17391 LDm 6778 Ref 1162 UKInd 536 Con gain from Lab 13058 (23.19%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

35

 Croydon Central [David Congdon] Con 29904 Lab 17063 LDm 6061 Ref 1886 Grn 595 UKInd 290 Con gain from Lab 12841 (23.01%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

36

 Bexleyheath & Crayford [David Evennett] Con 25760 Lab 14709 LDm 5391 Ref 1551 BNP 429 UKInd 383 Con gain from Lab 11051 (22.92%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

37

 Hammersmith & Fulham [Matthew Carrington] Con 29523 Lab 17159 LDm 4728 Ref 1023 NLab 695 Grn 562 UKInd 183 NLP 79 Care 74 Con gain from Lab 12364 (22.89%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

38

 Gedling [Andrew Mitchell] Con 28412 Lab 16566 LDm 5180 Ref 2006 Con gain from Lab 11846 (22.71%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

39

 Reading East [John Watts] Con 25199 Lab 13928 LDm 9307 Ref 1042 NLP 254 UKInd 252 BNP 238 Con gain from Lab 11271 (22.44%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

40

 Brighton Kemptown [Sir Andrew Bowden] Con 24864 Lab 14560 LDm 4478 Ref 1526 SocLab 316 NLP 172 Lny 123 RDrm 93 Con gain from Lab 10304 (22.34%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

41

 Leeds North West [Dr Keith Hampson] Con 23256 Lab 12288 LDm 11689 Ref 1325 SocLab 335 ProLife 251 RRP 232 Con gain from Lab 10968 (22.21%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

42

 Hove [Robert Guy] Con 24717 Lab 14240 LDm 4645 Ref 1931 IndC 1735 Grn 644 UKInd 209 Con gain from Lab 10477 (21.77%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

43

 Dartford [Robert Dunn] Con 28749 Lab 17479 LDm 4827 BNP 428 FDP 287 CDem 228 Con gain from Lab 11270 (21.67%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

44

 Stafford [David Cameron] Con 28057 Lab 16841 LDm 5480 Ref 1146 Lny 248 Con gain from Lab 11216 (21.66%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

45

 Bradford West [Mohammed Riaz] Con 21890 Lab 12097 LDm 6737 SocLab 1551 Ref 1348 Grn 861 BNP 839 SP 245 Con gain from Lab 9793 (21.49%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

46

 Monmouth [Roger Evans] Con 26579 Lab 16051 LDm 4689 Ref 1190 PC 516 Con gain from Lab 10528 (21.47%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

47

 Colne Valley [Graham Riddick] Con 26906 Lab 14824 LDm 12755 SocLab 759 Grn 493 UKInd 478 Lny 196 Con gain from Lab 12082 (21.42%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

48

 Wansdyke [Mark Prisk] Con 27526 Lab 15909 LDm 9205 Ref 1327 UKInd 438 Lny 225 NLP 92 Con gain from Lab 11617 (21.23%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

49

 St Albans [David Rutley] Con 24499 Lab 13718 LDm 10692 Ref 1619 RDrm 166 NLP 111 Con gain from Lab 10781 (21.22%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

50

 Ribble South [Robert Atkins] Con 29056 Lab 17572 LDm 5879 Ref 1475 Lib 1127 NLP 122 Con gain from Lab 11484 (20.79%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

51

 Scarborough & Whitby [John Sykes] Con 27815 Lab 16643 LDm 7672 Ref 2191 Con gain from Lab 11172 (20.57%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

52

 Portsmouth North [Peter Griffiths] Con 23806 Lab 14549 LDm 4788 Ref 1757 UKInd 298 WsxReg 72 Con gain from Lab 9257 (20.45%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

53

 Broxtowe [Sir James Lester] Con 30488 Lab 18623 LDm 6934 Ref 2092 Con gain from Lab 11865 (20.41%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

54

 Birmingham Edgbaston [Andrew Marshall] Con 25981 Lab 16285 LDm 4691 Ref 1065 BDP 443 Con gain from Lab 9696 (20.01%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

55

 Bristol West [William Waldegrave] Con 29971 LDm 17551 Lab 12672 Ref 1304 Grn 852 SocLab 244 NLP 47 Con gain from Lab 12420 (19.83%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

56

 Wolverhampton South West [Nicholas Budgen] Con 26877 Lab 17319 LDm 4012 Lib 713 Con gain from Lab 9558 (19.54%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

57

 Watford [Robert Gordon] Con 27512 Lab 16734 LDm 9272 Ref 1484 NLP 234 Con gain from Lab 10778 (19.51%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

58

 Brent North [Sir Rhodes Boyson] Con 21050 Lab 13617 LDm 3104 NLP 204 RDrm 199 Con gain from Lab 7433 (19.47%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

59

 Welwyn Hatfield [David Evans] Con 27286 Lab 16991 LDm 7161 RA 1263 ProLife 267 Con gain from Lab 10295 (19.44%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

60

 Edinburgh Pentlands [Malcolm Rifkind] Con 21674 Lab 12814 SNP 5952 LDm 4575 Ref 422 Grn 224 UKInd 81 Con gain from Lab 8860 (19.37%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

61

 Gravesham [Jacques Arnold] Con 28668 Lab 18473 LDm 4128 Ref 1441 Ind 414 NLP 129 Con gain from Lab 10195 (19.14%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

62

 Loughborough [Kenneth Andrew] Con 27590 Lab 17594 LDm 6190 Ref 991 Con gain from Lab 9996 (19.09%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

63

 Swindon South [Simon Coombs] Con 25972 Lab 16269 LDm 7371 Ref 1273 Route66 181 NLP 96 Con gain from Lab 9703 (18.97%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

64

 Calder Valley [Sir Donald Thompson] Con 28264 Lab 17581 LDm 8322 Ref 1380 Grn 488 BNP 431 Con gain from Lab 10683 (18.92%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

65

 Battersea [John Bowis] Con 25796 Lab 16938 LDm 3482 Ref 804 UKInd 250 RDrm 127 Con gain from Lab 8858 (18.69%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

66

 Stourbridge [Warren Hawksley] Con 25262 Lab 15997 LDm 7123 Ref 1319 Con gain from Lab 9265 (18.64%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

67

 Falmouth & Cambourne [Sebastian Coe] Con 23507 LDm 13512 Lab 10107 Ref 3534 IndL 1691 Lib 527 UKInd 355 MK 238 Lny 161 Con gain from Lab 9995 (18.64%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

68

 Burton [Sir Ivan Lawrence] Con 29656 Lab 19634 LDm 4617 NatDem 604 Con gain from Lab 10022 (18.39%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

69

 Pudsey [Peter Bone] Con 27072 Lab 17461 LDm 7375 Ref 823 Con gain from Lab 9611 (18.23%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

70

 Medway [Dame Peggy Fenner] Con 23215 Lab 15147 LDm 4555 Ref 1420 UKInd 405 Con gain from Lab 8068 (18.03%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

71

 Morecambe & Lunesdale [Sir Mark Lennox-Boyd] Con 25483 Lab 16674 LDm 5614 Ref 1313 NLP 165 Con gain from Lab 8809 (17.89%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

72

 Hendon [Sir John Gorst] Con 26033 Lab 17178 LDm 5427 Ref 978 UKInd 267 WRP 153 Con gain from Lab 8855 (17.70%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

73

 Wyre Forest [Anthony Coombs] Con 28155 Lab 18585 LDm 4377 Ref 1956 Lib 1670 UKInd 312 Con gain from Lab 9570 (17.38%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

74

 Forest of Dean [Paul Marland] Con 25387 Lab 16676 LDm 6165 Ref 1624 IndRFD 218 21stCIF 80 IndF 34 Con gain from Lab 8711 (17.36%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

75

 Hornchurch [Robin Squire] Con 22977 Lab 15475 LDm 3446 Ref 1595 TW 259 ProLife 189 Con gain from Lab 7502 (17.07%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

76

 Batley & Spen [Elizabeth Peacock] Con 24116 Lab 16169 LDm 4133 Ref 1691 BNP 472 Grn 384 Con gain from Lab 7947 (16.92%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

77

 Brigg & Goole [Donald Stewart] Con 24124 Lab 16473 LDm 4692 Ref 1513 Con gain from Lab 7651 (16.35%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

78

 Redditch [Anthea McIntyre] Con 22867 Lab 15568 LDm 4935 Ref 1151 NLP 227 Con gain from Lab 7299 (16.31%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

79

 Hastings & Rye [Jacqui Lait] Con 21667 LDm 13717 Lab 9507 Ref 2511 Lib 1046 UKInd 472 Lny 149 Con gain from Lab 7950 (16.20%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

80

 Keighley [Gary Waller] Con 26629 Lab 18317 LDm 5064 Ref 1470 Con gain from Lab 8312 (16.15%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

81

 Gloucester [Douglas French] Con 29371 Lab 20256 LDm 6069 Ref 1482 UKInd 455 NLP 281 Con gain from Lab 9115 (15.74%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

82

 Bury North [Alistair Burt] Con 28914 Lab 20266 LDm 4536 Ref 1337 Con gain from Lab 8648 (15.71%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

83

 Enfield North [Mark Field] Con 24476 Lab 16998 LDm 4264 Ref 857 BNP 590 UKInd 484 Con gain from Lab 7478 (15.69%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

84

 Bolton West [Thomas Sackville] Con 24644 Lab 16968 LDm 5309 SocLab 1374 Ref 865 Con gain from Lab 7676 (15.61%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

85

 Worcester [Nicholas Bourne] Con 26165 Lab 18106 LDm 6462 UKInd 886 Con gain from Lab 8059 (15.61%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

86

 Wirral South [Les Byrom] Con 24709 Lab 17285 LDm 5018 Ref 768 ProLife 264 NLP 51 Con gain from Lab 7424 (15.44%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

87

 Ayr [Phil Gallie] Con 21849 Lab 14966 SNP 5625 LDm 2116 Ref 200 Con gain from Lab 6883 (15.38%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

88

 Stirling [Michael Forsyth] Con 20414 Lab 13939 SNP 5752 LDm 2675 UKInd 154 Value 24 Con gain from Lab 6475 (15.07%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

89

 Winchester [Gerry Malone] Con 35406 LDm 26100 Ref 1598 TCLD 640 UKInd 476 IndAFE 307 Lny 307 Lab -2780 Con gain from LDm 9306 (15.00%) Swing LDm to Con 27.32%

90

 Torbay [Rupert Allason] Con 29080 LDm 21094 UKInd 1962 Lib 1161 RDrm 100 Lab -75 Con gain from LDm 7986 (14.98%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

91

 Tamworth [Lady Ann Lightbown] Con 25790 Lab 18330 LDm 4025 Ref 1163 UKInd 369 Lib 177 Con gain from Lab 7460 (14.96%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

92

 Kingston & Surbiton [Richard Tracey] Con 28704 LDm 20411 Lab 4462 Ref 1470 UKInd 418 NLP 100 RDrm 100 Con gain from LDm 8293 (14.90%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

93

 Peterborough [Jacqueline Foster] Con 24306 Lab 17101 LDm 5170 Ref 924 NLP 334 UKInd 317 ProLife 275 Con gain from Lab 7205 (14.88%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

94

 Erewash [Angela Knight] Con 31111 Lab 22146 LDm 5181 Ref 1404 SocLab 496 Con gain from Lab 8965 (14.86%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

95

 Somerton & Frome [Mark Robinson] Con 31164 LDm 22684 Ref 2449 Lab 775 UKInd 331 Con gain from LDm 8480 (14.77%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

96

 Leeds North East [Timothy Kirkhope] Con 22235 Lab 15542 LDm 6318 Ref 946 SocLab 468 Con gain from Lab 6693 (14.71%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

97

 High Peak [Charles Hendry] Con 28833 Lab 20480 LDm 6420 Ref 1420 Con gain from Lab 8353 (14.62%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

98

 Swindon North [Guy Opperman] Con 23581 Lab 16789 LDm 6237 Ref 1533 NLP 130 Con gain from Lab 6792 (14.07%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

99

 Elmet [Spencer Batiste] Con 27683 Lab 20234 LDm 4691 Ref 1487 Con gain from Lab 7449 (13.77%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

100

 Aberdeen South [Raymond Robertson] Con 18230 LDm 12176 Lab 8932 SNP 4299 Ref 425 Con gain from Lab 6054 (13.74%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

101

 Crosby [Sir Malcolm Thornton] Con 21988 Lab 15928 LDm 5080 Ref 813 Lib 233 NLP 99 Con gain from Lab 6060 (13.73%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

102

 Eastleigh [Stephen Reid] Con 27023 LDm 19453 Lab 6559 Ref 2013 UKInd 446 Con gain from LDm 7570 (13.64%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

103

 Ealing North [Harry Greenway] Con 29102 Lab 21546 LDm 3887 UKInd 689 Grn 502 Con gain from Lab 7556 (13.56%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

104

 Blackpool North & Fleetwood [Harold Elletson] Con 27167 Lab 19989 LDm 4600 Ref 1704 BNP 288 Con gain from Lab 7178 (13.35%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

105

 Cardiff North [Gwilym Jones] Con 23607 Lab 17187 LDm 5294 PC 1201 Ref 1199 Con gain from Lab 6420 (13.24%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

106

 Bedford [Robert Blackman] Con 23815 Lab 17433 LDm 6044 Ref 1503 NLP 149 Con gain from Lab 6382 (13.04%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

107

 Harrow East [Hugh Dykes] Con 28736 Lab 21380 LDm 4697 Ref 1537 UKInd 464 NLP 171 Con gain from Lab 7356 (12.91%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

108

 Chorley [Den Dover] Con 29392 Lab 21952 LDm 4900 Ref 1319 NLP 143 Con gain from Lab 7440 (12.89%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

109

 Norwich North [Dr Robert Kinghorn] Con 26134 Lab 19088 LDm 6951 Ref 1777 LCP 512 SocLab 495 NLP 100 Con gain from Lab 7046 (12.80%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

110

 Weston-Super-Mare [Margaret Daly] Con 28139 LDm 21407 Ref 2280 Lab 1551 Con gain from LDm 6732 (12.61%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

111

 Lewes [Tim Rathbone] Con 27325 LDm 21250 Ref 2481 UKInd 256 Lab -2143 Con gain from LDm 6075 (12.36%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

112

 Great Yarmouth [Michael Carttiss] Con 24748 Lab 18752 LDm 5381 Con gain from Lab 5996 (12.27%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

113

 Colchester [Stephan Shakespeare] Con 24105 LDm 17886 Lab 8091 Ref 1776 NLP 148 Con gain from LDm 6219 (11.96%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

114

 Cleethorpes [Michael Brown] Con 24452 Lab 18488 LDm 5746 Ref 1787 Con gain from Lab 5964 (11.82%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

115

 Devon West & Torridge [Iain Liddell-Grainger] Con 31658 LDm 24744 Ref 1946 UKInd 1841 Lib 508 Lab -1552 Con gain from LDm 6914 (11.69%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

116

 Northavon [Sir John Cope] Con 33742 LDm 26500 Ref 1900 Lab 388 Con gain from LDm 7242 (11.58%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

117

 Chester City of [Gyles Brandreth] Con 27691 Lab 21368 LDm 5353 Ref 1487 Lny 204 WCCC 154 Con gain from Lab 6323 (11.24%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

118

 Derby North [Greg Knight] Con 27650 Lab 21423 LDm 5059 Ref 1816 ProLife 195 Con gain from Lab 6227 (11.09%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

119

 Exeter [Dr Adrian Rogers] Con 26972 Lab 20119 LDm 11148 Lib 2062 Grn 643 UKInd 638 UKPP 282 Con gain from Lab 6853 (11.08%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

120

 Taunton [David Nicholson] Con 32772 LDm 26064 Ref 2760 BNP 318 Lab -903 Con gain from LDm 6708 (10.99%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

121

 Dewsbury [Dr Paul McCormick] Con 19424 Lab 14825 LDm 4422 BNP 2232 Ref 1019 IndL 770 Grn 383 Con gain from Lab 4599 (10.68%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

122

 Northampton North [Tony Marlow] Con 25001 Lab 19493 LDm 6579 UKInd 464 NLP 161 Con gain from Lab 5508 (10.65%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

123

 Sutton & Cheam [Lady Olga Maitland] Con 24885 LDm 19919 Ref 1784 Lab 217 UKInd 191 NLP 96 Con gain from LDm 4966 (10.55%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

124

 Dumfries [Struan Stevenson] Con 21314 Lab 16099 SNP 5977 LDm 5487 Ref 533 NLP 117 Con gain from Lab 5215 (10.53%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

125

 Vale of Glamorgan [Walter Sweeney] Con 26609 Lab 20967 LDm 4945 PC 1393 Con gain from Lab 5642 (10.46%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

126

 Warrington South [Christopher Grayling] Con 26176 Lab 20459 LDm 7199 Ref 1082 NLP 166 Con gain from Lab 5717 (10.38%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

127

 Staffordshire Moorlands [Dr Andrew Ashworth] Con 24304 Lab 19019 LDm 6191 Ref 1603 Con gain from Lab 5285 (10.34%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

128

 Carshalton & Wallington [Nigel Forman] Con 23486 LDm 18490 Lab 4302 Ref 1289 Grn 377 BNP 261 UKInd 218 Con gain from LDm 4996 (10.32%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

129

 Dudley North [Charles MacNamara] Con 22185 Lab 17300 LDm 3939 SocLab 2155 Ref 1201 NF 559 NatDem 469 Con gain from Lab 4885 (10.22%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

130

 Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East [Michael Bates] Con 26750 Lab 21281 LDm 4004 Ref 1552 Con gain from Lab 5469 (10.21%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

131

 Plymouth Sutton [Andrew Crisp] Con 21588 Lab 16734 LDm 6613 Ref 1654 UKInd 499 Plym 396 NLP 168 Con gain from Lab 4854 (10.19%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

132

 Birmingham Hall Green [Andrew Hargreaves] Con 20224 Lab 16100 LDm 4034 Ref 1461 Con gain from Lab 4124 (9.86%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

133

 Richmond Park [Jeremy Hanley] Con 30969 LDm 25393 Ref 1467 Lny 204 NLP 102 RDrm 73 Lab -1355 Con gain from LDm 5576 (9.81%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

134

 Milton Keynes South West [Barry Legg] Con 24619 Lab 19685 LDm 6065 NLP 389 Con gain from Lab 4934 (9.72%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

135

 Luton North [David Senior] Con 23333 Lab 18761 LDm 4299 UKInd 689 NLP 250 Con gain from Lab 4572 (9.66%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

136

 Preseli Pembrokeshire [Robert Buckland] Con 18101 Lab 14117 LDm 5527 PC 2683 Ref 1574 Grn 401 Con gain from Lab 3984 (9.40%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

137

 Bristol North West [Michael Stern] Con 24479 Lab 19289 LDm 7263 IndL 1718 Ref 1609 SocLab 482 BNP 265 NLP 140 Con gain from Lab 5190 (9.39%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

138

 Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine [George Kynoch] Con 21558 LDm 17742 SNP 5639 Ref 805 Lab -2555 Con gain from LDm 3816 (8.84%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

139

 Halesowen & Rowley Regis [John Kennedy] Con 23343 Lab 19052 LDm 4169 Ref 1244 NatDem 592 Grn 361 Con gain from Lab 4291 (8.80%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

140

 Amber Valley [Phillip Oppenheim] Con 26546 Lab 21727 LDm 4219 Ref 2283 Con gain from Lab 4819 (8.80%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

141

 Rossendale & Darwen [Tricia Buzzard] Con 24202 Lab 19789 LDm 5435 Ref 1108 BNP 674 Con gain from Lab 4413 (8.62%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

142

 Ipswich [Stephen Castle] Con 22299 Lab 18230 LDm 5881 Ref 1637 UKInd 208 NLP 107 Con gain from Lab 4069 (8.41%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

143

 Dover [David Shaw] Con 25926 Lab 21405 LDm 4302 Ref 2124 UKInd 443 Con gain from Lab 4521 (8.34%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

144

 Coventry South [Paul Ivey] Con 22076 Lab 17993 LDm 4617 SP 3262 Ref 943 Lib 725 BNP 328 RDrm 180 Con gain from Lab 4083 (8.15%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

145

 Conwy [David Jones] Con 16319 LDm 12965 Lab 8327 PC 2844 Ref 760 AltLD 250 NLP 95 Con gain from Lab 3354 (8.07%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

146

 Corby [William Powell] Con 26121 Lab 21795 LDm 4045 Ref 1356 UKInd 507 NLP 133 Con gain from Lab 4326 (8.02%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

147

 Harlow [Jerry Hayes] Con 22518 Lab 18690 LDm 4523 Ref 1422 UKInd 340 BNP 319 Con gain from Lab 3828 (8.01%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

148

 Waveney [David Porter] Con 27884 Lab 23355 LDm 5054 Ind 318 Con gain from Lab 4529 (8.00%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

149

 Tynemouth [Martin Callanan] Con 24717 Lab 20646 LDm 4509 Ref 819 UKInd 462 Con gain from Lab 4071 (7.96%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

150

 Perth [John Godfrey] Con 19750 SNP 16209 Lab 4354 LDm 3583 Ref 366 UKInd 289 Con gain from SNP 3541 (7.95%) Swing SNP to Con 7.50%

151

 Halifax [Robert Light] Con 23836 Lab 19882 LDm 6059 UKInd 779 Con gain from Lab 3954 (7.82%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

152

 Stockton South [Tim Devlin] Con 25022 Lab 20973 LDm 4721 Ref 1400 Con gain from Lab 4049 (7.77%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

153

 Twickenham [Toby Jessel] Con 30677 LDm 26237 IndECR 589 Lab 344 RDrm 155 NLP 142 Con gain from LDm 4440 (7.64%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

154

 Stevenage [Tim Wood] Con 24565 Lab 20733 LDm 4588 Ref 1194 ProLife 196 NLP 110 Con gain from Lab 3832 (7.46%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

155

 Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South [Owen John Williams] Con 17731 Lab 14560 PC 5402 LDm 3516 Ref 1432 Con gain from Lab 3171 (7.44%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

156

 Blackpool South [Richard Booth] Con 25367 Lab 21581 LDm 4392 Con gain from Lab 3786 (7.37%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

157

 Vale of Clwyd [David Edwards] Con 17531 Lab 14748 LDm 3425 PC 2301 Ref 834 UKInd 293 Con gain from Lab 2783 (7.11%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

158

 Pendle [John Midgeley] Con 21290 Lab 18004 LDm 5460 Ref 2281 Con gain from Lab 3286 (6.99%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

159

 Crawley [Josephine Crabb] Con 23605 Lab 20188 LDm 4141 Ref 1931 UKInd 322 JP 230 Con gain from Lab 3417 (6.78%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

160

 Derbyshire South [Edwina Currie] Con 27737 Lab 23714 LDm 5408 Ref 2491 UKInd 617 Con gain from Lab 4023 (6.71%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

161

 Portsmouth South [David Martin] Con 23848 LDm 20421 Lab 5332 Ref 1629 Lib 184 UKInd 141 NLP 140 Con gain from LDm 3427 (6.63%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

162

 Eltham [Clive Blackwood] Con 20042 Lab 17196 LDm 3701 Ref 1414 Lib 584 BNP 491 Con gain from Lab 2846 (6.55%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

163

 Luton South [Sir Graham Bright] Con 22336 Lab 19201 LDm 4610 Ref 1205 UKInd 390 Grn 356 NLP 86 Con gain from Lab 3135 (6.51%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

164

 Cardiff Central [David Melding] Con 14807 Lab 12127 LDm 10541 SocLab 2230 PC 1504 Ref 760 Lny 204 NLP 80 Con gain from Lab 2680 (6.34%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

165

 Hyndburn [Peter Britcliffe] Con 22623 Lab 19591 LDm 4141 Ref 1627 IAC 290 Con gain from Lab 3032 (6.28%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

166

 Isle of Wight [Andrew Turner] Con 35841 LDm 31274 Ref 4734 UKInd 1072 IInd 848 Grn 544 NLP 87 RainIsl 86 Lab -1327 Con gain from LDm 4567 (6.24%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

167

 Kingswood [Jon Howard] Con 26911 Lab 23198 LDm 7672 Ref 1463 BNP 290 NLP 238 Scrapit 115 Con gain from Lab 3713 (6.20%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

168

 Lincoln [Tony Brown] Con 21415 Lab 18581 LDm 5048 Ref 1329 NLP 175 Con gain from Lab 2834 (6.09%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

169

 Tweedale Ettrick & Lauderdale [Alister Jack] Con 14473 LDm 12178 SNP 6671 Lab 4839 Ref 406 Lib 387 NLP 47 Con gain from LDm 2295 (5.88%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

170

 Tayside North [Bill Walker] Con 23125 SNP 20447 LDm 3716 Lab -1697 Con gain from SNP 2678 (5.87%) Swing SNP to Con 7.50%

171

 Bury South [David Sumberg] Con 23773 Lab 21110 LDm 4227 Ref 1216 Con gain from Lab 2663 (5.29%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

172

 Basildon [JohnBaron] Con 24328 Lab 21684 LDm 4608 Ref 2462 Con gain from Lab 2644 (4.98%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

173

 Bethnal Green & Bow [Kabir Choudbury] Con 16114 Lab 13995 LDm 5361 BNP 3350 Lib 2963 RLab 1117 Grn 812 Ref 557 SocLab 413 Con gain from Lab 2119 (4.74%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

174

 Oxford West & Abingdon [Laurence Harris] Con 29162 LDm 26268 Lab 3182 Ref 1258 Grn 691 UKInd 258 ProLife 238 NLP 91 LGR 48 Con gain from LDm 2894 (4.73%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

175

 Nuneaton [Richard Blunt] Con 24566 Lab 22054 LDm 4732 Ref 1533 Loc. Ind 390 UKInd 238 Con gain from Lab 2512 (4.69%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

176

 Leicestershire North West [Robert Goodwill] Con 23916 Lab 21529 LDm 4492 Ref 2088 Con gain from Lab 2387 (4.59%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

177

 Edinburgh South [Elizabeth Smith] Con 16266 Lab 14268 LDm 7911 SNP 5791 Ref 504 NLP 98 Con gain from Lab 1998 (4.46%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

178

 Brentford & Isleworth [Niranjan Deva] Con 26245 Lab 23829 LDm 4613 Grn 687 UKInd 614 NLP 147 Con gain from Lab 2416 (4.30%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

179

 Bolton North East [Robert Wilson] Con 22333 Lab 20240 LDm 4862 Ref 1096 SocLab 676 Con gain from Lab 2093 (4.25%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

180

 Edinburgh Central [Mike Scott-Hayward] Con 15465 Lab 13715 SNP 6750 LDm 5605 Grn 607 Ref 495 IndDem 98 Con gain from Lab 1750 (4.10%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

181

 Southampton Test [Sir James Hill] Con 22578 Lab 20530 LDm 7171 Ref 1397 LCP 388 UKInd 219 Glow 81 NLP 77 Con gain from Lab 2048 (3.91%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

182

 Walsall South [Leslie Leek] Con 20198 Lab 18538 LDm 2698 Ref 1662 NLP 144 Con gain from Lab 1660 (3.84%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

183

 Devon North Con 29868 LDm 27824 Lab -2858 Con gain from LDm 2044 (3.73%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

184

 Cornwall South East Con 29178 LDm 27044 UKInd 1428 MK 573 Lib 268 NLP 197 Lab -1256 Con gain from LDm 2134 (3.72%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

185

 Southampton Itchen [Peter Fleet] Con 23367 Lab 21420 LDm 6289 Ref 1660 SocLab 628 UKInd 172 SP 113 NLP 110 ProLife 99 Con gain from Lab 1947 (3.62%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

186

 Inverness East Nairn & Lochaber [Mary Scanlon] Con 15520 SNP 13848 Lab 9022 LDm 8364 Ref 436 Grn 354 CU 224 Con gain from Lab 1672 (3.50%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

187

 Cunninghame North [Margaret Mitchell] Con 15816 Lab 14517 SNP 7584 LDm 2271 SocLab 501 Ref 440 Con gain from Lab 1299 (3.16%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

188

 Brecon & Radnorshire [Jonathan Evans] Con 18851 LDm 17516 Lab 4992 Ref 900 PC 622 Con gain from LDm 1335 (3.11%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

189

 Brighton Pavilion [Sir Derek Spencer] Con 20898 Lab 19395 LDm 4644 Ref 1304 Grn 1249 IndC 1098 UKInd 179 SGP 125 RDrm 59 Con gain from Lab 1503 (3.07%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

190

 Southport [Matthew Banks] Con 25775 LDm 24346 Ref 1368 Lib 386 NLP 93 NatDem 92 Lab -1464 Con gain from LDm 1429 (2.82%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

191

 Dudley South [Mark Simpson] Con 21282 Lab 19939 LDm 5214 Ref 1467 Con gain from Lab 1343 (2.80%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

192

 Warwickshire North [Stephen Hammond] Con 25037 Lab 23534 LDm 4040 Ref 917 UKInd 533 Bert 178 Con gain from Lab 1503 (2.77%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

193

 Slough [Peta Buscombe] Con 21117 Lab 19870 LDm 3509 Lib 1835 Ref 1124 Slough 277 Con gain from Lab 1247 (2.61%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

194

 Cambridge [David Platt] Con 20999 Lab 19736 LDm 8287 Ref 1262 Grn 654 ProLife 191 WRP 107 NLP 103 Con gain from Lab 1263 (2.46%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

195

 Nottingham South [Brian Kirsch] Con 20739 Lab 19547 LDm 6265 Ref 1523 NatDem 446 Con gain from Lab 1192 (2.46%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

196

 Cannock Chase [John Backhouse] Con 22081 Lab 20851 LDm 4537 Ref 1663 NLab 1615 SocLab 1120 Lny 499 Con gain from Lab 1230 (2.35%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

197

 Hereford [Sir Colin Shepherd] Con 26432 LDm 25198 Ref 2209 Lab -1286 Con gain from LDm 1234 (2.35%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

198

 Weaver Vale [James Byrne] Con 21041 Lab 19999 LDm 5949 Ref 1312 Con gain from Lab 1042 (2.16%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

199

 Birmingham Selly Oak [Graham Greene] Con 21615 Lab 20539 LDm 6121 Ref 1520 ProLife 417 Lny 253 NLP 85 Con gain from Lab 1076 (2.13%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

200

 Renfrewshire West [Charles Cormack] Con 13354 Lab 12558 SNP 10546 LDm 3045 Ref 283 Con gain from Lab 796 (2.00%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

201

 Stretford & Urmston [John Gregory] Con 22144 Lab 21176 LDm 3978 Ref 1397 Con gain from Lab 968 (1.99%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

202

 Norwich South [Bashir Kanbhai] Con 19648 Lab 18647 LDm 9457 Ref 1464 LCP 765 Grn 736 NLP 84 Con gain from Lab 1001 (1.97%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

203

 Harrogate & Knaresborough [Norman Lamont] Con 25469 LDm 24558 LC 614 Lab -2988 Con gain from LDm 911 (1.91%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

204

 Cheltenham [John Todman] Con 25777 LDm 24877 Ref 1065 Lny 375 UKInd 302 ProLife 245 NLP 107 Lab -2445 Con gain from LDm 900 (1.79%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

205

 St Ives [William Rogers] Con 24881 LDm 23966 Ref 3714 UKInd 567 Lib 425 RAlt 178 Lab 99 BHMBCM 71 Con gain from LDm 915 (1.70%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

206

 Galloway & Upper Nithsdale [Ian Lang] Con 19127 SNP 18449 LDm 2700 Ind 566 Lab 559 Ref 428 UKInd 189 Con gain from SNP 678 (1.61%) Swing SNP to Con 7.50%

207

 Illford South [Sir Neil Thorne] Con 22575 Lab 21771 LDm 3152 Ref 1073 SocLab 868 BNP 580 Con gain from Lab 804 (1.61%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

208

 Carlisle [Richard Lawrence] Con 19182 Lab 18490 LDm 4576 Ref 1233 NLP 126 Con gain from Lab 692 (1.59%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

209

 Mitcham & Morden [Dame Angela Rumbold] Con 21434 Lab 20793 LDm 3632 Ref 810 BNP 521 Grn 415 Ind 144 UKInd 117 ACC 80 Con gain from Lab 641 (1.34%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

210

 Bradford South [Anne Hawksworth] Con 19380 Lab 18800 LDm 5093 Ref 1785 Con gain from Lab 580 (1.29%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

211

 Copeland [Andrew Cumpsty] Con 18282 Lab 17824 LDm 3814 Ref 1036 ProLife 389 Con gain from Lab 458 (1.11%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

212

 Wakefield [Jonathon Peacock] Con 21945 Lab 21405 LDm 5656 Ref 1480 Con gain from Lab 540 (1.07%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

213

 Moray [Andrew Findlay] Con 16927 SNP 16529 LDm 3548 Lab 1922 Ref 840 Con gain from SNP 398 (1.00%) Swing SNP to Con 7.50%

214

 Edinburgh North & Leith [Ewan Stewart] Con 13453 Lab 13068 SNP 8231 LDm 5335 Ref 441 SSA 320 NLP 97 Con gain from Lab 385 (0.94%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

215

 Walsall North [Mike Bird] Con 18424 Lab 18022 LDm 4050 Ref 1430 Ind 911 NF 465 Con gain from Lab 402 (0.93%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

216

 Delyn [Karen Lumley] Con 16568 Lab 16339 LDm 4160 PC 1558 Ref 1117 Con gain from Lab 229 (0.58%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

217

 Birmingham Northfield [Alan Blumenthal] Con 16700 Lab 16489 LDm 4078 Ref 1243 BNP 337 Con gain from Lab 211 (0.54%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

218

 Sherwood [Roland Spencer] Con 24738 Lab 24592 LDm 4889 Ref 1882 BNP 432 Con gain from Lab 146 (0.26%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

219

 Gower [Martin Caton] Lab 16813 Con 16806 LDm 5624 PC 2226 Ref 1745 FP 122 Lab hold 7 (0.02%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

220

 Edmonton [Andy Love] Lab 20304 Con 20282 LDm 2847 Ref 708 BNP 437 UKInd 260 Lab hold 22 (0.05%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

221

 Barrow & Furness [John Hutton] Lab 20396 Con 20367 LDm 4264 PLP 1995 Ref 1208 Lab hold 29 (0.06%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

222

 Newbury [David Rendel] LDm 29887 Con 29841 Ref 992 Grn 644 UKInd 302 SocLab 174 Lab -5364 LDm hold 46 (0.08%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

223

 Birmingham Yardley [John Hemming] LDm 12463 Con 12404 Lab 12110 Ref 646 UKInd 164 LDm gain from Lab 59 (0.16%) Swing Lab to LDm 7.50%

224

 Hampstead & Highgate [Glenda Jackson] Lab 18671 Con 18595 LDm 5481 Ref 667 NLP 147 RDrm 141 UKInd 123 Hum 105 Rizz 101 Lab hold 76 (0.17%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

225

 Edinburgh West [Donald Gorrie] LDm 20578 Con 20469 SNP 4210 Lab 1804 Ref 277 Lib 263 AS 30 LDm hold 109 (0.23%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

226

 Aberdeen Central [Frank Doran] Lab 12403 Con 12286 SNP 5767 LDm 4714 Ref 446 Lab hold 117 (0.33%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

227

 Telford [Bruce Grocott] Lab 15890 Con 15732 LDm 4371 Ref 1119 Lab hold 158 (0.43%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

228

 Blackburn [Jack Straw] Lab 19017 Con 18814 LDm 4990 Ref 1892 NatDem 671 SocLab 637 Grn 608 KBF 506 CSSPP 362 Lab hold 203 (0.43%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

229

 Bradford North [Terry Rooney] Lab 17209 Con 17007 LDm 6083 Ref 1227 Lny 369 Lab hold 202 (0.48%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

230

 Ellesmere Port & Neston [Andrew Miller] Lab 23426 Con 23158 LDm 4673 Ref 1305 Lab hold 268 (0.51%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

231

 Coventry North West [Geoffrey Robinson] Lab 22753 Con 22448 LDm 5690 Ref 1269 SocLab 940 Lib 687 ProLife 359 RDrm 176 Lab hold 305 (0.56%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

232

 Oldham East & Saddleworth [Chris Davies] LDm 19157 Con 18781 Lab 14431 Ref 1116 SocLab 470 NLP 146 LDm gain from Lab 376 (0.69%) Swing Lab to LDm 7.50%

233

 Regent's Park & Kensington North [Ms Karen Buck] Lab 21266 Con 20811 LDm 4041 Ref 867 NLP 192 RDrm 167 Lab hold 455 (0.96%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

234

 Derby South [Margaret Beckett] Lab 21382 Con 20820 LDm 7438 Ref 1862 NatDem 317 Lab hold 562 (1.08%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

235

 Crewe & Nantwich [Gwyneth Dunwoody] Lab 21870 Con 21252 LDm 5940 Ref 1543 Lab hold 618 (1.22%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

236

 Lancashire West [Colin Pickthall] Lab 24813 Con 24112 LDm 3938 Ref 1025 NLP 449 BHR 392 Lab hold 701 (1.28%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

237

 Birmingham Erdington [Robin Corbett] Lab 17703 Con 17168 LDm 4112 Ref 1424 Lab hold 535 (1.32%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

238

 Wolverhampton North East [Ken Purchase] Lab 18324 Con 17757 LDm 2214 Lib 1560 Ref 1192 NatDem 356 Lab hold 567 (1.37%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

239

 Leicester West [Patricia Hewitt] Lab 16443 Con 15853 LDm 5795 Ref 970 Grn 586 SocLab 452 SP 327 BNP 302 NatDem 186 Lab hold 590 (1.44%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

240

 Gordon [Malcolm Bruce] LDm 17999 Con 17338 SNP 8435 Ref 459 Lab -1986 LDm hold 661 (1.56%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

241

 Dumbarton [John McFall] Lab 14281 Con 13472 SNP 9587 LDm 3144 SSA 283 Ref 255 UKInd 242 Lab hold 809 (1.96%) Swing Lab to SNP 7.50%

242

 Morley & Rothwell [John Gunnell] Lab 19952 Con 18970 LDm 5087 Ref 1359 BNP 381 ProLife 148 Lab hold 982 (2.14%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

243

 Bath [Donald Foster] LDm 26169 Con 24948 Ref 1192 Lab 730 Grn 580 UKInd 315 NLP 55 LDm hold 1221 (2.26%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

244

 Wrexham [Dr John Marek] Lab 14987 Con 14151 LDm 4833 Ref 1195 PC 1170 NLP 86 Lab hold 836 (2.30%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

245

 Lewisham East [Bridget Prentice] Lab 16210 Con 15305 LDm 4178 Ref 910 NF 431 Lib 277 RDrm 97 Lab hold 905 (2.42%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

246

 Ealing Acton & Shepherd's Bush [Clive Soley] Lab 20843 Con 19614 LDm 5163 Ref 637 SocLab 635 UKInd 385 ProLife 265 Glow 209 CP 163 NLP 150 Lab hold 1229 (2.56%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

247

 Tooting [Tom Cox] Lab 20601 Con 19420 LDm 4320 Ref 829 Grn 527 BFAIR 161 Rights 94 RDrm 83 NLP 70 Lab hold 1181 (2.56%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

248

 Cardiff South & Penarth [Alun Michael] Lab 16287 Con 15126 LDm 3964 NLab 3942 PC 1356 Ref 1211 SP 344 NLP 170 Lab hold 1161 (2.74%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

249

 West Bromwich East [Peter Snape] Lab 17487 Con 16349 LDm 6179 Ref 1472 Lab hold 1138 (2.74%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

250

 East Lothian [John Home Robertson] Lab 16367 Con 15174 SNP 6825 LDm 4575 Ref 491 Lab hold 1193 (2.75%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%9

Notes: Table was generated by UK-Elect v4.5, based on 1997 General Election results. The names in square brackets are the candidates who previously represented the party now forecast to win. Where the Conservatives are second the additional swing required to win a seat can be obtained by halving the majority. The table filtering was set to include constituencies in Great Britain only (excluding Northern Ireland). All forecasts are based on a swing from the 1997 results, but the gain and swing details in the table are comparisons with the current situation in that constituency, which may have been the result of a by-election.

April 1992 May 1997 Feb 2000 Mar 2000 Apr 2000 May 2000 Jun 2000 Jul 2000 Aug 2000 Sep 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Dec 2000 Jan 2001 Feb 2001 Mar 2001 April 2001 May 2001 June 2001 5% Swing Con-Lab 5% Swing Lab-Con 10% Swing Lab-Con 15% Swing Lab-Con

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