Forecast for Conservative Target Seats after 15% Swing

This chart shows the forecast effect of a 15% swing from Labour to the Conservatives . The seats are sorted according to the forecast Conservative percentage majority (or shortfall). Seats gained by any party are shown in bold.

5% Con to Lab 5% Con to Lab (Lab Targets) May 1997 5% Lab to Con 5% Lab To Con (Con Targets) 10% Lab to Con 10% Lab To Con (Con Targets) 15% Lab to Con 15% Lab To Con (Con Targets)

Pos. Constituency Winner Votes Gain Info. Majority Swing Info.

1

 Wellingborough [Sir Peter Fry] Con 33110 Lab 16411 LDm 5279 UKInd 1192 NLP 297 Con gain from Lab 16699 (29.67%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

2

 Kettering [Roger Freeman] Con 33004 Lab 16107 LDm 6098 Ref 1551 NLP 197 Con gain from Lab 16897 (29.67%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

3

 Milton Keynes North East [Peter Butler] Con 27646 Lab 12516 LDm 8907 Ref 1492 Grn 576 NLP 99 Con gain from Lab 15130 (29.53%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

4

 Rugby & Kenilworth [James Pawsey] Con 35041 Lab 17176 LDm 8737 NLP 251 Con gain from Lab 17865 (29.19%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

5

 Northampton South [Michael Morris] Con 32035 Lab 15649 LDm 6316 Ref 1405 UKInd 1159 NLP 541 Con gain from Lab 16386 (28.69%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

6

 Romford [Sir Michael Neubert] Con 23855 Lab 11870 LDm 3341 Ref 1431 Lib 1100 BNP 522 Con gain from Lab 11985 (28.46%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

7

 Lancaster & Wyre [Keith Mans] Con 32707 Lab 16344 LDm 6802 Ref 1516 Grn 795 UKInd 698 Con gain from Lab 16363 (27.80%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

8

 Harwich [Iain Sproat] Con 27551 Lab 12713 LDm 7037 Ref 4923 CRP 1290 Con gain from Lab 14838 (27.73%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

9

 Castle Point [Dr Robert Spink] Con 26774 Lab 13320 LDm 4477 Ref 2700 IDCP 1301 Con gain from Lab 13454 (27.70%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

10

 Norfolk North West [Henry Bellingham] Con 32550 Lab 16611 LDm 5513 Ref 2923 Con gain from Lab 15939 (27.67%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

11

 Harrow West [Robert Hughes] Con 28446 Lab 13936 LDm 8127 Ref 1997 Con gain from Lab 14510 (27.63%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

12

 Braintree [Tony Newton] Con 30614 Lab 15393 LDm 6418 Ref 2165 Grn 712 NewWay 274 Con gain from Lab 15221 (27.39%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

13

 Enfield Southgate [Michael Portillo] Con 26116 Lab 13591 LDm 4966 Ref 1342 CDem 289 Mal 229 Con gain from Lab 12525 (26.92%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

14

 Gillingham [James Couchman] Con 25809 Lab 12585 LDm 9649 Ref 1492 UKInd 590 Lny 305 BNP 195 NLP 58 Con gain from Lab 13224 (26.09%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

15

 Sittingbourne & Sheppey [Sir Roger Moate] Con 23718 Lab 11799 LDm 8447 Ref 1082 Lny 644 UKInd 472 Con gain from Lab 11919 (25.82%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

16

 Clwyd West [Roderick Richards] Con 19108 Lab 8880 PC 5421 LDm 5151 Ref 1114 Cvty 583 Con gain from Lab 10228 (25.41%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

17

 Stroud [Roger Knapman] Con 32612 Lab 16818 LDm 9502 Grn 3415 Con gain from Lab 15794 (25.33%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

18

 Warwick & Leamington [Sir Dudley Smith] Con 32362 Lab 17734 LDm 7133 Ref 1484 Grn 764 UKInd 306 EDP 183 NLP 125 Con gain from Lab 14628 (24.34%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

19

 Shipley [Sir Marcus Fox] Con 27896 Lab 15032 LDm 7984 Ref 1960 Con gain from Lab 12864 (24.33%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

20

 Chatham & Aylesford [Richard Knox-Johnston] Con 25775 Lab 13817 LDm 7389 Ref 1538 UKInd 493 NLP 149 Con gain from Lab 11958 (24.32%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

21

 Newark [Richard Alexander] Con 28275 Lab 15701 LDm 5960 Ref 2035 Con gain from Lab 12574 (24.19%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

22

 Wirral West [David Hunt] Con 25330 Lab 14002 LDm 5945 Ref 1613 Con gain from Lab 11328 (24.16%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

23

 Shrewsbury & Atcham [Derek Conway] Con 27115 LDm 13838 Lab 12183 Ref 1346 UKInd 477 CFSS 257 PPP 128 Con gain from Lab 13277 (23.99%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

24

 Wimbledon [Sir C. Goodson-Wickes] Con 24947 Lab 13421 LDm 8014 Ref 993 Grn 474 ProLife 346 MBBBQ 112 RDrm 47 Con gain from Lab 11526 (23.84%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

925

 Reading West [Nicholas Bennett] Con 26102 Lab 14583 LDm 6153 Ref 976 BNP 320 UKInd 255 Con gain from Lab 11519 (23.80%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

26

 Eastwood [Paul Cullen] Con 25365 Lab 12931 SNP 6826 LDm 6110 Ref 497 ProLife 393 UKInd 113 Con gain from Lab 12434 (23.80%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

27

 Finchley & Golders Green [John Marshall] Con 27536 Lab 15635 LDm 5670 Ref 684 Grn 576 UKInd 205 Con gain from Lab 11901 (23.66%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

28

 Thanet South [Jonathan Aitken] Con 24647 Lab 14029 LDm 5263 UKInd 631 Grn 418 Con gain from Lab 10618 (23.60%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

29

 Hemel Hempstead [Robert Jones] Con 29802 Lab 16912 LDm 6789 Ref 1327 NLP 262 Con gain from Lab 12890 (23.40%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

30

 Illford North [Vivian Bendall] Con 27237 Lab 15809 LDm 5049 BNP 750 Con gain from Lab 11428 (23.40%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

31

 Wrekin The [Peter Bruinvels] Con 25008 Lab 14453 LDm 5807 Con gain from Lab 10555 (23.32%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

32

 Upminster [Sir Nicholas Bonsor] Con 22512 Lab 12888 LDm 3919 Ref 2000 Con gain from Lab 9624 (23.29%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

33

 Putney [David Mellor] Con 23707 Lab 13485 LDm 4739 Ref 1518 UKInd 233 Stan 101 SportsA 90 NLP 66 IndBeaut 49 RenDem 7 Con gain from Lab 10222 (23.23%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

34

 Selby [Ken Hind] Con 30449 Lab 17391 LDm 6778 Ref 1162 UKInd 536 Con gain from Lab 13058 (23.19%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

35

 Croydon Central [David Congdon] Con 29904 Lab 17063 LDm 6061 Ref 1886 Grn 595 UKInd 290 Con gain from Lab 12841 (23.01%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

36

 Bexleyheath & Crayford [David Evennett] Con 25760 Lab 14709 LDm 5391 Ref 1551 BNP 429 UKInd 383 Con gain from Lab 11051 (22.92%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

37

 Hammersmith & Fulham [Matthew Carrington] Con 29523 Lab 17159 LDm 4728 Ref 1023 NLab 695 Grn 562 UKInd 183 NLP 79 Care 74 Con gain from Lab 12364 (22.89%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

38

 Gedling [Andrew Mitchell] Con 28412 Lab 16566 LDm 5180 Ref 2006 Con gain from Lab 11846 (22.71%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

39

 Reading East [John Watts] Con 25199 Lab 13928 LDm 9307 Ref 1042 NLP 254 UKInd 252 BNP 238 Con gain from Lab 11271 (22.44%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

40

 Brighton Kemptown [Sir Andrew Bowden] Con 24864 Lab 14560 LDm 4478 Ref 1526 SocLab 316 NLP 172 Lny 123 RDrm 93 Con gain from Lab 10304 (22.34%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

41

 Leeds North West [Dr Keith Hampson] Con 23256 Lab 12288 LDm 11689 Ref 1325 SocLab 335 ProLife 251 RRP 232 Con gain from Lab 10968 (22.21%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

42

 Hove [Robert Guy] Con 24717 Lab 14240 LDm 4645 Ref 1931 IndC 1735 Grn 644 UKInd 209 Con gain from Lab 10477 (21.77%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

43

 Dartford [Robert Dunn] Con 28749 Lab 17479 LDm 4827 BNP 428 FDP 287 CDem 228 Con gain from Lab 11270 (21.67%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

44

 Stafford [David Cameron] Con 28057 Lab 16841 LDm 5480 Ref 1146 Lny 248 Con gain from Lab 11216 (21.66%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

45

 Bradford West [Mohammed Riaz] Con 21890 Lab 12097 LDm 6737 SocLab 1551 Ref 1348 Grn 861 BNP 839 SP 245 Con gain from Lab 9793 (21.49%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

46

 Monmouth [Roger Evans] Con 26579 Lab 16051 LDm 4689 Ref 1190 PC 516 Con gain from Lab 10528 (21.47%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

47

 Colne Valley [Graham Riddick] Con 26906 Lab 14824 LDm 12755 SocLab 759 Grn 493 UKInd 478 Lny 196 Con gain from Lab 12082 (21.42%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

48

 Wansdyke [Mark Prisk] Con 27526 Lab 15909 LDm 9205 Ref 1327 UKInd 438 Lny 225 NLP 92 Con gain from Lab 11617 (21.23%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

49

 St Albans [David Rutley] Con 24499 Lab 13718 LDm 10692 Ref 1619 RDrm 166 NLP 111 Con gain from Lab 10781 (21.22%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

50

 Ribble South [Robert Atkins] Con 29056 Lab 17572 LDm 5879 Ref 1475 Lib 1127 NLP 122 Con gain from Lab 11484 (20.79%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

51

 Scarborough & Whitby [John Sykes] Con 27815 Lab 16643 LDm 7672 Ref 2191 Con gain from Lab 11172 (20.57%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

52

 Portsmouth North [Peter Griffiths] Con 23806 Lab 14549 LDm 4788 Ref 1757 UKInd 298 WsxReg 72 Con gain from Lab 9257 (20.45%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

53

 Broxtowe [Sir James Lester] Con 30488 Lab 18623 LDm 6934 Ref 2092 Con gain from Lab 11865 (20.41%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

54

 Birmingham Edgbaston [Andrew Marshall] Con 25981 Lab 16285 LDm 4691 Ref 1065 BDP 443 Con gain from Lab 9696 (20.01%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

55

 Bristol West [William Waldegrave] Con 29971 LDm 17551 Lab 12672 Ref 1304 Grn 852 SocLab 244 NLP 47 Con gain from Lab 12420 (19.83%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

56

 Wolverhampton South West [Nicholas Budgen] Con 26877 Lab 17319 LDm 4012 Lib 713 Con gain from Lab 9558 (19.54%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

57

 Watford [Robert Gordon] Con 27512 Lab 16734 LDm 9272 Ref 1484 NLP 234 Con gain from Lab 10778 (19.51%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

58

 Brent North [Sir Rhodes Boyson] Con 21050 Lab 13617 LDm 3104 NLP 204 RDrm 199 Con gain from Lab 7433 (19.47%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

59

 Welwyn Hatfield [David Evans] Con 27286 Lab 16991 LDm 7161 RA 1263 ProLife 267 Con gain from Lab 10295 (19.44%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

60

 Edinburgh Pentlands [Malcolm Rifkind] Con 21674 Lab 12814 SNP 5952 LDm 4575 Ref 422 Grn 224 UKInd 81 Con gain from Lab 8860 (19.37%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

61

 Gravesham [Jacques Arnold] Con 28668 Lab 18473 LDm 4128 Ref 1441 Ind 414 NLP 129 Con gain from Lab 10195 (19.14%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

62

 Loughborough [Kenneth Andrew] Con 27590 Lab 17594 LDm 6190 Ref 991 Con gain from Lab 9996 (19.09%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

63

 Swindon South [Simon Coombs] Con 25972 Lab 16269 LDm 7371 Ref 1273 Route66 181 NLP 96 Con gain from Lab 9703 (18.97%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

64

 Calder Valley [Sir Donald Thompson] Con 28264 Lab 17581 LDm 8322 Ref 1380 Grn 488 BNP 431 Con gain from Lab 10683 (18.92%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

65

 Battersea [John Bowis] Con 25796 Lab 16938 LDm 3482 Ref 804 UKInd 250 RDrm 127 Con gain from Lab 8858 (18.69%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

66

 Stourbridge [Warren Hawksley] Con 25262 Lab 15997 LDm 7123 Ref 1319 Con gain from Lab 9265 (18.64%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

67

 Falmouth & Cambourne [Sebastian Coe] Con 23507 LDm 13512 Lab 10107 Ref 3534 IndL 1691 Lib 527 UKInd 355 MK 238 Lny 161 Con gain from Lab 9995 (18.64%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

68

 Burton [Sir Ivan Lawrence] Con 29656 Lab 19634 LDm 4617 NatDem 604 Con gain from Lab 10022 (18.39%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

69

 Pudsey [Peter Bone] Con 27072 Lab 17461 LDm 7375 Ref 823 Con gain from Lab 9611 (18.23%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

70

 Medway [Dame Peggy Fenner] Con 23215 Lab 15147 LDm 4555 Ref 1420 UKInd 405 Con gain from Lab 8068 (18.03%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

71

 Morecambe & Lunesdale [Sir Mark Lennox-Boyd] Con 25483 Lab 16674 LDm 5614 Ref 1313 NLP 165 Con gain from Lab 8809 (17.89%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

72

 Hendon [Sir John Gorst] Con 26033 Lab 17178 LDm 5427 Ref 978 UKInd 267 WRP 153 Con gain from Lab 8855 (17.70%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

73

 Wyre Forest [Anthony Coombs] Con 28155 Lab 18585 LDm 4377 Ref 1956 Lib 1670 UKInd 312 Con gain from Lab 9570 (17.38%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

74

 Forest of Dean [Paul Marland] Con 25387 Lab 16676 LDm 6165 Ref 1624 IndRFD 218 21stCIF 80 IndF 34 Con gain from Lab 8711 (17.36%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

75

 Hornchurch [Robin Squire] Con 22977 Lab 15475 LDm 3446 Ref 1595 TW 259 ProLife 189 Con gain from Lab 7502 (17.07%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

76

 Batley & Spen [Elizabeth Peacock] Con 24116 Lab 16169 LDm 4133 Ref 1691 BNP 472 Grn 384 Con gain from Lab 7947 (16.92%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

77

 Brigg & Goole [Donald Stewart] Con 24124 Lab 16473 LDm 4692 Ref 1513 Con gain from Lab 7651 (16.35%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

78

 Redditch [Anthea McIntyre] Con 22867 Lab 15568 LDm 4935 Ref 1151 NLP 227 Con gain from Lab 7299 (16.31%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

79

 Hastings & Rye [Jacqui Lait] Con 21667 LDm 13717 Lab 9507 Ref 2511 Lib 1046 UKInd 472 Lny 149 Con gain from Lab 7950 (16.20%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

80

 Keighley [Gary Waller] Con 26629 Lab 18317 LDm 5064 Ref 1470 Con gain from Lab 8312 (16.15%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

81

 Gloucester [Douglas French] Con 29371 Lab 20256 LDm 6069 Ref 1482 UKInd 455 NLP 281 Con gain from Lab 9115 (15.74%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

82

 Bury North [Alistair Burt] Con 28914 Lab 20266 LDm 4536 Ref 1337 Con gain from Lab 8648 (15.71%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

83

 Enfield North [Mark Field] Con 24476 Lab 16998 LDm 4264 Ref 857 BNP 590 UKInd 484 Con gain from Lab 7478 (15.69%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

84

 Bolton West [Thomas Sackville] Con 24644 Lab 16968 LDm 5309 SocLab 1374 Ref 865 Con gain from Lab 7676 (15.61%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

85

 Worcester [Nicholas Bourne] Con 26165 Lab 18106 LDm 6462 UKInd 886 Con gain from Lab 8059 (15.61%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

86

 Wirral South [Les Byrom] Con 24709 Lab 17285 LDm 5018 Ref 768 ProLife 264 NLP 51 Con gain from Lab 7424 (15.44%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

87

 Ayr [Phil Gallie] Con 21849 Lab 14966 SNP 5625 LDm 2116 Ref 200 Con gain from Lab 6883 (15.38%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

88

 Stirling [Michael Forsyth] Con 20414 Lab 13939 SNP 5752 LDm 2675 UKInd 154 Value 24 Con gain from Lab 6475 (15.07%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

89

 Winchester [Gerry Malone] Con 35406 LDm 26100 Ref 1598 TCLD 640 UKInd 476 IndAFE 307 Lny 307 Lab -2780 Con gain from LDm 9306 (15.00%) Swing LDm to Con 27.32%

90

 Torbay [Rupert Allason] Con 29080 LDm 21094 UKInd 1962 Lib 1161 RDrm 100 Lab -75 Con gain from LDm 7986 (14.98%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

91

 Tamworth [Lady Ann Lightbown] Con 25790 Lab 18330 LDm 4025 Ref 1163 UKInd 369 Lib 177 Con gain from Lab 7460 (14.96%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

92

 Kingston & Surbiton [Richard Tracey] Con 28704 LDm 20411 Lab 4462 Ref 1470 UKInd 418 NLP 100 RDrm 100 Con gain from LDm 8293 (14.90%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

93

 Peterborough [Jacqueline Foster] Con 24306 Lab 17101 LDm 5170 Ref 924 NLP 334 UKInd 317 ProLife 275 Con gain from Lab 7205 (14.88%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

94

 Erewash [Angela Knight] Con 31111 Lab 22146 LDm 5181 Ref 1404 SocLab 496 Con gain from Lab 8965 (14.86%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

95

 Somerton & Frome [Mark Robinson] Con 31164 LDm 22684 Ref 2449 Lab 775 UKInd 331 Con gain from LDm 8480 (14.77%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

96

 Leeds North East [Timothy Kirkhope] Con 22235 Lab 15542 LDm 6318 Ref 946 SocLab 468 Con gain from Lab 6693 (14.71%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

97

 High Peak [Charles Hendry] Con 28833 Lab 20480 LDm 6420 Ref 1420 Con gain from Lab 8353 (14.62%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

98

 Swindon North [Guy Opperman] Con 23581 Lab 16789 LDm 6237 Ref 1533 NLP 130 Con gain from Lab 6792 (14.07%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

99

 Elmet [Spencer Batiste] Con 27683 Lab 20234 LDm 4691 Ref 1487 Con gain from Lab 7449 (13.77%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

100

 Aberdeen South [Raymond Robertson] Con 18230 LDm 12176 Lab 8932 SNP 4299 Ref 425 Con gain from Lab 6054 (13.74%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

101

 Crosby [Sir Malcolm Thornton] Con 21988 Lab 15928 LDm 5080 Ref 813 Lib 233 NLP 99 Con gain from Lab 6060 (13.73%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

102

 Eastleigh [Stephen Reid] Con 27023 LDm 19453 Lab 6559 Ref 2013 UKInd 446 Con gain from LDm 7570 (13.64%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

103

 Ealing North [Harry Greenway] Con 29102 Lab 21546 LDm 3887 UKInd 689 Grn 502 Con gain from Lab 7556 (13.56%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

104

 Blackpool North & Fleetwood [Harold Elletson] Con 27167 Lab 19989 LDm 4600 Ref 1704 BNP 288 Con gain from Lab 7178 (13.35%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

105

 Cardiff North [Gwilym Jones] Con 23607 Lab 17187 LDm 5294 PC 1201 Ref 1199 Con gain from Lab 6420 (13.24%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

106

 Bedford [Robert Blackman] Con 23815 Lab 17433 LDm 6044 Ref 1503 NLP 149 Con gain from Lab 6382 (13.04%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

107

 Harrow East [Hugh Dykes] Con 28736 Lab 21380 LDm 4697 Ref 1537 UKInd 464 NLP 171 Con gain from Lab 7356 (12.91%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

108

 Chorley [Den Dover] Con 29392 Lab 21952 LDm 4900 Ref 1319 NLP 143 Con gain from Lab 7440 (12.89%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

109

 Norwich North [Dr Robert Kinghorn] Con 26134 Lab 19088 LDm 6951 Ref 1777 LCP 512 SocLab 495 NLP 100 Con gain from Lab 7046 (12.80%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

110

 Weston-Super-Mare [Margaret Daly] Con 28139 LDm 21407 Ref 2280 Lab 1551 Con gain from LDm 6732 (12.61%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

111

 Lewes [Tim Rathbone] Con 27325 LDm 21250 Ref 2481 UKInd 256 Lab -2143 Con gain from LDm 6075 (12.36%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

112

 Great Yarmouth [Michael Carttiss] Con 24748 Lab 18752 LDm 5381 Con gain from Lab 5996 (12.27%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

113

 Colchester [Stephan Shakespeare] Con 24105 LDm 17886 Lab 8091 Ref 1776 NLP 148 Con gain from LDm 6219 (11.96%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

114

 Cleethorpes [Michael Brown] Con 24452 Lab 18488 LDm 5746 Ref 1787 Con gain from Lab 5964 (11.82%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

115

 Devon West & Torridge [Iain Liddell-Grainger] Con 31658 LDm 24744 Ref 1946 UKInd 1841 Lib 508 Lab -1552 Con gain from LDm 6914 (11.69%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

116

 Northavon [Sir John Cope] Con 33742 LDm 26500 Ref 1900 Lab 388 Con gain from LDm 7242 (11.58%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

117

 Chester City of [Gyles Brandreth] Con 27691 Lab 21368 LDm 5353 Ref 1487 Lny 204 WCCC 154 Con gain from Lab 6323 (11.24%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

118

 Derby North [Greg Knight] Con 27650 Lab 21423 LDm 5059 Ref 1816 ProLife 195 Con gain from Lab 6227 (11.09%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

119

 Exeter [Dr Adrian Rogers] Con 26972 Lab 20119 LDm 11148 Lib 2062 Grn 643 UKInd 638 UKPP 282 Con gain from Lab 6853 (11.08%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

120

 Taunton [David Nicholson] Con 32772 LDm 26064 Ref 2760 BNP 318 Lab -903 Con gain from LDm 6708 (10.99%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

121

 Dewsbury [Dr Paul McCormick] Con 19424 Lab 14825 LDm 4422 BNP 2232 Ref 1019 IndL 770 Grn 383 Con gain from Lab 4599 (10.68%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

122

 Northampton North [Tony Marlow] Con 25001 Lab 19493 LDm 6579 UKInd 464 NLP 161 Con gain from Lab 5508 (10.65%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

123

 Sutton & Cheam [Lady Olga Maitland] Con 24885 LDm 19919 Ref 1784 Lab 217 UKInd 191 NLP 96 Con gain from LDm 4966 (10.55%) Swing LDm to Con 7.50%

124

 Dumfries [Struan Stevenson] Con 21314 Lab 16099 SNP 5977 LDm 5487 Ref 533 NLP 117 Con gain from Lab 5215 (10.53%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

125

 Vale of Glamorgan [Walter Sweeney] Con 26609 Lab 20967 LDm 4945 PC 1393 Con gain from Lab 5642 (10.46%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

126

 Warrington South [Christopher Grayling] Con 26176 Lab 20459 LDm 7199 Ref 1082 NLP 166 Con gain from Lab 5717 (10.38%) Swing Lab to Con 15.00%

127

 Staffordshire Moorlands