Forecast for Conservative Target Seats after 10% Swing

This chart shows the forecast effect of a 10% swing from Labour to the Conservatives . The seats are sorted according to the forecast Conservative percentage majority (or shortfall). Seats gained are shown in bold.

5% Con to Lab 5% Con to Lab (Lab Targets) May 1997 5% Lab to Con 5% Lab To Con (Con Targets) 10% Lab to Con 10% Lab To Con (Con Targets) 15% Lab to Con 15% Lab To Con (Con Targets)

Pos. Constituency Winner Votes Gain Info. Majority Swing Info.

1

 Kettering [Roger Freeman] Con 30156 Lab 18955 LDm 6098 Ref 1551 NLP 197 Con gain from Lab 11201 (19.67%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

2

 Wellingborough [Sir Peter Fry] Con 30295 Lab 19226 LDm 5279 UKInd 1192 NLP 297 Con gain from Lab 11069 (19.66%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

3

 Milton Keynes North East [Peter Butler] Con 25084 Lab 15078 LDm 8907 Ref 1492 Grn 576 NLP 99 Con gain from Lab 10006 (19.53%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

4

 Rugby & Kenilworth [James Pawsey] Con 31981 Lab 20236 LDm 8737 NLP 251 Con gain from Lab 11745 (19.19%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

5

 Northampton South [Michael Morris] Con 29180 Lab 18504 LDm 6316 Ref 1405 UKInd 1159 NLP 541 Con gain from Lab 10676 (18.70%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

6

 Romford [Sir Michael Neubert] Con 21749 Lab 13976 LDm 3341 Ref 1431 Lib 1100 BNP 522 Con gain from Lab 7773 (18.45%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

7

 Lancaster & Wyre [Keith Mans] Con 29764 Lab 19287 LDm 6802 Ref 1516 Grn 795 UKInd 698 Con gain from Lab 10477 (17.80%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

8

 Harwich [Iain Sproat] Con 24875 Lab 15389 LDm 7037 Ref 4923 CRP 1290 Con gain from Lab 9486 (17.73%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

9

 Castle Point [Dr Robert Spink] Con 24346 Lab 15748 LDm 4477 Ref 2700 IDCP 1301 Con gain from Lab 8598 (17.70%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

10

 Norfolk North West [Henry Bellingham] Con 29670 Lab 19491 LDm 5513 Ref 2923 Con gain from Lab 10179 (17.67%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

11

 Harrow West [Robert Hughes] Con 25821 Lab 16561 LDm 8127 Ref 1997 Con gain from Lab 9260 (17.64%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

12

 Braintree [Tony Newton] Con 27835 Lab 18172 LDm 6418 Ref 2165 Grn 712 NewWay 274 Con gain from Lab 9663 (17.39%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

13

 Shrewsbury & Atcham [Derek Conway] Con 24348 Lab 14950 LDm 13838 Ref 1346 UKInd 477 CFSS 257 PPP 128 Con gain from Lab 9398 (16.98%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

14

 Enfield Southgate [Michael Portillo] Con 23790 Lab 15917 LDm 4966 Ref 1342 CDem 289 Mal 229 Con gain from Lab 7873 (16.92%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

15

 Gillingham [James Couchman] Con 23275 Lab 15119 LDm 9649 Ref 1492 UKInd 590 Lny 305 BNP 195 NLP 58 Con gain from Lab 8156 (16.09%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

16

 Sittingbourne & Sheppey [Sir Roger Moate] Con 21410 Lab 14107 LDm 8447 Ref 1082 Lny 644 UKInd 472 Con gain from Lab 7303 (15.82%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

17

 Clwyd West [Roderick Richards] Con 17095 Lab 10893 PC 5421 LDm 5151 Ref 1114 Cvty 583 Con gain from Lab 6202 (15.41%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

18

 Stroud [Roger Knapman] Con 29494 Lab 19936 LDm 9502 Grn 3415 Con gain from Lab 9558 (15.33%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

19

 Bristol West [William Waldegrave] Con 26839 LDm 17551 Lab 15804 Ref 1304 Grn 852 SocLab 244 NLP 47 Con gain from Lab 9288 (14.83%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

20

 Warwick & Leamington [Sir Dudley Smith] Con 29358 Lab 20738 LDm 7133 Ref 1484 Grn 764 UKInd 306 EDP 183 NLP 125 Con gain from Lab 8620 (14.34%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

21

 Shipley [Sir Marcus Fox] Con 25253 Lab 17675 LDm 7984 Ref 1960 Con gain from Lab 7578 (14.33%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

22

 Chatham & Aylesford [Richard Knox-Johnston] Con 23317 Lab 16275 LDm 7389 Ref 1538 UKInd 493 NLP 149 Con gain from Lab 7042 (14.32%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

23

 Newark [Richard Alexander] Con 25677 Lab 18299 LDm 5960 Ref 2035 Con gain from Lab 7378 (14.20%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

24

 Wirral West [David Hunt] Con 22986 Lab 16346 LDm 5945 Ref 1613 Con gain from Lab 6640 (14.16%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

25

 Wimbledon [Sir C. Goodson-Wickes] Con 22529 Lab 15839 LDm 8014 Ref 993 Grn 474 ProLife 346 MBBBQ 112 RDrm 47 Con gain from Lab 6690 (13.84%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

26

 Eastwood [Paul Cullen] Con 22753 Lab 15543 SNP 6826 LDm 6110 Ref 497 ProLife 393 UKInd 113 Con gain from Lab 7210 (13.80%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

27

 Reading West [Nicholas Bennett] Con 23682 Lab 17003 LDm 6153 Ref 976 BNP 320 UKInd 255 Con gain from Lab 6679 (13.80%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

28

 Finchley & Golders Green [John Marshall] Con 25021 Lab 18150 LDm 5670 Ref 684 Grn 576 UKInd 205 Con gain from Lab 6871 (13.66%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

29

 Falmouth & Cambourne [Sebastian Coe] Con 20826 LDm 13512 Lab 12788 Ref 3534 IndL 1691 Lib 527 UKInd 355 MK 238 Lny 161 Con gain from Lab 7314 (13.64%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

30

 Thanet South [Jonathan Aitken] Con 22397 Lab 16279 LDm 5263 UKInd 631 Grn 418 Con gain from Lab 6118 (13.60%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

31

 Hemel Hempstead [Robert Jones] Con 27048 Lab 19666 LDm 6789 Ref 1327 NLP 262 Con gain from Lab 7382 (13.40%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

32

 Illford North [Vivian Bendall] Con 24795 Lab 18251 LDm 5049 BNP 750 Con gain from Lab 6544 (13.40%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

33

 Wrekin The [Peter Bruinvels] Con 22744 Lab 16717 LDm 5807 Con gain from Lab 6027 (13.31%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

34

 Upminster [Sir Nicholas Bonsor] Con 20446 Lab 14954 LDm 3919 Ref 2000 Con gain from Lab 5492 (13.29%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

35

 Putney [David Mellor] Con 21507 Lab 15685 LDm 4739 Ref 1518 UKInd 233 Stan 101 SportsA 90 NLP 66 IndBeaut 49 RenDem 7 Con gain from Lab 5822 (13.23%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

36

 Selby [Ken Hind] Con 27633 Lab 20207 LDm 6778 Ref 1162 UKInd 536 Con gain from Lab 7426 (13.19%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

37

 Croydon Central [David Congdon] Con 27114 Lab 19853 LDm 6061 Ref 1886 Grn 595 UKInd 290 Con gain from Lab 7261 (13.01%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

38

 Bexleyheath & Crayford [David Evennett] Con 23349 Lab 17120 LDm 5391 Ref 1551 BNP 429 UKInd 383 Con gain from Lab 6229 (12.92%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

39

 Hammersmith & Fulham [Matthew Carrington] Con 26822 Lab 19860 LDm 4728 Ref 1023 NLab 695 Grn 562 UKInd 183 NLP 79 Care 74 Con gain from Lab 6962 (12.89%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

40

 Gedling [Andrew Mitchell] Con 25804 Lab 19174 LDm 5180 Ref 2006 Con gain from Lab 6630 (12.71%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

41

 Reading East [John Watts] Con 22688 Lab 16439 LDm 9307 Ref 1042 NLP 254 UKInd 252 BNP 238 Con gain from Lab 6249 (12.44%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

42

 Brighton Kemptown [Sir Andrew Bowden] Con 22558 Lab 16866 LDm 4478 Ref 1526 SocLab 316 NLP 172 Lny 123 RDrm 93 Con gain from Lab 5692 (12.34%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

43

 Leeds North West [Dr Keith Hampson] Con 20787 Lab 14757 LDm 11689 Ref 1325 SocLab 335 ProLife 251 RRP 232 Con gain from Lab 6030 (12.21%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

44

 Hove [Robert Guy] Con 22311 Lab 16646 LDm 4645 Ref 1931 IndC 1735 Grn 644 UKInd 209 Con gain from Lab 5665 (11.77%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

45

 Dartford [Robert Dunn] Con 26149 Lab 20079 LDm 4827 BNP 428 FDP 287 CDem 228 Con gain from Lab 6070 (11.67%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

46

 Stafford [David Cameron] Con 25469 Lab 19429 LDm 5480 Ref 1146 Lny 248 Con gain from Lab 6040 (11.67%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

47

 Bradford West [Mohammed Riaz] Con 19611 Lab 14376 LDm 6737 SocLab 1551 Ref 1348 Grn 861 BNP 839 SP 245 Con gain from Lab 5235 (11.49%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

48

 Monmouth [Roger Evans] Con 24128 Lab 18502 LDm 4689 Ref 1190 PC 516 Con gain from Lab 5626 (11.48%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

49

 Colne Valley [Graham Riddick] Con 24086 Lab 17644 LDm 12755 SocLab 759 Grn 493 UKInd 478 Lny 196 Con gain from Lab 6442 (11.42%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

50

 Wansdyke [Mark Prisk] Con 24790 Lab 18645 LDm 9205 Ref 1327 UKInd 438 Lny 225 NLP 92 Con gain from Lab 6145 (11.23%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

51

 St Albans [David Rutley] Con 21959 Lab 16258 LDm 10692 Ref 1619 RDrm 166 NLP 111 Con gain from Lab 5701 (11.22%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

52

 Hastings & Rye [Jacqui Lait] Con 19213 LDm 13717 Lab 11961 Ref 2511 Lib 1046 UKInd 472 Lny 149 Con gain from Lab 5496 (11.20%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

53

 Ribble South [Robert Atkins] Con 26295 Lab 20333 LDm 5879 Ref 1475 Lib 1127 NLP 122 Con gain from Lab 5962 (10.79%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

54

 Scarborough & Whitby [John Sykes] Con 25099 Lab 19359 LDm 7672 Ref 2191 Con gain from Lab 5740 (10.57%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

55

 Portsmouth North [Peter Griffiths] Con 21543 Lab 16812 LDm 4788 Ref 1757 UKInd 298 WsxReg 72 Con gain from Lab 4731 (10.45%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

56

 Broxtowe [Sir James Lester] Con 27581 Lab 21530 LDm 6934 Ref 2092 Con gain from Lab 6051 (10.41%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

57

 Birmingham Edgbaston [Andrew Marshall] Con 23558 Lab 18708 LDm 4691 Ref 1065 BDP 443 Con gain from Lab 4850 (10.01%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

58

 Winchester [Gerry Malone] Con 32303 LDm 26100 Ref 1598 TCLD 640 UKInd 476 Lab 323 Lny 307 IndAFE 307 Con gain from LDm 6203 (10.00%) Swing LDm to Con 24.82%

59

 Torbay [Rupert Allason] Con 26414 LDm 21094 Lab 2591 UKInd 1962 Lib 1161 RDrm 100 Con gain from LDm 5320 (9.98%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

60

 Kingston & Surbiton [Richard Tracey] Con 25921 LDm 20411 Lab 7245 Ref 1470 UKInd 418 NLP 100 RDrm 100 Con gain from LDm 5510 (9.90%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

61

 Somerton & Frome [Mark Robinson] Con 28294 LDm 22684 Lab 3645 Ref 2449 UKInd 331 Con gain from LDm 5610 (9.77%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

62

 Wolverhampton South West [Nicholas Budgen] Con 24431 Lab 19765 LDm 4012 Lib 713 Con gain from Lab 4666 (9.54%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

63

 Watford [Robert Gordon] Con 24750 Lab 19496 LDm 9272 Ref 1484 NLP 234 Con gain from Lab 5254 (9.51%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

64

 Brent North [Sir Rhodes Boyson] Con 19141 Lab 15526 LDm 3104 NLP 204 RDrm 199 Con gain from Lab 3615 (9.47%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

65

 Welwyn Hatfield [David Evans] Con 24637 Lab 19640 LDm 7161 RA 1263 ProLife 267 Con gain from Lab 4997 (9.43%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

66

 Edinburgh Pentlands [Malcolm Rifkind] Con 19387 Lab 15101 SNP 5952 LDm 4575 Ref 422 Grn 224 UKInd 81 Con gain from Lab 4286 (9.37%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

67

 Gravesham [Jacques Arnold] Con 26006 Lab 21135 LDm 4128 Ref 1441 Ind 414 NLP 129 Con gain from Lab 4871 (9.15%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

68

 Loughborough [Kenneth Andrew] Con 24972 Lab 20212 LDm 6190 Ref 991 Con gain from Lab 4760 (9.09%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

69

 Swindon South [Simon Coombs] Con 23414 Lab 18827 LDm 7371 Ref 1273 Route66 181 NLP 96 Con gain from Lab 4587 (8.97%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

70

 Calder Valley [Sir Donald Thompson] Con 25441 Lab 20404 LDm 8322 Ref 1380 Grn 488 BNP 431 Con gain from Lab 5037 (8.92%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

71

 Aberdeen South [Raymond Robertson] Con 16027 LDm 12176 Lab 11135 SNP 4299 Ref 425 Con gain from Lab 3851 (8.74%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

72

 Battersea [John Bowis] Con 23426 Lab 19308 LDm 3482 Ref 804 UKInd 250 RDrm 127 Con gain from Lab 4118 (8.69%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

73

 Stourbridge [Warren Hawksley] Con 22777 Lab 18482 LDm 7123 Ref 1319 Con gain from Lab 4295 (8.64%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

74

 Eastleigh [Stephen Reid] Con 24248 LDm 19453 Lab 9334 Ref 2013 UKInd 446 Con gain from LDm 4795 (8.64%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

75

 Burton [Sir Ivan Lawrence] Con 26931 Lab 22359 LDm 4617 NatDem 604 Con gain from Lab 4572 (8.39%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

76

 Pudsey [Peter Bone] Con 24436 Lab 20097 LDm 7375 Ref 823 Con gain from Lab 4339 (8.23%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

77

 Medway [Dame Peggy Fenner] Con 20978 Lab 17384 LDm 4555 Ref 1420 UKInd 405 Con gain from Lab 3594 (8.03%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

78

 Morecambe & Lunesdale [Sir Mark Lennox-Boyd] Con 23020 Lab 19137 LDm 5614 Ref 1313 NLP 165 Con gain from Lab 3883 (7.88%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

79

 Hendon [Sir John Gorst] Con 23531 Lab 19680 LDm 5427 Ref 978 UKInd 267 WRP 153 Con gain from Lab 3851 (7.70%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

80

 Weston-Super-Mare [Margaret Daly] Con 25470 LDm 21407 Lab 4220 Ref 2280 Con gain from LDm 4063 (7.61%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

81

 Wyre Forest [Anthony Coombs] Con 25402 Lab 21338 LDm 4377 Ref 1956 Lib 1670 UKInd 312 Con gain from Lab 4064 (7.38%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

82

 Forest of Dean [Paul Marland] Con 22878 Lab 19185 LDm 6165 Ref 1624 IndRFD 218 21stCIF 80 IndF 34 Con gain from Lab 3693 (7.36%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

83

 Lewes [Tim Rathbone] Con 24866 LDm 21250 Ref 2481 Lab 316 UKInd 256 Con gain from LDm 3616 (7.35%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

84

 Hornchurch [Robin Squire] Con 20780 Lab 17672 LDm 3446 Ref 1595 TW 259 ProLife 189 Con gain from Lab 3108 (7.07%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

85

 Colchester [Stephan Shakespeare] Con 21505 LDm 17886 Lab 10691 Ref 1776 NLP 148 Con gain from LDm 3619 (6.96%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

86

 Batley & Spen [Elizabeth Peacock] Con 21768 Lab 18517 LDm 4133 Ref 1691 BNP 472 Grn 384 Con gain from Lab 3251 (6.92%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

87

 Devon West & Torridge [Iain Liddell-Grainger] Con 28701 LDm 24744 Ref 1946 UKInd 1841 Lab 1405 Lib 508 Con gain from LDm 3957 (6.69%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

88

 Northavon [Sir John Cope] Con 30616 LDm 26500 Lab 3514 Ref 1900 Con gain from LDm 4116 (6.58%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

89

 Brigg & Goole [Donald Stewart] Con 21784 Lab 18813 LDm 4692 Ref 1513 Con gain from Lab 2971 (6.35%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

90

 Redditch [Anthea McIntyre] Con 20629 Lab 17806 LDm 4935 Ref 1151 NLP 227 Con gain from Lab 2823 (6.31%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

91

 Keighley [Gary Waller] Con 24055 Lab 20891 LDm 5064 Ref 1470 Con gain from Lab 3164 (6.15%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

92

 Taunton [David Nicholson] Con 29722 LDm 26064 Ref 2760 Lab 2147 BNP 318 Con gain from LDm 3658 (6.00%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

93

 Gloucester [Douglas French] Con 26475 Lab 23152 LDm 6069 Ref 1482 UKInd 455 NLP 281 Con gain from Lab 3323 (5.74%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

94

 Bury North [Alistair Burt] Con 26162 Lab 23018 LDm 4536 Ref 1337 Con gain from Lab 3144 (5.71%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

95

 Enfield North [Mark Field] Con 22092 Lab 19382 LDm 4264 Ref 857 BNP 590 UKInd 484 Con gain from Lab 2710 (5.69%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

96

 Bolton West [Thomas Sackville] Con 22186 Lab 19426 LDm 5309 SocLab 1374 Ref 865 Con gain from Lab 2760 (5.61%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

97

 Worcester [Nicholas Bourne] Con 23584 Lab 20687 LDm 6462 UKInd 886 Con gain from Lab 2897 (5.61%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

98

 Sutton & Cheam [Lady Olga Maitland] Con 22531 LDm 19919 Lab 2571 Ref 1784 UKInd 191 NLP 96 Con gain from LDm 2612 (5.55%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

99

 Wirral South [Les Byrom] Con 22304 Lab 19690 LDm 5018 Ref 768 ProLife 264 NLP 51 Con gain from Lab 2614 (5.44%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

100

 Ayr [Phil Gallie] Con 19611 Lab 17204 SNP 5625 LDm 2116 Ref 200 Con gain from Lab 2407 (5.38%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

101

 Carshalton & Wallington [Nigel Forman] Con 21065 LDm 18490 Lab 6723 Ref 1289 Grn 377 BNP 261 UKInd 218 Con gain from LDm 2575 (5.32%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

102

 Stirling [Michael Forsyth] Con 18266 Lab 16087 SNP 5752 LDm 2675 UKInd 154 Value 24 Con gain from Lab 2179 (5.07%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

103

 Tamworth [Lady Ann Lightbown] Con 23297 Lab 20823 LDm 4025 Ref 1163 UKInd 369 Lib 177 Con gain from Lab 2474 (4.96%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

104

 Peterborough [Jacqueline Foster] Con 21884 Lab 19523 LDm 5170 Ref 924 NLP 334 UKInd 317 ProLife 275 Con gain from Lab 2361 (4.88%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

105

 Erewash [Angela Knight] Con 28094 Lab 25163 LDm 5181 Ref 1404 SocLab 496 Con gain from Lab 2931 (4.86%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

106

 Richmond Park [Jeremy Hanley] Con 28127 LDm 25393 Lab 1487 Ref 1467 Lny 204 NLP 102 RDrm 73 Con gain from LDm 2734 (4.81%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

107

 Leeds North East [Timothy Kirkhope] Con 19959 Lab 17818 LDm 6318 Ref 946 SocLab 468 Con gain from Lab 2141 (4.70%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

108

 High Peak [Charles Hendry] Con 25976 Lab 23337 LDm 6420 Ref 1420 Con gain from Lab 2639 (4.62%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

109

 Swindon North [Guy Opperman] Con 21168 Lab 19202 LDm 6237 Ref 1533 NLP 130 Con gain from Lab 1966 (4.07%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

110

 Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine [George Kynoch] Con 19398 LDm 17742 SNP 5639 Ref 805 Lab -395 Con gain from LDm 1656 (3.83%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

111

 Elmet [Spencer Batiste] Con 24978 Lab 22939 LDm 4691 Ref 1487 Con gain from Lab 2039 (3.77%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

112

 Crosby [Sir Malcolm Thornton] Con 19781 Lab 18135 LDm 5080 Ref 813 Lib 233 NLP 99 Con gain from Lab 1646 (3.73%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

113

 Ealing North [Harry Greenway] Con 26316 Lab 24332 LDm 3887 UKInd 689 Grn 502 Con gain from Lab 1984 (3.56%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

114

 Blackpool North & Fleetwood [Harold Elletson] Con 24479 Lab 22677 LDm 4600 Ref 1704 BNP 288 Con gain from Lab 1802 (3.35%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

115

 Cardiff North [Gwilym Jones] Con 21182 Lab 19612 LDm 5294 PC 1201 Ref 1199 Con gain from Lab 1570 (3.24%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

116

 Conwy [David Jones] Con 14241 LDm 12965 Lab 10405 PC 2844 Ref 760 AltLD 250 NLP 95 Con gain from Lab 1276 (3.07%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

117

 Bedford [Robert Blackman] Con 21368 Lab 19880 LDm 6044 Ref 1503 NLP 149 Con gain from Lab 1488 (3.04%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

118

 Perth [John Godfrey] Con 17523 SNP 16209 Lab 6581 LDm 3583 Ref 366 UKInd 289 Con gain from SNP 1314 (2.95%) Swing SNP to Con 5.00%

119

 Harrow East [Hugh Dykes] Con 25887 Lab 24229 LDm 4697 Ref 1537 UKInd 464 NLP 171 Con gain from Lab 1658 (2.91%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

120

 Chorley [Den Dover] Con 26507 Lab 24837 LDm 4900 Ref 1319 NLP 143 Con gain from Lab 1670 (2.89%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

121

 Norwich North [Dr Robert Kinghorn] Con 23381 Lab 21841 LDm 6951 Ref 1777 LCP 512 SocLab 495 NLP 100 Con gain from Lab 1540 (2.80%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

122

 Twickenham [Toby Jessel] Con 27770 LDm 26237 Lab 3251 IndECR 589 RDrm 155 NLP 142 Con gain from LDm 1533 (2.64%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

123

 Great Yarmouth [Michael Carttiss] Con 22304 Lab 21196 LDm 5381 Con gain from Lab 1108 (2.27%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

124

 Cleethorpes [Michael Brown] Con 21929 Lab 21011 LDm 5746 Ref 1787 Con gain from Lab 918 (1.82%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

125

 Portsmouth South [David Martin] Con 21263 LDm 20421 Lab 7917 Ref 1629 Lib 184 UKInd 141 NLP 140 Con gain from LDm 842 (1.63%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

126

 Isle of Wight [Andrew Turner] Con 32183 LDm 31274 Ref 4734 Lab 2331 UKInd 1072 IInd 848 Grn 544 NLP 87 RainIsl 86 Con gain from LDm 909 (1.24%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

127

 Chester City of [Gyles Brandreth] Con 24878 Lab 24181 LDm 5353 Ref 1487 Lny 204 WCCC 154 Con gain from Lab 697 (1.24%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

128

 Derby North [Greg Knight] Con 24843 Lab 24230 LDm 5059 Ref 1816 ProLife 195 Con gain from Lab 613 (1.09%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

129

 Exeter [Dr Adrian Rogers] Con 23879 Lab 23212 LDm 11148 Lib 2062 Grn 643 UKInd 638 UKPP 282 Con gain from Lab 667 (1.08%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

130

 Tweedale Ettrick & Lauderdale [Alister Jack] Con 12523 LDm 12178 Lab 6789 SNP 6671 Ref 406 Lib 387 NLP 47 Con gain from LDm 345 (0.88%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

131

 Tayside North [Bill Walker] Con 20846 SNP 20447 LDm 3716 Lab 582 Con gain from SNP 399 (0.88%) Swing SNP to Con 5.00%

132

 Dewsbury [Dr Paul McCormick] Con 17270 Lab 16979 LDm 4422 BNP 2232 Ref 1019 IndL 770 Grn 383 Con gain from Lab 291 (0.68%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

133

 Northampton North [Tony Marlow] Con 22416 Lab 22078 LDm 6579 UKInd 464 NLP 161 Con gain from Lab 338 (0.65%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

134

 Dumfries [Struan Stevenson] Con 18837 Lab 18576 SNP 5977 LDm 5487 Ref 533 NLP 117 Con gain from Lab 261 (0.53%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

135

 Vale of Glamorgan [Walter Sweeney] Con 23913 Lab 23663 LDm 4945 PC 1393 Con gain from Lab 250 (0.46%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

136

 Warrington South [Christopher Grayling] Con 23422 Lab 23213 LDm 7199 Ref 1082 NLP 166 Con gain from Lab 209 (0.38%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

137

 Staffordshire Moorlands [Dr Andrew Ashworth] Con 21748 Lab 21575 LDm 6191 Ref 1603 Con gain from Lab 173 (0.34%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

138

 Dudley North [Charles MacNamara] Con 19794 Lab 19691 LDm 3939 SocLab 2155 Ref 1201 NF 559 NatDem 469 Con gain from Lab 103 (0.22%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

139

 Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East [Michael Bates] Con 24070 Lab 23961 LDm 4004 Ref 1552 Con gain from Lab 109 (0.20%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

140

 Plymouth Sutton [Andrew Crisp] Con 19206 Lab 19116 LDm 6613 Ref 1654 UKInd 499 Plym 396 NLP 168 Con gain from Lab 90 (0.19%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

141

 Birmingham Hall Green [Stephen McCabe] Lab 18191 Con 18133 LDm 4034 Ref 1461 Lab hold 58 (0.14%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

142

 Oxford West & Abingdon [Dr Evan Harris] LDm 26268 Con 26102 Lab 6242 Ref 1258 Grn 691 UKInd 258 ProLife 238 NLP 91 LGR 48 LDm hold 166 (0.27%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

143

 Milton Keynes South West [Phyllis Starkey] Lab 22223 Con 22081 LDm 6065 NLP 389 Lab hold 142 (0.28%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

144

 Luton North [Kelvin Hopkins] Lab 21127 Con 20967 LDm 4299 UKInd 689 NLP 250 Lab hold 160 (0.34%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

145

 Preseli Pembrokeshire [Jackie Lawrence] Lab 16237 Con 15981 LDm 5527 PC 2683 Ref 1574 Grn 401 Lab hold 256 (0.60%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

146

 Bristol North West [Doug Naysmith] Lab 22051 Con 21717 LDm 7263 IndL 1718 Ref 1609 SocLab 482 BNP 265 NLP 140 Lab hold 334 (0.60%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

147

 Halesowen & Rowley Regis [Sylvia Heal] Lab 21490 Con 20905 LDm 4169 Ref 1244 NatDem 592 Grn 361 Lab hold 585 (1.20%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

148

 Amber Valley [Judy Mallaber] Lab 24466 Con 23807 LDm 4219 Ref 2283 Lab hold 659 (1.20%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

149

 Devon North [Nick Harvey] LDm 27824 Con 27126 Lab -116 LDm hold 698 (1.27%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

150

 Cornwall South East [Colin Breed] LDm 27044 Con 26307 Lab 1615 UKInd 1428 MK 573 Lib 268 NLP 197 LDm hold 737 (1.28%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

151

 Rossendale & Darwen [Mrs Janet Anderson] Lab 22350 Con 21641 LDm 5435 Ref 1108 BNP 674 Lab hold 709 (1.38%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

152

 Inverness East Nairn & Lochaber [Fergus Ewing] SNP 13848 Con 13131 Lab 11411 LDm 8364 Ref 436 Grn 354 CU 224 SNP gain from Lab 717 (1.50%) Swing Lab to SNP 5.00%

153

 Ipswich [Jamie Cann] Lab 20648 Con 19881 LDm 5881 Ref 1637 UKInd 208 NLP 107 Lab hold 767 (1.59%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

154

 Dover [Gwyn Prosser] Lab 24115 Con 23216 LDm 4302 Ref 2124 UKInd 443 Lab hold 899 (1.66%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

155

 Coventry South [Jim Cunningham] Lab 20499 Con 19570 LDm 4617 SP 3262 Ref 943 Lib 725 BNP 328 RDrm 180 Lab hold 929 (1.85%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

156

 Brecon & Radnorshire [Richard Livsey] LDm 17516 Con 16707 Lab 7136 Ref 900 PC 622 LDm hold 809 (1.89%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

157

 Corby [Phil Hope] Lab 24493 Con 23423 LDm 4045 Ref 1356 UKInd 507 NLP 133 Lab hold 1070 (1.98%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

158

 Harlow [Bill Rammell] Lab 21080 Con 20128 LDm 4523 Ref 1422 UKInd 340 BNP 319 Lab hold 952 (1.99%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

159

 Waveney [Robert Blizzard] Lab 26185 Con 25054 LDm 5054 Ind 318 Lab hold 1131 (2.00%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

160

 Tynemouth [Alan Campbell] Lab 23203 Con 22160 LDm 4509 Ref 819 UKInd 462 Lab hold 1043 (2.04%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

161

 Southport [Ronnie Fearn] LDm 24346 Con 23245 Ref 1368 Lab 1066 Lib 386 NLP 93 NatDem 92 LDm hold 1101 (2.18%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

162

 Halifax [Alice Mahon] Lab 22410 Con 21308 LDm 6059 UKInd 779 Lab hold 1102 (2.18%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

163

 Stockton South [Dari Taylor] Lab 23579 Con 22416 LDm 4721 Ref 1400 Lab hold 1163 (2.23%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

164

 Stevenage [Barbara Follett] Lab 23302 Con 21996 LDm 4588 Ref 1194 ProLife 196 NLP 110 Lab hold 1306 (2.54%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

165

 Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South [Nick Ainger] Lab 16692 Con 15599 PC 5402 LDm 3516 Ref 1432 Lab hold 1093 (2.56%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

166

 Blackpool South [Gordon Marsden] Lab 24148 Con 22800 LDm 4392 Lab hold 1348 (2.63%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

167

 Hereford [Paul Keetch] LDm 25198 Con 23805 Ref 2209 Lab 1341 LDm hold 1393 (2.65%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

168

 Vale of Clwyd [Chris Ruane] Lab 16704 Con 15575 LDm 3425 PC 2301 Ref 834 UKInd 293 Lab hold 1129 (2.89%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

169

 Pendle [Gordon Prentice] Lab 20356 Con 18938 LDm 5460 Ref 2281 Lab hold 1418 (3.01%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

170

 Harrogate & Knaresborough [Phil Willis] LDm 24558 Con 23087 LC 614 Lab -606 LDm hold 1471 (3.09%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

171

 Cheltenham [Nigel Jones] LDm 24877 Con 23262 Ref 1065 Lny 375 UKInd 302 ProLife 245 NLP 107 Lab 70 LDm hold 1615 (3.21%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

172

 Crawley [Laura Moffatt] Lab 22709 Con 21084 LDm 4141 Ref 1931 UKInd 322 JP 230 Lab hold 1625 (3.22%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

173

 Derbyshire South [Mark Todd] Lab 26713 Con 24738 LDm 5408 Ref 2491 UKInd 617 Lab hold 1975 (3.29%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

174

 St Ives [Andrew George] LDm 23966 Con 22186 Ref 3714 Lab 2794 UKInd 567 Lib 425 RAlt 178 BHMBCM 71 LDm hold 1780 (3.30%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

175

 Galloway & Upper Nithsdale [Alasdair Morgan] SNP 18449 Con 17026 LDm 2700 Lab 2660 Ind 566 Ref 428 UKInd 189 SNP hold 1423 (3.39%) Swing SNP to Con 5.00%

176

 Eltham [Clive Efford] Lab 19368 Con 17870 LDm 3701 Ref 1414 Lib 584 BNP 491 Lab hold 1498 (3.45%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

177

 Luton South [Margaret Moran] Lab 21610 Con 19927 LDm 4610 Ref 1205 UKInd 390 Grn 356 NLP 86 Lab hold 1683 (3.49%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

178

 Cardiff Central [Jon Owen Jones] Lab 14239 Con 12695 LDm 10541 SocLab 2230 PC 1504 Ref 760 Lny 204 NLP 80 Lab hold 1544 (3.65%) Swing Lab to LDm 5.00%

179

 Hyndburn [Greg Pope] Lab 22004 Con 20210 LDm 4141 Ref 1627 IAC 290 Lab hold 1794 (3.72%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

180

 Kingswood [Dr Roger Berry] Lab 26193 Con 23916 LDm 7672 Ref 1463 BNP 290 NLP 238 Scrapit 115 Lab hold 2277 (3.80%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

181

 Lincoln [Gillian Meron] Lab 20909 Con 19087 LDm 5048 Ref 1329 NLP 175 Lab hold 1822 (3.91%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

182

 Moray [Margaret Ewing] SNP 16529 Con 14939 Lab 3910 LDm 3548 Ref 840 SNP hold 1590 (4.00%) Swing SNP to Con 5.00%

183

 Bury South [Ivan Lewis] Lab 23626 Con 21257 LDm 4227 Ref 1216 Lab hold 2369 (4.71%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

184

 Basildon [Angela Smith] Lab 24338 Con 21674 LDm 4608 Ref 2462 Lab hold 2664 (5.02%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

185

 Newbury [David Rendel] LDm 29887 Con 27017 Ref 992 Grn 644 UKInd 302 SocLab 174 Lab -2540 LDm hold 2870 (5.08%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

186

 Edinburgh West [Donald Gorrie] LDm 20578 Con 18088 SNP 4210 Lab 4185 Ref 277 Lib 263 AS 30 LDm hold 2490 (5.23%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

187

 Bethnal Green & Bow [Oona King] Lab 16229 Con 13880 LDm 5361 BNP 3350 Lib 2963 RLab 1117 Grn 812 Ref 557 SocLab 413 Lab hold 2349 (5.26%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

188

 Nuneaton [Bill Olner] Lab 24729 Con 21891 LDm 4732 Ref 1533 Loc. Ind 390 UKInd 238 Lab hold 2838 (5.30%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

189

 Leicestershire North West [David Taylor] Lab 24130 Con 21315 LDm 4492 Ref 2088 Lab hold 2815 (5.41%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

190

 Edinburgh South [Nigel Griffiths] Lab 16510 Con 14024 LDm 7911 SNP 5791 Ref 504 NLP 98 Lab hold 2486 (5.54%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

191

 Oldham East & Saddleworth [Chris Davies] LDm 19157 Lab 17136 Con 16076 Ref 1116 SocLab 470 NLP 146 LDm gain from Lab 2021 (3.74%) Swing Lab to LDm 5.00%

192

 Brentford & Isleworth [Ann Keen] Lab 26636 Con 23438 LDm 4613 Grn 687 UKInd 614 NLP 147 Lab hold 3198 (5.70%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

193

 Bolton North East [David Crausby] Lab 22701 Con 19872 LDm 4862 Ref 1096 SocLab 676 Lab hold 2829 (5.75%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

194

 Edinburgh Central [Alistair Darling] Lab 15852 Con 13328 SNP 6750 LDm 5605 Grn 607 Ref 495 IndDem 98 Lab hold 2524 (5.91%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

195

 Southampton Test [Alan Whitehead] Lab 23152 Con 19956 LDm 7171 Ref 1397 LCP 388 UKInd 219 Glow 81 NLP 77 Lab hold 3196 (6.09%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

196

 Walsall South [Bruce George] Lab 20700 Con 18036 LDm 2698 Ref 1662 NLP 144 Lab hold 2664 (6.16%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

197

 Southampton Itchen [John Denham] Lab 24113 Con 20674 LDm 6289 Ref 1660 SocLab 628 UKInd 172 SP 113 NLP 110 ProLife 99 Lab hold 3439 (6.39%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

198

 Gordon [Malcolm Bruce] LDm 17999 Con 15226 SNP 8435 Ref 459 Lab 126 LDm hold 2773 (6.56%) Swing LDm to Con 5.00%

199

 Cunninghame North [Brian Wilson] Lab 16574 Con 13759 SNP 7584 LDm 2271 SocLab 501 Ref 440 Lab hold 2815 (6.84%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

200

 Brighton Pavilion [David Lepper] Lab 21842 Con 18451 LDm 4644 Ref 1304 Grn 1249 IndC 1098 UKInd 179 SGP 125 RDrm 59 Lab hold 3391 (6.93%) Swing Lab to Con 10.00%

Notes: Table was generated by UK-Elect v4.5, based on 1997 General Election results. The names in square brackets are the candidates who previously represented the party now forecast to win. Where the Conservatives are second the additional swing required to win a seat can be obtained by halving the majority. The table filtering was set to include constituencies in Great Britain only (excluding Northern Ireland). All forecasts are based on a swing from the 1997 results, but the gain and swing details in the table are comparisons with the current situation in that constituency, which may have been the result of a by-election.

April 1992 May 1997 Feb 2000 Mar 2000 Apr 2000 May 2000 Jun 2000 Jul 2000 Aug 2000 Sep 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Dec 2000 Jan 2001 Feb 2001 Mar 2001 April 2001 May 2001 June 2001 5% Swing Con-Lab 5% Swing Lab-Con 10% Swing Lab-Con 15% Swing Lab-Con

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