UK-Elect Forecast, November 2000:
This month, the forecast is again based on the latest UK poll percentages. The percentage used was Lab 42%, Con 34%, Lib Dem 17%, Nationalists 3%. These figures reflect a continuing drift back to Labour after the September fuel price protests.
Overall, these forecast results show that Labour can hope for a substantial lead in terms of seats at the next election.
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Notes: A simple uniform percentage swing method was used, and applied to GB constituencies only. No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only. Base of forecast was constituency situation at 12/11/2000.
April 1992 May 1997 Feb 2000 Mar 2000 Apr 2000 May 2000 Jun 2000 Jul 2000 Aug 2000 Sep 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Dec 2000 Jan 2001 Feb 2001 May2001 5% Swing Con-Lab 5% Swing Lab-Con 10% Swing Lab-Con 15% Swing Lab-Con
