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Latest Forecast: Labour Lose, Tories Gain, Liberal Democrats Hold Balance of Power UK-Elect Forecast, October 2006. This forecast represents our current prediction for the next UK General Election. The percentages used for this forecast are Con 37%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 22%. Other parties votes were not specifically set. (If you prefer to forecast using your own percentages, the current opinion polls, or with a lower/higher level of tactical voting, download a trial version or browse the UK-Elect on-line shop. Also, if you would like to forecast the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or your own local election, as well as the General Election, then click here to purchase In this election simulation we assume that, after 12 or more years, there will continue to be some anti-government sentiment, and that therefore a maximum of 10% of people would be prepared to vote tactically against Labour in the right circumstances. (It should be emphasised that this figure is not the number that we think will vote tactically, simply the maximum number who would be prepared to do so if they lived in a constituency where the circumstances were right.) This tactical voting calculation is also now adjusted to take more account of party second-preferences (e.g. both Labour and Conservative supporters are more likely to be prepared to vote tactically for the Liberal Democrats than for each other.) Taking all these factors into account, the current UK-Elect forecast for General Election 2009/2010 is a hung parliament, with the Liberal Democrats holding the balance of power.
To forecast any constituency in any British election (General, Scottish, Welsh, London, UK European or your local council) -visit the UK-Elect online shop or download a trial version Notes: The maps, graphics, results and predictions included on this web site were all produced by UK-Elect. The forecast base was a modified form of the 2005 General Election constituency situation, taking into account the latest constituency boundary changes. A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. The assumption was made that up to 10% of the electorate would be prepared to consider voting tactically against the Labour Party (Note to UK-Elect users: the simulation was set to take account of party vote transfer preferences. The number of iterations was set to 3.) No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only. The Labour majority figure here simply excludes the speaker from the calculation (Note: normally, in the event of a tie, the Speaker will vote with the Government.) April 1992 May 1997 Apr 2000 Dec 2000 April 2001 May 2001 June 2001 (Forecast) June 2001 Dec 2001 Apr 2002 Sep 2002 May 2003 Oct 2003 Feb 2004 July 2004 Nov 2004 Jan 2005 Feb 2005 March 5th 2005 March 20th 2005 April 3rd/10th Forecast April 17th Forecast, May 2005 (Forecast) May 2005 (Election) Latest Forecast |
