Best Prospects for Labour Gains in 2001
This chart shows the top 100 prospects for Labour gains in 2001, sorted from easiest to most difficult.
UK-Elect Forecast for June 2001 Best Prospects for Labour Gains Best Prospects for Conservative Gains Best Prospects for Liberal Democrat Gains
Pos. |
Constituency |
Winner |
Votes |
Gain Info. |
Majority |
Swing Info. |
1 |
Dorset South |
Ian Bruce |
Con 17755 Lab 17678 LDm 9936 Ref 2791 UKInd 861 NLP 161 |
Con hold |
77 (0.16%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.21% |
2 |
Bedfordshire South West |
Sir David Madel |
Con 21534 Lab 21402 LDm 7559 Ref 1761 UKInd 446 NLP 162 |
Con hold |
132 (0.25%) |
Swing Con to Lab 15.10% |
3 |
Lichfield |
Michael Fabricant |
Con 20853 Lab 20615 LDm 5473 Ref 1652 |
Con hold |
238 (0.49%) |
Swing Con to Lab 9.97% |
4 |
Hexham |
Peter Atkinson |
Con 17701 Lab 17479 LDm 7959 Ref 1362 UKInd 1170 |
Con hold |
222 (0.49%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.87% |
5 |
Bury St Edmunds |
David Ruffley |
Con 21290 Lab 20922 LDm 10102 Ref 2939 NLP 272 |
Con hold |
368 (0.66%) |
Swing LDm to Con 0.58% |
6 |
Meriden |
Caroline Spelman |
Con 22997 Lab 22415 LDm 7098 Ref 2208 |
Con hold |
582 (1.06%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.57% |
7 |
Boston & Skegness |
Sir Richard Body |
Con 19750 Lab 19103 LDm 7721 |
Con hold |
647 (1.39%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.58% |
8 |
Beverley & Holderness |
James Cran |
Con 21629 Lab 20818 LDm 9689 UKInd 695 NLP 111 |
Con hold |
811 (1.53%) |
Swing Con to LDm 3.31% |
9 |
Bosworth |
David Tredinnick |
Con 21189 Lab 20162 LDm 9281 Ref 1521 |
Con hold |
1027 (1.97%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.66% |
10 |
Chipping Barnet |
Sir Sydney Chapman |
Con 21317 Lab 20282 LDm 6121 Ref 1190 Lny 253 ProLife 243 NLP 159 |
Con hold |
1035 (2.09%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.12% |
11 |
Norfolk Mid |
Keith Simpson |
Con 22739 Lab 21403 LDm 8617 Ref 3229 Grn 1254 NLP 215 |
Con hold |
1336 (2.33%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.07% |
12 |
Billericay |
Teresa Gorman |
Con 22033 Lab 20677 LDm 8763 LC 3377 ProLife 570 |
Con hold |
1356 (2.45%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.68% |
13 |
Altrincham & Sale West |
Graham Brady |
Con 22348 Lab 20843 LDm 6535 Ref 1348 ProLife 313 UKInd 270 NLP 125 |
Con hold |
1505 (2.91%) |
Swing Con to Lab 12.57% |
14 |
Suffolk West |
Richard Spring |
Con 20081 Lab 18214 LDm 6892 Ref 3724 NLP 171 |
Con hold |
1867 (3.80%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.01% |
15 |
Beckenham |
Jacqui Lait |
Con 13162 Lab 11935 LDm 5864 Lib 330 NF 267 NBRef 237 SocFound 69 NLP 44 |
Con hold |
1227 (3.85%) |
Swing Con to Lab 2.63% |
16 |
Basingstoke |
Andrew Hunter |
Con 24751 Lab 22354 LDm 9714 Ind 310 |
Con hold |
2397 (4.20%) |
Swing Con to Lab 12.10% |
17 |
Norfolk South West |
Mrs Gillian Shepherd |
Con 24694 Lab 22230 LDm 8178 Ref 3694 |
Con hold |
2464 (4.19%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.75% |
18 |
Eddisbury |
S O'Brien |
Con 15465 Lab 13859 LDm 4757 Lny 238 IndEuroCon 98 NLP 80 |
Con hold |
1606 (4.66%) |
Swing Lab to Con 1.13% |
19 |
Shropshire North |
Owen Paterson |
Con 20730 Lab 18535 LDm 10489 Ref 1764 |
Con hold |
2195 (4.26%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.21% |
20 |
Colchester |
Bob Russell |
LDm 17886 Con 16305 Lab 15891 Ref 1776 NLP 148 |
LDm gain from Con |
1581 (3.04%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.19% |
21 |
Wycombe |
Sir Ray Whitney |
Con 20890 Lab 18520 LDm 9678 Ref 2394 Grn 716 NLP 121 |
Con hold |
2370 (4.53%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.40% |
22 |
Aldridge-Brownhills |
Richard Shepherd |
Con 21856 Lab 19330 LDm 5184 |
Con hold |
2526 (5.45%) |
Swing Con to Lab 7.81% |
23 |
Grantham & Stamford |
Quentin Davies |
Con 22672 Lab 19980 LDm 6612 Ref 2721 UKInd 556 ProLife 314 NLP 115 |
Con hold |
2692 (5.08%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.34% |
24 |
Tweedale Ettrick & Lauderdale |
Michael Moore |
LDm 12178 Lab 10689 Con 8623 SNP 6671 Ref 406 Lib 387 NLP 47 |
LDm hold |
1489 (3.82%) |
Swing Con to LDm 2.38% |
25 |
Thanet North |
Roger Gale |
Con 21586 Lab 18820 LDm 5576 Ref 2535 UKInd 438 |
Con hold |
2766 (5.65%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.05% |
26 |
Hertsmere |
James Clappison |
Con 22305 Lab 19230 LDm 6466 Ref 1703 UKInd 453 NLP 191 |
Con hold |
3075 (6.11%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.97% |
27 |
Hertfordshire North East |
Oliver Heald |
Con 21712 Lab 18624 LDm 9493 Ref 2166 |
Con hold |
3088 (5.94%) |
Swing Con to LDm 0.88% |
28 |
Spelthorne |
David Wilshire |
Con 23306 Lab 19833 LDm 6821 Ref 1495 UKInd 462 |
Con hold |
3473 (6.69%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.46% |
29 |
Suffolk Coastal |
John Gummer |
Con 21696 Lab 18442 LDm 12036 Ref 3416 Grn 514 NLP 152 |
Con hold |
3254 (5.78%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.69% |
30 |
Stone |
William Cash |
Con 24859 Lab 21041 LDm 6392 Lib 545 NLP 237 |
Con hold |
3818 (7.19%) |
Swing Con to Lab 9.95% |
31 |
Suffolk Central & Ipswich North |
Michael Lord |
Con 22493 Lab 18955 LDm 10886 Ind 489 |
Con hold |
3538 (6.70%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.99% |
32 |
Ynys Mon |
Ieuan Wyn Jones |
PC 15756 Lab 13275 Con 8569 LDm 1537 Ref 793 |
PC hold |
2481 (6.21%) |
Swing Con to PC 7.72% |
33 |
Yorkshire East |
John Townend |
Con 20904 Lab 17567 LDm 9070 SDm 1049 NatDem 381 |
Con hold |
3337 (6.81%) |
Swing Con to Lab 8.65% |
34 |
Old Bexley & Sidcup |
Sir Edward Heath |
Con 21608 Lab 18039 LDm 8284 Ref 2457 UKInd 489 BNP 415 NLP 99 |
Con hold |
3569 (6.94%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.10% |
35 |
Southwark North & Bermondsey |
Simon Hughes |
LDm 19831 Lab 16444 Con 2835 BNP 713 Ref 545 CommL 175 Lib 157 NatDem 95 |
LDm hold |
3387 (8.30%) |
Swing LDm to Lab 4.28% |
36 |
Rushcliffe |
Kenneth Clarke |
Con 27558 Lab 22503 LDm 8851 Ref 2682 UKInd 403 NLP 115 |
Con hold |
5055 (8.14%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.54% |
37 |
Rochford & Southend East |
Sir Teddy Taylor |
Con 22683 Lab 18458 LDm 4387 Lib 1070 |
Con hold |
4225 (9.07%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.23% |
38 |
Banbury |
Antony Baldry |
Con 25076 Lab 20339 LDm 9761 Ref 2245 Grn 530 UKInd 364 NLP 131 |
Con hold |
4737 (8.10%) |
Swing Con to Lab 9.92% |
39 |
Faversham & Kent Mid |
Andrew Rowe |
Con 22016 Lab 17843 LDm 6138 Ref 2073 Lny 511 UKInd 431 Grn 380 GRLNSP 115 NLP 99 |
Con hold |
4173 (8.41%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.88% |
40 |
Canterbury |
Julian Brazier |
Con 20913 Lab 16949 LDm 12854 Ref 2460 Grn 588 UKInd 281 NLP 64 |
Con hold |
3964 (7.33%) |
Swing Con to LDm 1.46% |
41 |
Havant |
David Willetts |
Con 19204 Lab 15475 LDm 10806 Ref 2395 BIPFP 442 |
Con hold |
3729 (7.72%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.69% |
42 |
Bromsgrove |
Julie Kirkbride |
Con 24620 Lab 19725 LDm 6200 Ref 1411 UKInd 251 |
Con hold |
4895 (9.38%) |
Swing Con to Lab 7.01% |
43 |
Derbyshire West |
Patrick McLoughlin |
Con 23945 Lab 19060 LDm 9940 Ref 2499 IndGrn 593 UKInd 484 Lny 281 IndBB 81 |
Con hold |
4885 (8.59%) |
Swing Con to LDm 3.06% |
44 |
Cambridgeshire North East |
Malcolm Moss |
Con 23855 Lab 18754 LDm 9070 Ref 2636 SocLab 851 NLP 259 |
Con hold |
5101 (9.20%) |
Swing LDm to Con 2.04% |
45 |
Suffolk South |
Tim Yeo |
Con 19402 Lab 15227 LDm 14395 Ref 2740 NLP 211 |
Con hold |
4175 (8.03%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.72% |
46 |
Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross |
Robert Maclennan |
LDm 10381 Lab 8122 SNP 6710 Con 3148 Ref 369 Grn 230 UKInd 212 |
LDm hold |
2259 (7.74%) |
Swing Con to LDm 0.98% |
47 |
Epping Forest |
Eleanor Laing |
Con 24117 Lab 18865 LDm 7074 Ref 2208 BNP 743 |
Con hold |
5252 (9.91%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.64% |
48 |
Sleaford & North Hykeham |
Douglas Hogg |
Con 23358 Lab 18235 LDm 8063 Ref 2942 Ind 578 |
Con hold |
5123 (9.63%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.44% |
49 |
Charnwood |
Stephen Dorrell |
Con 26110 Lab 20210 LDm 7224 Ref 2104 BNP 525 |
Con hold |
5900 (10.50%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.23% |
50 |
Uxbridge |
John Randall |
Con 16288 Lab 12522 LDm 1792 Lny 396 SP 259 BNP 205 NatDem 157 NF 110 Org Lib. 69 UKInd 39 Rainbow 30 |
Con hold |
3766 (11.82%) |
Swing Lab to Con 5.04% |
51 |
Ashford |
Damian Green |
Con 22899 Lab 17544 LDm 10901 Ref 3201 Grn 660 NLP 89 |
Con hold |
5355 (9.68%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.42% |
52 |
Eastleigh |
David Chidgey |
LDm 19453 Con 18699 Lab 14883 Ref 2013 UKInd 446 |
LDm gain from Con |
754 (1.36%) |
Swing Con to LDm 11.26% |
53 |
Essex North |
Bernard Jenkin |
Con 22480 Lab 17004 LDm 10028 UKInd 1202 Grn 495 |
Con hold |
5476 (10.69%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.58% |
54 |
Cities of London & Westminster |
Peter Brooke |
Con 18981 Lab 14100 LDm 4933 Ref 1161 Barts 266 UKInd 215 NLP 176 Lny 138 Hemp 112 RDrm 73 |
Con hold |
4881 (12.16%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.53% |
55 |
Daventry |
Tim Boswell |
Con 28615 Lab 21237 LDm 9233 Ref 2018 UKInd 443 NLP 204 |
Con hold |
7378 (11.95%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.96% |
56 |
Ross Skye & Inverness West |
Charles Kennedy |
LDm 15472 Lab 11453 SNP 7821 Con 4368 Ref 535 Grn 306 |
LDm hold |
4019 (10.06%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.48% |
57 |
Blaby |
Andrew Robathan |
Con 24564 Lab 18090 LDm 8001 Ref 2018 BNP 523 Ind 397 |
Con hold |
6474 (12.08%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.48% |
58 |
Bedfordshire North East |
Sir Nicholas Lyell |
Con 22311 Lab 16428 LDm 7179 Ref 2490 IndC 1842 NLP 138 |
Con hold |
5883 (11.68%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.82% |
59 |
Wantage |
Robert Jackson |
Con 22311 Lab 16272 LDm 14822 Ref 1549 Grn 640 UKInd 465 |
Con hold |
6039 (10.77%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.90% |
60 |
Chingford & Woodford Green |
Iain Duncan Smith |
Con 21109 Lab 15395 LDm 6885 BNP 1059 |
Con hold |
5714 (12.86%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.81% |
61 |
Hitchin & Harpenden |
Peter Lilley |
Con 24038 Lab 17367 LDm 10515 NLP 290 SP 217 |
Con hold |
6671 (12.72%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.92% |
62 |
Hertford & Stortford |
Bowen Wells |
Con 24027 Lab 17142 LDm 9679 Ref 2105 UKInd 1223 ProLife 259 Logic 126 |
Con hold |
6885 (12.62%) |
Swing Con to LDm 2.36% |
63 |
Broxbourne |
Marion Roe |
Con 22952 Lab 16299 LDm 5310 Ref 1633 BNP 610 TW 172 |
Con hold |
6653 (14.16%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.36% |
64 |
Bedfordshire Mid |
Jonathan Sayeed |
Con 24176 Lab 17086 LDm 8823 Ref 2257 NLP 174 |
Con hold |
7090 (13.50%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.55% |
65 |
Gosport |
Peter Viggers |
Con 21085 Lab 14827 LDm 9479 Ref 2538 Ind 426 |
Con hold |
6258 (12.94%) |
Swing Con to LDm 3.26% |
66 |
Staffordshire South |
Sir Patrick Cormack |
Con 25568 Lab 17747 LDm 5797 Ref 2002 |
Con hold |
7821 (15.30%) |
Swing Con to Lab 9.05% |
67 |
Norfolk North |
David Prior |
Con 21456 LDm 20163 Lab 14736 Ref 2458 |
Con hold |
1293 (2.20%) |
Swing Con to LDm 9.42% |
68 |
Louth & Horncastle |
Sir Peter Tapsell |
Con 21699 Lab 14799 LDm 12207 Grn 1248 |
Con hold |
6900 (13.81%) |
Swing Con to LDm 1.01% |
69 |
Perth |
Roseanna Cunningham |
SNP 16209 Con 13068 Lab 11036 LDm 3583 Ref 366 UKInd 289 |
SNP gain from Con |
3141 (7.05%) |
Swing Con to SNP 6.56% |
70 |
Macclesfield |
Nicholas Winterton |
Con 26888 Lab 18234 LDm 9075 |
Con hold |
8654 (15.97%) |
Swing Con to Lab 8.58% |
71 |
South Holland & The Deepings |
John Hayes |
Con 24691 Lab 16700 LDm 7836 NPC 902 |
Con hold |
7991 (15.94%) |
Swing Con to Lab 8.50% |
72 |
Devon South West |
Gary Streeter |
Con 22695 Lab 15262 LDm 12542 Ref 1668 UKInd 491 NLP 159 |
Con hold |
7433 (14.07%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.42% |
73 |
Bridgwater |
Tom King |
Con 20174 LDm 18378 Lab 13519 Ref 2551 |
Con hold |
1796 (3.29%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.89% |
74 |
Cambridgeshire North West |
Dr Brian Mawhinney |
Con 23488 Lab 15734 LDm 7388 Ref 1939 UKInd 269 |
Con hold |
7754 (15.88%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.29% |
75 |
Gainsborough |
Edward Leigh |
Con 20593 Lab 13767 LDm 13436 |
Con hold |
6826 (14.28%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.32% |
76 |
Congleton |
Ann Winterton |
Con 22012 LDm 15882 Lab 14714 UKInd 811 |
Con hold |
6130 (11.48%) |
Swing Con to LDm 2.65% |
77 |
Ruislip-Northwood |
John Wilkinson |
Con 22526 Lab 14732 LDm 7279 NLP 296 |
Con hold |
7794 (17.38%) |
Swing Con to Lab 12.81% |
78 |
Brecon & Radnorshire |
Richard Livsey |
LDm 17516 Con 12419 Lab 11424 Ref 900 PC 622 |
LDm gain from Con |
5097 (11.89%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.09% |
79 |
Norfolk South |
John MacGregor |
Con 24935 LDm 17557 Lab 16188 Ref 2533 Grn 484 UKInd 400 |
Con hold |
7378 (11.88%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.78% |
80 |
Chelmsford West |
Simon Burns |
Con 23781 LDm 17090 Lab 15436 Ref 1536 Grn 411 UKInd 323 |
Con hold |
6691 (11.42%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.23% |
81 |
Fylde |
Michael Jack |
Con 25443 Lab 16480 LDm 7609 Ref 2372 NLP 163 |
Con hold |
8963 (17.21%) |
Swing Con to LDm 2.65% |
82 |
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton |
Nick Gibb |
Con 20537 Lab 13216 LDm 11153 UKInd 1537 |
Con hold |
7321 (15.76%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.96% |
83 |
Portsmouth South |
Mike Hancock |
LDm 20421 Con 16094 Lab 13086 Ref 1629 Lib 184 UKInd 141 NLP 140 |
LDm gain from Con |
4327 (8.37%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.41% |
84 |
Folkestone & Hythe |
Michael Howard |
Con 20313 LDm 13981 Lab 12939 Ref 4188 UKInd 378 SP 182 CFSS 69 |
Con hold |
6332 (12.17%) |
Swing Con to LDm 2.41% |
85 |
Reigate |
Crispin Blunt |
Con 21123 Lab 13382 LDm 9615 Ref 3352 Ind 412 UKInd 290 |
Con hold |
7741 (16.07%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.77% |
86 |
Rutland & Melton |
Alan Duncan |
Con 24107 Lab 15271 LDm 10112 Ref 2317 UKInd 823 |
Con hold |
8836 (16.79%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.03% |
87 |
Bracknell |
Andrew Mackay |
Con 27983 Lab 17596 LDm 9122 NLab 1909 Ref 1636 UKInd 569 ProLife 276 |
Con hold |
10387 (17.58%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.29% |
88 |
Kingston & Surbiton |
Edward Davey |
LDm 20411 Con 20355 Lab 12811 Ref 1470 UKInd 418 RDrm 100 NLP 100 |
LDm gain from Con |
56 (0.10%) |
Swing Con to LDm 13.60% |
89 |
Carshalton & Wallington |
Thomas Brake |
LDm 18490 Con 16223 Lab 11565 Ref 1289 Grn 377 BNP 261 UKInd 218 |
LDm gain from Con |
2267 (4.68%) |
Swing Con to LDm 11.76% |
90 |
Cambridgeshire South East |
James Paice |
Con 24397 Lab 15048 LDm 14246 Ref 2838 Fair 167 NLP 111 |
Con hold |
9349 (16.46%) |
Swing Con to LDm 9.19% |
91 |
Worcestershire Mid |
Peter luff |
Con 24092 Lab 14680 LDm 9458 Ref 1780 UKInd 646 NLP 163 |
Con hold |
9412 (18.52%) |
Swing Con to LDm 0.02% |
92 |
Hertfordshire South West |
Richard Page |
Con 25462 Lab 15441 LDm 12381 Ref 1853 NLP 274 |
Con hold |
10021 (18.08%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.51% |
93 |
Runnymede & Weybridge |
Philip Hammond |
Con 25051 Lab 15176 LDm 8397 Ref 2150 UKInd 625 NLP 162 |
Con hold |
9875 (19.15%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.00% |
94 |
Harborough |
Edward Garnier |
Con 22170 LDm 15646 Lab 13332 Ref 1859 |
Con hold |
6524 (12.31%) |
Swing Con to LDm 2.99% |
95 |
Ludlow |
Christopher Gill |
Con 19633 LDm 13724 Lab 11745 Grn 798 UKInd 385 |
Con hold |
5909 (12.77%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.63% |
96 |
Cambridgeshire South |
Andrew Lansley |
Con 22572 LDm 13860 Lab 13485 Ref 3300 UKInd 298 NLP 168 |
Con hold |
8712 (16.23%) |
Swing Con to LDm 8.72% |
97 |
Maidstone & The Weald |
Ann Widdecombe |
Con 23657 Lab 14054 LDm 11986 Ref 1998 SocLab 979 Grn 480 UKInd 339 NLP 115 |
Con hold |
9603 (17.91%) |
Swing Con to LDm 2.03% |
98 |
Vale of York |
Anne McIntosh |
Con 23815 Lab 14094 LDm 12656 Ref 2503 SDm 197 |
Con hold |
9721 (18.25%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.91% |
99 |
Worthing East & Shoreham |
Tim Loughton |
Con 20864 LDm 15766 Lab 12335 Ref 1683 UKInd 921 |
Con hold |
5098 (9.89%) |
Swing Con to LDm 3.88% |
100 |
Maldon & Chelmsford East |
John Whittingdale |
Con 24524 Lab 14485 LDm 9758 UKInd 935 Grn 685 |
Con hold |
10039 (19.92%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.27% |
Notes: Table was generated by UK-Elect v4.5, and reflects situation at 10th February 2001. Where Labour are second the swing required to win a seat can be obtained by halving the majority. The table filtering was set to include constituencies in Great Britain only (excluding Northern Ireland). Gains and swings are compared to the previous election in that constituency. Where constituency boundaries changed between 1992 and 1997, estimates of what the 1992 results would have been if the 1997 boundaries had been used are taken from the definitive work by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher: "Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies" (ISBN: 0 948858 21 4)