Best Prospects for Liberal Democrat Gains in 2001
This chart shows the top 100 prospects for Liberal Democrat gains in 2001, sorted from easiest to most difficult.
UK-Elect Forecast for June 2001 Best Prospects for Labour Gains Best Prospects for Conservative Gains Best Prospects for Liberal Democrat Gains
Pos. |
Constituency |
Winner |
Votes |
Gain Info. |
Majority |
Swing Info. |
1 |
Teignbridge |
Patrick Nicholls |
Con 24679 LDm 24398 Lab 11311 UKInd 1601 Grn 817 RDrm 139 |
Con hold |
281 (0.45%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.34% |
2 |
Wells |
David Heathcoat-Amory |
Con 22208 LDm 21680 Lab 10204 Ref 2196 NLP 92 |
Con hold |
528 (0.94%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.29% |
3 |
Dorset Mid & Poole North |
Christopher Fraser |
Con 20632 LDm 19951 Lab 8014 Ref 2136 |
Con hold |
681 (1.34%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.39% |
4 |
Totnes |
Sir Anthony Steen |
Con 19637 LDm 18760 Lab 8796 Ref 2552 Loc Con 2369 UKInd 999 Grn 548 RDrm 108 |
Con hold |
877 (1.63%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.81% |
5 |
Norfolk North |
David Prior |
Con 21456 LDm 20163 Lab 14736 Ref 2458 |
Con hold |
1293 (2.20%) |
Swing Con to LDm 9.42% |
6 |
Tiverton & Honiton |
Mrs Angela Browning |
Con 24438 LDm 22785 Lab 7598 Ref 2952 Lib 635 Grn 485 NatDem 236 |
Con hold |
1653 (2.80%) |
Swing Con to LDm 8.40% |
7 |
Christchurch |
Christopher Chope |
Con 26095 LDm 23930 Lab 3884 Ref 1684 UKInd 606 |
Con hold |
2165 (3.85%) |
Swing Con to LDm 18.28% |
8 |
Dorset West |
Oliver Letwin |
Con 22036 LDm 20196 Lab 9491 UKInd 1590 NLP 239 |
Con hold |
1840 (3.44%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.62% |
9 |
Bridgwater |
Tom King |
Con 20174 LDm 18378 Lab 13519 Ref 2551 |
Con hold |
1796 (3.29%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.89% |
10 |
Eastbourne |
Nigel Waterson |
Con 22183 LDm 20189 Lab 6576 Ref 2724 Lib 741 UKInd 254 |
Con hold |
1994 (3.79%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.01% |
11 |
Surrey South West |
Virginia Bottomley |
Con 25165 LDm 22471 Lab 5333 Ref 2830 UKInd 401 ProLife 258 |
Con hold |
2694 (4.77%) |
Swing Con to LDm 10.13% |
12 |
Conwy |
Betty Williams |
Lab 14561 LDm 12965 Con 10085 PC 2844 Ref 760 AltLD 250 NLP 95 |
Lab gain from Con |
1596 (3.84%) |
Swing Con to Lab 9.37% |
13 |
Dorset North |
Robert Walter |
Con 23294 LDm 20548 Lab 5380 Ref 2564 UKInd 801 |
Con hold |
2746 (5.22%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.94% |
14 |
Orpington |
John Horam |
Con 24417 LDm 21465 Lab 10753 Ref 2316 UKInd 526 Lib 494 ProLife 191 |
Con hold |
2952 (4.91%) |
Swing Con to LDm 11.02% |
15 |
Wiltshire North |
James Gray |
Con 25390 LDm 21915 Lab 8261 Ref 1774 UKInd 410 NLP 263 |
Con hold |
3475 (5.99%) |
Swing Con to LDm 9.33% |
16 |
Cheadle |
Stephen Day |
Con 22944 LDm 19755 Lab 8253 Ref 1511 |
Con hold |
3189 (6.08%) |
Swing Con to LDm 11.00% |
17 |
Southend West |
David Amess |
Con 18029 LDm 15414 Lab 10600 Ref 1734 UKInd 636 NLP 101 |
Con hold |
2615 (5.62%) |
Swing Con to LDm 9.10% |
18 |
Oldham East & Saddleworth |
Phil Woolas |
Lab 22546 LDm 19157 Con 10666 Ref 1116 SocLab 470 NLP 146 |
Lab gain from Con |
3389 (6.26%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.57% |
19 |
Worcestershire West |
Sir Michael Spicer |
Con 22223 LDm 18377 Lab 7738 Grn 1006 |
Con hold |
3846 (7.79%) |
Swing Con to LDm 8.84% |
20 |
Hastings & Rye |
Michael Foster |
Lab 16867 Con 14307 LDm 13717 Ref 2511 Lib 1046 UKInd 472 Lny 149 |
Lab gain from Con |
2560 (5.22%) |
Swing Con to Lab 18.52% |
21 |
Rochdale |
Ms Lorna Fitzsimons |
Lab 23758 LDm 19213 Con 4237 BNP 653 IZB 221 |
Lab gain from LDm |
4545 (9.45%) |
Swing LDm to Lab 4.85% |
22 |
Guildford |
Nick St Aubyn |
Con 24230 LDm 19439 Lab 9945 Ref 2650 UKInd 400 Pacifist 294 |
Con hold |
4791 (8.41%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.05% |
23 |
Bristol West |
Valerie Davey |
Lab 22068 Con 20575 LDm 17551 Ref 1304 Grn 852 SocLab 244 NLP 47 |
Lab gain from Con |
1493 (2.38%) |
Swing Con to Lab 12.08% |
24 |
Westmorland & Lonsdale |
Tim Collins |
Con 21470 LDm 16949 Lab 10459 Ref 1931 |
Con hold |
4521 (8.90%) |
Swing Con to LDm 10.26% |
25 |
Aberdeen South |
Anne Begg |
Lab 15541 LDm 12176 Con 11621 SNP 4299 Ref 425 |
Lab gain from Con |
3365 (7.64%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.18% |
26 |
Chesterfield |
Tony Benn |
Lab 26105 LDm 20330 Con 4752 IndOAP 202 |
Lab hold |
5775 (11.24%) |
Swing Lab to LDm 0.11% |
27 |
Ryedale |
Jogn Greenway |
Con 21351 LDm 16293 Lab 8762 Ref 1460 UKInd 917 |
Con hold |
5058 (10.37%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.52% |
28 |
Bournemouth East |
David Atkinson |
Con 17997 LDm 13651 Lab 9181 Ref 1808 UKInd 791 |
Con hold |
4346 (10.01%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.20% |
29 |
Worthing East & Shoreham |
Tim Loughton |
Con 20864 LDm 15766 Lab 12335 Ref 1683 UKInd 921 |
Con hold |
5098 (9.89%) |
Swing Con to LDm 3.88% |
30 |
New Forest East |
Dr Julian Lewis |
Con 21053 LDm 15838 Lab 5161 |
Con hold |
5215 (12.40%) |
Swing Con to LDm 3.61% |
31 |
Ribble Valley |
Nigel Evans |
Con 26702 LDm 20062 Lab 9013 Ref 1297 NLP 147 |
Con hold |
6640 (11.60%) |
Swing Con to LDm 1.37% |
32 |
Salisbury |
Robert Key |
Con 25012 LDm 18736 Lab 10242 UKInd 3332 Grn 623 Ind 184 NLP 110 |
Con hold |
6276 (10.78%) |
Swing Con to LDm 2.01% |
33 |
Falmouth & Cambourne |
Candy Atherton |
Lab 18151 Con 15463 LDm 13512 Ref 3534 IndL 1691 Lib 527 UKInd 355 MK 238 Lny 161 |
Lab gain from Con |
2688 (5.01%) |
Swing Con to Lab 6.36% |
34 |
Suffolk South |
Tim Yeo |
Con 19402 Lab 15227 LDm 14395 Ref 2740 NLP 211 |
Con hold |
4175 (8.03%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.72% |
35 |
Westbury |
David Faber |
Con 23037 LDm 16969 Lab 11969 Lib 1956 Ref 1909 UKInd 771 NLP 140 |
Con hold |
6068 (10.69%) |
Swing Con to LDm 3.81% |
36 |
Poole |
Robert Syms |
Con 19726 LDm 14428 Lab 10100 Ref 1932 UKInd 487 NLP 137 |
Con hold |
5298 (11.32%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.22% |
37 |
Congleton |
Ann Winterton |
Con 22012 LDm 15882 Lab 14714 UKInd 811 |
Con hold |
6130 (11.48%) |
Swing Con to LDm 2.65% |
38 |
Chelmsford West |
Simon Burns |
Con 23781 LDm 17090 Lab 15436 Ref 1536 Grn 411 UKInd 323 |
Con hold |
6691 (11.42%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.23% |
39 |
Aldershot |
Gerald Howarth |
Con 23119 LDm 16498 Lab 13057 UKInd 794 Ind 361 BNP 322 |
Con hold |
6621 (12.23%) |
Swing Con to LDm 9.75% |
40 |
Woking |
Humfrey Malins |
Con 19553 LDm 13875 Lab 10695 IndC 3933 Ref 2209 UKInd 512 NLP 137 |
Con hold |
5678 (11.15%) |
Swing Con to LDm 10.44% |
41 |
Harborough |
Edward Garnier |
Con 22170 LDm 15646 Lab 13332 Ref 1859 |
Con hold |
6524 (12.31%) |
Swing Con to LDm 2.99% |
42 |
Sussex Mid |
Nicholas Soames |
Con 23231 LDm 16377 Lab 9969 Ref 3146 UKInd 606 IndJRP 134 |
Con hold |
6854 (12.82%) |
Swing Con to LDm 8.93% |
43 |
Norfolk South |
John MacGregor |
Con 24935 LDm 17557 Lab 16188 Ref 2533 Grn 484 UKInd 400 |
Con hold |
7378 (11.88%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.78% |
44 |
Birmingham Yardley |
Estelle Morris |
Lab 17778 LDm 12463 Con 6736 Ref 646 UKInd 164 |
Lab hold |
5315 (14.07%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.42% |
45 |
Ludlow |
Christopher Gill |
Con 19633 LDm 13724 Lab 11745 Grn 798 UKInd 385 |
Con hold |
5909 (12.77%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.63% |
46 |
Folkestone & Hythe |
Michael Howard |
Con 20313 LDm 13981 Lab 12939 Ref 4188 UKInd 378 SP 182 CFSS 69 |
Con hold |
6332 (12.17%) |
Swing Con to LDm 2.41% |
47 |
Woodspring |
Dr Liam Fox |
Con 24425 LDm 16691 Lab 11377 Ref 1614 Grn 667 Ind 101 NLP 52 |
Con hold |
7734 (14.08%) |
Swing Con to LDm 3.80% |
48 |
Shrewsbury & Atcham |
Paul Marsden |
Lab 20484 Con 18814 LDm 13838 Ref 1346 UKInd 477 CFSS 257 PPP 128 |
Lab gain from Con |
1670 (3.02%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.40% |
49 |
Worthing West |
Peter Bottomley |
Con 23733 LDm 16020 Lab 8347 Ref 2313 UKInd 1029 |
Con hold |
7713 (14.99%) |
Swing Con to LDm 9.62% |
50 |
Devon East |
Sir Peter Emery |
Con 22797 LDm 15308 Lab 9292 Ref 3200 Lib 1363 UKInd 459 NatDem 131 |
Con hold |
7489 (14.25%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.60% |
51 |
Aylesbury |
David Lidington |
Con 25426 LDm 17007 Lab 12759 Ref 2196 NLP 166 |
Con hold |
8419 (14.63%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.46% |
52 |
Bournemouth West |
John Butterfill |
Con 17115 LDm 11405 Lab 10093 Ref 1910 UKInd 281 BNP 165 NLP 103 |
Con hold |
5710 (13.90%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.59% |
53 |
Wantage |
Robert Jackson |
Con 22311 Lab 16272 LDm 14822 Ref 1549 Grn 640 UKInd 465 |
Con hold |
6039 (10.77%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.90% |
54 |
Tunbridge Wells |
Archie Norman |
Con 21853 LDm 14347 Lab 9879 Ref 1858 UKInd 264 NLP 153 |
Con hold |
7506 (15.52%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.02% |
55 |
Haltemprice & Howden |
David Davis |
Con 21809 LDm 14295 Lab 11701 Ref 1370 UKInd 301 NLP 74 |
Con hold |
7514 (15.16%) |
Swing Con to LDm 9.48% |
56 |
Gainsborough |
Edward Leigh |
Con 20593 Lab 13767 LDm 13436 |
Con hold |
6826 (14.28%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.32% |
57 |
Leeds Central |
Hilary Benn |
Lab 6361 LDm 4068 Con 1618 Grn 478 UKInd 353 Left Al. 258 Parents 51 |
Lab hold |
2293 (17.39%) |
Swing Lab to Con 9.97% |
58 |
Wokingham |
John Redwood |
Con 25086 LDm 15721 Lab 8424 Lny 877 |
Con hold |
9365 (18.69%) |
Swing Con to LDm 8.71% |
59 |
Chichester |
Andrew Tyrie |
Con 25895 LDm 16161 Lab 9605 Ref 3318 UKInd 800 |
Con hold |
9734 (17.45%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.62% |
60 |
Devizes |
Michael Ancram |
Con 25710 LDm 15928 Lab 14551 Ref 3021 UKInd 622 NLP 204 |
Con hold |
9782 (16.29%) |
Swing Con to LDm 2.11% |
61 |
Canterbury |
Julian Brazier |
Con 20913 Lab 16949 LDm 12854 Ref 2460 Grn 588 UKInd 281 NLP 64 |
Con hold |
3964 (7.33%) |
Swing Con to LDm 1.46% |
62 |
Cambridgeshire South |
Andrew Lansley |
Con 22572 LDm 13860 Lab 13485 Ref 3300 UKInd 298 NLP 168 |
Con hold |
8712 (16.23%) |
Swing Con to LDm 8.72% |
63 |
Tewkesbury |
Lawrence Robertson |
Con 23859 LDm 14625 Lab 13665 |
Con hold |
9234 (17.71%) |
Swing Con to LDm 0.46% |
64 |
Mole Valley |
Sir Paul Beresford |
Con 26178 LDm 15957 Lab 8057 Ref 2424 IndCRP 1276 UKInd 435 NLP 197 |
Con hold |
10221 (18.75%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.98% |
65 |
Windsor |
Michael Trend |
Con 24476 LDm 14559 Lab 9287 Ref 1676 Lib 388 UKInd 302 Dynamic 93 |
Con hold |
9917 (19.53%) |
Swing Con to LDm 3.82% |
66 |
Leeds North West |
Harold Best |
Lab 19694 Con 15850 LDm 11689 Ref 1325 SocLab 335 ProLife 251 RRP 232 |
Lab gain from Con |
3844 (7.79%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.77% |
67 |
Saffron Walden |
Alan Haselhurst |
Con 25871 LDm 15298 Lab 12275 Ref 2308 UKInd 658 Ind 486 NLP 154 |
Con hold |
10573 (18.53%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.72% |
68 |
Hampshire East |
Michael Mates |
Con 27927 LDm 16337 Lab 9945 Ref 2757 Grn 649 UKInd 513 |
Con hold |
11590 (19.94%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.60% |
69 |
Cambridgeshire South East |
James Paice |
Con 24397 Lab 15048 LDm 14246 Ref 2838 Fair 167 NLP 111 |
Con hold |
9349 (16.46%) |
Swing Con to LDm 9.19% |
70 |
Brentwood & Ongar |
Eric Pickles |
Con 23031 LDm 13341 Lab 11231 Ref 2658 UKInd 465 |
Con hold |
9690 (19.10%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.03% |
71 |
Cardiff Central |
Jon Owen Jones |
Lab 18464 LDm 10541 Con 8470 SocLab 2230 PC 1504 Ref 760 Lny 204 NLP 80 |
Lab hold |
7923 (18.75%) |
Swing Con to Lab 7.79% |
72 |
Solihull |
John Taylor |
Con 26299 LDm 14902 Lab 14334 Ref 2748 ProLife 623 |
Con hold |
11397 (19.35%) |
Swing Con to LDm 10.25% |
73 |
Havant |
David Willetts |
Con 19204 Lab 15475 LDm 10806 Ref 2395 BIPFP 442 |
Con hold |
3729 (7.72%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.69% |
74 |
Louth & Horncastle |
Sir Peter Tapsell |
Con 21699 Lab 14799 LDm 12207 Grn 1248 |
Con hold |
6900 (13.81%) |
Swing Con to LDm 1.01% |
75 |
Penrith & The Border |
David Maclean |
Con 23300 LDm 13067 Lab 10576 Ref 2018 |
Con hold |
10233 (20.90%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.39% |
76 |
Dorset South |
Ian Bruce |
Con 17755 Lab 17678 LDm 9936 Ref 2791 UKInd 861 NLP 161 |
Con hold |
77 (0.16%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.21% |
77 |
Suffolk Coastal |
John Gummer |
Con 21696 Lab 18442 LDm 12036 Ref 3416 Grn 514 NLP 152 |
Con hold |
3254 (5.78%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.69% |
78 |
Devon South West |
Gary Streeter |
Con 22695 Lab 15262 LDm 12542 Ref 1668 UKInd 491 NLP 159 |
Con hold |
7433 (14.07%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.42% |
79 |
New Forest West |
Desmond Swayne |
Con 25149 LDm 13817 Lab 7092 Ref 2150 UKInd 1542 |
Con hold |
11332 (22.78%) |
Swing Con to LDm 3.70% |
80 |
Colne Valley |
Kali Mountford |
Lab 23285 Con 18445 LDm 12755 SocLab 759 Grn 493 UKInd 478 Lny 196 |
Lab gain from Con |
4840 (8.58%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.41% |
81 |
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton |
Nick Gibb |
Con 20537 Lab 13216 LDm 11153 UKInd 1537 |
Con hold |
7321 (15.76%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.96% |
82 |
Skipton & Ripon |
David Curry |
Con 25294 LDm 13674 Lab 12171 Ref 3212 |
Con hold |
11620 (21.38%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.59% |
83 |
Ceredigion |
Simon Thomas |
PC 10716 LDm 5768 Con 4138 Lab 3612 UKInd 487 IndGrn 289 WalesSun 55 |
PC hold |
4948 (19.74%) |
Swing Lab to PC 5.51% |
84 |
Henley |
Michael Heseltine |
Con 23908 LDm 12741 Lab 11700 Ref 2299 Grn 514 NLP 221 Whig 160 |
Con hold |
11167 (21.67%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.21% |
85 |
Hampshire North West |
Sir George Young |
Con 24730 LDm 13179 Lab 12900 Ref 1533 UKInd 1383 Grn 486 Bypass 231 Ind 225 |
Con hold |
11551 (21.13%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.47% |
86 |
Vale of York |
Anne McIntosh |
Con 23815 Lab 14094 LDm 12656 Ref 2503 SDm 197 |
Con hold |
9721 (18.25%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.91% |
87 |
Sevenoaks |
Michael Fallon |
Con 22776 Lab 12315 LDm 12086 Ref 2138 Grn 443 PF 244 NLP 147 |
Con hold |
10461 (20.86%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.87% |
88 |
Stratford-on-Avon |
John Maples |
Con 29967 LDm 15861 Lab 12754 Ref 2064 UKInd 556 NLP 307 SFDC 306 ProLife 284 |
Con hold |
14106 (22.72%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.22% |
89 |
Bexhill & Battle |
Charles Wardle |
Con 23570 LDm 12470 Lab 8866 Ref 3302 UKInd 786 |
Con hold |
11100 (22.66%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.38% |
90 |
Maidenhead |
Theresa May |
Con 25344 LDm 13363 Lab 9205 Ref 1638 Lib 896 UKInd 277 Glow 166 |
Con hold |
11981 (23.54%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.09% |
91 |
Wealden |
Sir G. Johnson Smith |
Con 29417 LDm 15213 Lab 10185 Ref 3527 UKInd 569 NLP 188 |
Con hold |
14204 (24.03%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.32% |
92 |
Inverness East Nairn & Lochaber |
David Stewart |
Lab 16187 SNP 13848 LDm 8364 Con 8355 Ref 436 Grn 354 CU 224 |
Lab gain from LDm |
2339 (4.90%) |
Swing LDm to Lab 9.95% |
93 |
Bromley & Chislehurst |
Eric Forth |
Con 24428 Lab 13310 LDm 12530 UKInd 1176 Grn 640 NF 369 Lib 285 |
Con hold |
11118 (21.08%) |
Swing Con to LDm 10.78% |
94 |
Maidstone & The Weald |
Ann Widdecombe |
Con 23657 Lab 14054 LDm 11986 Ref 1998 SocLab 979 Grn 480 UKInd 339 NLP 115 |
Con hold |
9603 (17.91%) |
Swing Con to LDm 2.03% |
95 |
Shropshire North |
Owen Paterson |
Con 20730 Lab 18535 LDm 10489 Ref 1764 |
Con hold |
2195 (4.26%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.21% |
96 |
St Albans |
Kerry Pollard |
Lab 21338 Con 16879 LDm 10692 Ref 1619 RDrm 166 NLP 111 |
Lab gain from Con |
4459 (8.78%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.70% |
97 |
Epsom & Ewell |
Sir Archibald Hamilton |
Con 24717 Lab 13192 LDm 12380 Ref 2355 UKInd 544 Grn 527 ProLife 466 |
Con hold |
11525 (21.27%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.52% |
98 |
Cotswold |
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown |
Con 23698 LDm 11733 Lab 11608 Ref 3393 Grn 560 NLP 129 |
Con hold |
11965 (23.41%) |
Swing LDm to Con 1.19% |
99 |
Buckingham |
John Bercow |
Con 24594 Lab 12208 LDm 12175 NLP 421 |
Con hold |
12386 (25.07%) |
Swing Con to LDm 8.14% |
100 |
Horsham |
Francis Maude |
Con 29015 LDm 14153 Lab 10691 Ref 2281 UKInd 819 FEP 206 |
Con hold |
14862 (26.00%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.76% |
Notes: Table was generated by UK-Elect v4.5, and reflects situation at 10th February 2001. Where the Liberal Democrats are second the swing required to win a seat can be obtained by halving the majority. The table filtering was set to include constituencies in Great Britain only (excluding Northern Ireland). Gains and swings are compared to the previous election in that constituency. Where constituency boundaries changed between 1992 and 1997, estimates of what the 1992 results would have been if the 1997 boundaries had been used are taken from the definitive work by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher: "Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies" (ISBN: 0 948858 21 4)