UK-Elect Forecast, July 2000:
This month, the forecast is again based on an approximate average of the latest GB poll percentages, adjusted slightly to take account of recent local and by-election results. The percentage used was Lab 42%, Con 34%, Lib Dem 15%, Nationalists 3% - these percentages represent a significant move from Labour to the opposition parties during the last few months, (although not as much as in a few polls) but would still leave Labour with a very significant parliamentary majority - putting their recent undoubted panic into perspective..
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Notes: A simple uniform percentage swing method was used, and applied to GB constituencies only. Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.
April 1992 May 1997 Feb 2000 Mar 2000 Apr 2000 May 2000 Jun 2000 Jul 2000 Aug 2000 Sep 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Dec 2000 Jan 2001 Feb 2001 May2001 5% Swing Con-Lab 5% Swing Lab-Con 10% Swing Lab-Con 15% Swing Lab-Con
