Latest Forecast: Narrow Conservative Majority

UK-Elect Forecast, September 2008. 

The percentages used for this forecast are Con 40%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 18%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.  (If you prefer to forecast using your own percentages, the current opinion polls, or with a lower/higher level of tactical voting, download a trial version or browse the UK-Elect on-line shop.

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In this election simulation we assume thata maximum of 5% of people would be prepared to vote tactically against Labour in the right circumstances. (It should be emphasised that this figure is not the number that we think will vote tactically, simply the maximum number who would be prepared to do so if they lived in a constituency where the circumstances were right.)

Taking all these factors into account, the current UK-Elect forecast for General Election 2009/2010  is for a narrow Conservative Majority:

Party Seats Change from 2005 election Conservative 338 +140 Labour 259 -96 Liberal Democrat 21 -41 DUP 9 - Scottish National Party 5 -1 Sinn Fein 5 - Plaid Cymru 5 +2 SDLP 3 - UUP 1 - Others 3 - Speaker 1 - Conservative Majority 28 -

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Notes: The forecast base was the 2005 General Election constituency situation, modified to take account of the latest constituency boundary changes. A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. The assumption was made that up to 5% of the electorate would be prepared to consider voting tactically against the Labour Party. No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only. The Labour majority figure here simply excludes the speaker from the calculation (Note: normally, in the event of a tie, the Speaker will vote with the Government.)