Best Prospects for Conservative Gains in 2001
This chart shows the top 100 prospects for Conservative gains in 2001, sorted from easiest to most difficult.
UK-Elect Forecast for June 2001 Best Prospects for Labour Gains Best Prospects for Conservative Gains Best Prospects for Liberal Democrat Gains
Pos. |
Constituency |
Winner |
Votes |
Gain Info. |
Majority |
Swing Info. |
1 |
Torbay |
Adrian Sanders |
LDm 21094 Con 21082 Lab 7923 UKInd 1962 Lib 1161 RDrm 100 |
LDm gain from Con |
12 (0.02%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.05% |
2 |
Kingston & Surbiton |
Edward Davey |
LDm 20411 Con 20355 Lab 12811 Ref 1470 UKInd 418 RDrm 100 NLP 100 |
LDm gain from Con |
56 (0.10%) |
Swing Con to LDm 13.60% |
3 |
Somerton & Frome |
David Heath |
LDm 22684 Con 22554 Lab 9385 Ref 2449 UKInd 331 |
LDm gain from Con |
130 (0.23%) |
Swing Con to LDm 3.68% |
4 |
Wellingborough |
Paul Stinchcombe |
Lab 24854 Con 24667 LDm 5279 UKInd 1192 NLP 297 |
Lab gain from Con |
187 (0.33%) |
Swing Con to Lab 9.93% |
5 |
Kettering |
Philip Sawford |
Lab 24650 Con 24461 LDm 6098 Ref 1551 NLP 197 |
Lab gain from Con |
189 (0.33%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.57% |
6 |
Milton Keynes North East |
Brian White |
Lab 20201 Con 19961 LDm 8907 Ref 1492 Grn 576 NLP 99 |
Lab gain from Con |
240 (0.47%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.19% |
7 |
Rugby & Kenilworth |
Andy King |
Lab 26356 Con 25861 LDm 8737 NLP 251 |
Lab gain from Con |
495 (0.81%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.61% |
8 |
Northampton South |
Tony Clark |
Lab 24214 Con 23470 LDm 6316 Ref 1405 UKInd 1159 NLP 541 |
Lab gain from Con |
744 (1.30%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.38% |
9 |
Romford |
Mrs Eileen Gordon |
Lab 18187 Con 17538 LDm 3341 Ref 1431 Lib 1100 BNP 522 |
Lab gain from Con |
649 (1.54%) |
Swing Con to Lab 15.65% |
10 |
Eastleigh |
David Chidgey |
LDm 19453 Con 18699 Lab 14883 Ref 2013 UKInd 446 |
LDm gain from Con |
754 (1.36%) |
Swing Con to LDm 11.26% |
11 |
Lancaster & Wyre |
Hilton Dawson |
Lab 25173 Con 23878 LDm 6802 Ref 1516 Grn 795 UKInd 698 |
Lab gain from Con |
1295 (2.20%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.64% |
12 |
Norfolk North West |
Dr George Turner |
Lab 25250 Con 23911 LDm 5513 Ref 2923 |
Lab gain from Con |
1339 (2.32%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.42% |
13 |
Castle Point |
Christine Butler |
Lab 20605 Con 19489 LDm 4477 Ref 2700 IDCP 1301 |
Lab gain from Con |
1116 (2.30%) |
Swing Con to Lab 16.93% |
14 |
Harrow West |
Gareth Thomas |
Lab 21811 Con 20571 LDm 8127 Ref 1997 |
Lab gain from Con |
1240 (2.36%) |
Swing Con to Lab 17.52% |
15 |
Harwich |
Ivan Henderson |
Lab 20740 Con 19524 LDm 7037 Ref 4923 CRP 1290 |
Lab gain from Con |
1216 (2.27%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.61% |
16 |
Weston-Super-Mare |
Brian Cotter |
LDm 21407 Con 20133 Lab 9557 Ref 2280 |
LDm gain from Con |
1274 (2.39%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.96% |
17 |
Braintree |
Alan Hurst |
Lab 23729 Con 22278 LDm 6418 Ref 2165 Grn 712 NewWay 274 |
Lab gain from Con |
1451 (2.61%) |
Swing Con to Lab 12.86% |
18 |
Lewes |
Norman Baker |
LDm 21250 Con 19950 Lab 5232 Ref 2481 UKInd 256 |
LDm gain from Con |
1300 (2.64%) |
Swing Con to LDm 7.43% |
19 |
Bristol West |
Valerie Davey |
Lab 22068 Con 20575 LDm 17551 Ref 1304 Grn 852 SocLab 244 NLP 47 |
Lab gain from Con |
1493 (2.38%) |
Swing Con to Lab 12.08% |
20 |
Enfield Southgate |
Stephen Twigg |
Lab 20570 Con 19137 LDm 4966 Ref 1342 CDem 289 Mal 229 |
Lab gain from Con |
1433 (3.08%) |
Swing Con to Lab 17.40% |
21 |
Devon West & Torridge |
John Burnett |
LDm 24744 Con 22787 Lab 7319 Ref 1946 UKInd 1841 Lib 508 |
LDm gain from Con |
1957 (3.31%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.36% |
22 |
Northavon |
Prof Steven Webb |
LDm 26500 Con 24363 Lab 9767 Ref 1900 |
LDm gain from Con |
2137 (3.42%) |
Swing Con to LDm 10.37% |
23 |
Shrewsbury & Atcham |
Paul Marsden |
Lab 20484 Con 18814 LDm 13838 Ref 1346 UKInd 477 CFSS 257 PPP 128 |
Lab gain from Con |
1670 (3.02%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.40% |
24 |
Colchester |
Bob Russell |
LDm 17886 Con 16305 Lab 15891 Ref 1776 NLP 148 |
LDm gain from Con |
1581 (3.04%) |
Swing Con to LDm 6.19% |
25 |
Taunton |
Mrs Jackie Ballard |
LDm 26064 Con 23621 Lab 8248 Ref 2760 BNP 318 |
LDm gain from Con |
2443 (4.00%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.60% |
26 |
Gillingham |
Paul Clark |
Lab 20187 Con 18207 LDm 9649 Ref 1492 UKInd 590 Lny 305 BNP 195 NLP 58 |
Lab gain from Con |
1980 (3.91%) |
Swing Con to Lab 16.02% |
27 |
Sittingbourne & Sheppey |
Derek Wyatt |
Lab 18723 Con 16794 LDm 8447 Ref 1082 Lny 644 UKInd 472 |
Lab gain from Con |
1929 (4.18%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.52% |
28 |
Sutton & Cheam |
Paul Burstow |
LDm 19919 Con 17822 Lab 7280 Ref 1784 UKInd 191 NLP 96 |
LDm gain from Con |
2097 (4.45%) |
Swing Con to LDm 12.94% |
29 |
Stroud |
David Drew |
Lab 26170 Con 23260 LDm 9502 Grn 3415 |
Lab gain from Con |
2910 (4.67%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.76% |
30 |
Richmond Park |
Dr Jenny Tonge |
LDm 25393 Con 22442 Lab 7172 Ref 1467 Lny 204 NLP 102 RDrm 73 |
LDm gain from Con |
2951 (5.19%) |
Swing Con to LDm 9.69% |
31 |
Carshalton & Wallington |
Thomas Brake |
LDm 18490 Con 16223 Lab 11565 Ref 1289 Grn 377 BNP 261 UKInd 218 |
LDm gain from Con |
2267 (4.68%) |
Swing Con to LDm 11.76% |
32 |
Clwyd West |
Gareth Thomas |
Lab 14918 Con 13070 PC 5421 LDm 5151 Ref 1114 Cvty 583 |
Lab gain from Con |
1848 (4.59%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.10% |
33 |
Warwick & Leamington |
James Plaskitt |
Lab 26747 Con 23349 LDm 7133 Ref 1484 Grn 764 UKInd 306 EDP 183 NLP 125 |
Lab gain from Con |
3398 (5.65%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.98% |
34 |
Newark |
Fiona Jones |
Lab 23496 Con 20480 LDm 5960 Ref 2035 |
Lab gain from Con |
3016 (5.80%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.18% |
35 |
Wirral West |
Stephan Hesford |
Lab 21035 Con 18297 LDm 5945 Ref 1613 |
Lab gain from Con |
2738 (5.84%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.78% |
36 |
Shipley |
Christopher Leslie |
Lab 22962 Con 19966 LDm 7984 Ref 1960 |
Lab gain from Con |
2996 (5.67%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.79% |
37 |
Chatham & Aylesford |
Jonathon Shaw |
Lab 21191 Con 18401 LDm 7389 Ref 1538 UKInd 493 NLP 149 |
Lab gain from Con |
2790 (5.68%) |
Swing Con to Lab 15.10% |
38 |
Reading West |
Martin Salter |
Lab 21841 Con 18844 LDm 6153 Ref 976 BNP 320 UKInd 255 |
Lab gain from Con |
2997 (6.19%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.96% |
39 |
Finchley & Golders Green |
Rudolph Vis |
Lab 23180 Con 19991 LDm 5670 Ref 684 Grn 576 UKInd 205 |
Lab gain from Con |
3189 (6.34%) |
Swing Con to Lab 15.10% |
40 |
Thanet South |
Dr Stephen Ladyman |
Lab 20777 Con 17899 LDm 5263 UKInd 631 Grn 418 |
Lab gain from Con |
2878 (6.40%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.99% |
41 |
Illford North |
Linda Perham |
Lab 23135 Con 19911 LDm 5049 BNP 750 |
Lab gain from Con |
3224 (6.60%) |
Swing Con to Lab 17.27% |
42 |
Wrekin The |
Peter Bradley |
Lab 21243 Con 18218 LDm 5807 |
Lab gain from Con |
3025 (6.68%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.27% |
43 |
Wimbledon |
Roger Casale |
Lab 20674 Con 17694 LDm 8014 Ref 993 Grn 474 ProLife 346 MBBBQ 112 RDrm 47 |
Lab gain from Con |
2980 (6.16%) |
Swing Con to Lab 17.94% |
44 |
Hemel Hempstead |
Tony McWalter |
Lab 25175 Con 21539 LDm 6789 Ref 1327 NLP 262 |
Lab gain from Con |
3636 (6.60%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.96% |
45 |
Upminster |
Keith Darvill |
Lab 19085 Con 16315 LDm 3919 Ref 2000 |
Lab gain from Con |
2770 (6.70%) |
Swing Con to Lab 15.74% |
46 |
Falmouth & Cambourne |
Candy Atherton |
Lab 18151 Con 15463 LDm 13512 Ref 3534 IndL 1691 Lib 527 UKInd 355 MK 238 Lny 161 |
Lab gain from Con |
2688 (5.01%) |
Swing Con to Lab 6.36% |
47 |
Putney |
Anthony Coleman |
Lab 20084 Con 17108 LDm 4739 Ref 1518 UKInd 233 Stan 101 SportsA 90 NLP 66 IndBeaut 49 RenDem 7 |
Lab gain from Con |
2976 (6.76%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.18% |
48 |
Selby |
John Grogan |
Lab 25838 Con 22002 LDm 6778 Ref 1162 UKInd 536 |
Lab gain from Con |
3836 (6.81%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.14% |
49 |
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine |
Sir Robert Smith |
LDm 17742 Con 15080 SNP 5639 Lab 3923 Ref 805 |
LDm gain from Con |
2662 (6.16%) |
Swing Con to LDm 8.32% |
50 |
Hastings & Rye |
Michael Foster |
Lab 16867 Con 14307 LDm 13717 Ref 2511 Lib 1046 UKInd 472 Lny 149 |
Lab gain from Con |
2560 (5.22%) |
Swing Con to Lab 18.52% |
51 |
Hammersmith & Fulham |
Iain Coleman |
Lab 25262 Con 21420 LDm 4728 Ref 1023 NLab 695 Grn 562 UKInd 183 NLP 79 Care 74 |
Lab gain from Con |
3842 (7.11%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.06% |
52 |
Croydon Central |
Geraint Davies |
Lab 25432 Con 21535 LDm 6061 Ref 1886 Grn 595 UKInd 290 |
Lab gain from Con |
3897 (6.98%) |
Swing Con to Lab 15.48% |
53 |
Bexleyheath & Crayford |
Nigel Beard |
Lab 21942 Con 18527 LDm 5391 Ref 1551 BNP 429 UKInd 383 |
Lab gain from Con |
3415 (7.08%) |
Swing Con to Lab 15.00% |
54 |
Eastwood |
Jim Murphy |
Lab 20766 Con 17530 SNP 6826 LDm 6110 Ref 497 ProLife 393 UKInd 113 |
Lab gain from Con |
3236 (6.20%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.34% |
55 |
Gedling |
Vernon Coaker |
Lab 24390 Con 20588 LDm 5180 Ref 2006 |
Lab gain from Con |
3802 (7.29%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.01% |
56 |
Twickenham |
Dr Vincent Cable |
LDm 26237 Con 21956 Lab 9065 IndECR 589 RDrm 155 NLP 142 |
LDm gain from Con |
4281 (7.36%) |
Swing Con to LDm 8.80% |
57 |
Brighton Kemptown |
Desmond Turner |
Lab 21479 Con 17945 LDm 4478 Ref 1526 SocLab 316 NLP 172 Lny 123 RDrm 93 |
Lab gain from Con |
3534 (7.66%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.92% |
58 |
Romsey |
Sandra Gidley |
LDm 19571 Con 16260 Lab 1451 UKInd 901 Ind 417 Ind 109 |
LDm gain from Con |
3311 (8.55%) |
Swing Con to LDm 12.56% |
59 |
Dartford |
Howard Stoate |
Lab 25278 Con 20950 LDm 4827 BNP 428 FDP 287 CDem 228 |
Lab gain from Con |
4328 (8.32%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.50% |
60 |
Stafford |
DAvid Kidney |
Lab 24606 Con 20292 LDm 5480 Ref 1146 Lny 248 |
Lab gain from Con |
4314 (8.33%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.74% |
61 |
Reading East |
Ms Jane Griffiths |
Lab 21461 Con 17666 LDm 9307 Ref 1042 NLP 254 UKInd 252 BNP 238 |
Lab gain from Con |
3795 (7.56%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.89% |
62 |
Monmouth |
Huw Edwards |
Lab 23404 Con 19226 LDm 4689 Ref 1190 PC 516 |
Lab gain from Con |
4178 (8.52%) |
Swing Con to Lab 7.41% |
63 |
Hove |
Ivor Caplin |
Lab 21458 Con 17499 LDm 4645 Ref 1931 IndC 1735 Grn 644 UKInd 209 |
Lab gain from Con |
3959 (8.23%) |
Swing Con to Lab 16.36% |
64 |
Perth |
Roseanna Cunningham |
SNP 16209 Con 13068 Lab 11036 LDm 3583 Ref 366 UKInd 289 |
SNP gain from Con |
3141 (7.05%) |
Swing Con to SNP 6.56% |
65 |
Leeds North West |
Harold Best |
Lab 19694 Con 15850 LDm 11689 Ref 1325 SocLab 335 ProLife 251 RRP 232 |
Lab gain from Con |
3844 (7.79%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.77% |
66 |
Ribble South |
David Borrow |
Lab 25856 Con 20772 LDm 5879 Ref 1475 Lib 1127 NLP 122 |
Lab gain from Con |
5084 (9.20%) |
Swing Con to Lab 12.11% |
67 |
Wansdyke |
Dan Norris |
Lab 24117 Con 19318 LDm 9205 Ref 1327 UKInd 438 Lny 225 NLP 92 |
Lab gain from Con |
4799 (8.77%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.36% |
68 |
Portsmouth North |
Syd Rapson |
Lab 21339 Con 17016 LDm 4788 Ref 1757 UKInd 298 WsxReg 72 |
Lab gain from Con |
4323 (9.55%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.53% |
69 |
Tayside North |
John Swinney |
SNP 20447 Con 16287 Lab 5141 LDm 3716 |
SNP gain from Con |
4160 (9.12%) |
Swing Con to SNP 8.35% |
70 |
Broxtowe |
Nick Palmer |
Lab 27343 Con 21768 LDm 6934 Ref 2092 |
Lab gain from Con |
5575 (9.59%) |
Swing Con to Lab 12.90% |
71 |
Bradford West |
Marsha Singh |
Lab 18932 Con 15055 LDm 6737 SocLab 1551 Ref 1348 Grn 861 BNP 839 SP 245 |
Lab hold |
3877 (8.51%) |
Swing Lab to Con 5.45% |
72 |
Isle of Wight |
Dr Peter Brand |
LDm 31274 Con 24868 Lab 9646 Ref 4734 UKInd 1072 IInd 848 Grn 544 NLP 87 RainIsl 86 |
LDm gain from Con |
6406 (8.76%) |
Swing Con to LDm 5.53% |
73 |
Birmingham Edgbaston |
Gisela Stuart |
Lab 23554 Con 18712 LDm 4691 Ref 1065 BDP 443 |
Lab gain from Con |
4842 (9.99%) |
Swing Con to Lab 9.97% |
74 |
Scarborough & Whitby |
Lawrence Quinn |
Lab 24791 Con 19667 LDm 7672 Ref 2191 |
Lab gain from Con |
5124 (9.43%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.67% |
75 |
Wolverhampton South West |
Jenny Jones |
Lab 24657 Con 19539 LDm 4012 Lib 713 |
Lab gain from Con |
5118 (10.46%) |
Swing Con to Lab 9.94% |
76 |
Brent North |
Barry Gardiner |
Lab 19343 Con 15324 LDm 3104 NLP 204 RDrm 199 |
Lab gain from Con |
4019 (10.53%) |
Swing Con to Lab 18.83% |
77 |
Colne Valley |
Kali Mountford |
Lab 23285 Con 18445 LDm 12755 SocLab 759 Grn 493 UKInd 478 Lny 196 |
Lab gain from Con |
4840 (8.58%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.41% |
78 |
St Albans |
Kerry Pollard |
Lab 21338 Con 16879 LDm 10692 Ref 1619 RDrm 166 NLP 111 |
Lab gain from Con |
4459 (8.78%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.70% |
79 |
Portsmouth South |
Mike Hancock |
LDm 20421 Con 16094 Lab 13086 Ref 1629 Lib 184 UKInd 141 NLP 140 |
LDm gain from Con |
4327 (8.37%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.41% |
80 |
Gravesham |
Chris Pond |
Lab 26460 Con 20681 LDm 4128 Ref 1441 Ind 414 NLP 129 |
Lab gain from Con |
5779 (10.85%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.01% |
81 |
Devon North |
Nick Harvey |
LDm 27824 Con 21643 Lab 5367 |
LDm hold |
6181 (11.27%) |
Swing Con to LDm 4.95% |
82 |
Battersea |
Martin Linton |
Lab 24047 Con 18687 LDm 3482 Ref 804 UKInd 250 RDrm 127 |
Lab gain from Con |
5360 (11.31%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.21% |
83 |
Welwyn Hatfield |
Melanie Johnson |
Lab 24936 Con 19341 LDm 7161 RA 1263 ProLife 267 |
Lab gain from Con |
5595 (10.56%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.05% |
84 |
Loughborough |
Andrew Reed |
Lab 25448 Con 19736 LDm 6190 Ref 991 |
Lab gain from Con |
5712 (10.91%) |
Swing Con to Lab 8.94% |
85 |
Burton |
Janet Dean |
Lab 27810 Con 21480 LDm 4617 NatDem 604 |
Lab gain from Con |
6330 (11.61%) |
Swing Con to Lab 9.30% |
86 |
Watford |
Claire Ward |
Lab 25019 Con 19227 LDm 9272 Ref 1484 NLP 234 |
Lab gain from Con |
5792 (10.49%) |
Swing Con to Lab 12.30% |
87 |
Swindon South |
Julia Drown |
Lab 23943 Con 18298 LDm 7371 Ref 1273 Route66 181 NLP 96 |
Lab gain from Con |
5645 (11.03%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.57% |
88 |
Oxford West & Abingdon |
Dr Evan Harris |
LDm 26268 Con 19983 Lab 12361 Ref 1258 Grn 691 UKInd 258 ProLife 238 NLP 91 LGR 48 |
LDm gain from Con |
6285 (10.27%) |
Swing Con to LDm 10.34% |
89 |
Cornwall South East |
Colin Breed |
LDm 27044 Con 20564 Lab 7358 UKInd 1428 MK 573 Lib 268 NLP 197 |
LDm gain from Con |
6480 (11.28%) |
Swing Con to LDm 12.06% |
90 |
Calder Valley |
Christine McCafferty |
Lab 26050 Con 19795 LDm 8322 Ref 1380 Grn 488 BNP 431 |
Lab gain from Con |
6255 (11.08%) |
Swing Con to Lab 9.53% |
91 |
Stourbridge |
Debra Shipley |
Lab 23452 Con 17807 LDm 7123 Ref 1319 |
Lab gain from Con |
5645 (11.36%) |
Swing Con to Lab 10.96% |
92 |
Pudsey |
Paul Truswell |
Lab 25370 Con 19163 LDm 7375 Ref 823 |
Lab gain from Con |
6207 (11.77%) |
Swing Con to Lab 13.79% |
93 |
Medway |
Robert Marshall-Andrews |
Lab 21858 Con 16504 LDm 4555 Ref 1420 UKInd 405 |
Lab gain from Con |
5354 (11.97%) |
Swing Con to Lab 14.85% |
94 |
Edinburgh Pentlands |
Linda Clark |
Lab 19675 Con 14813 SNP 5952 LDm 4575 Ref 422 Grn 224 UKInd 81 |
Lab gain from Con |
4862 (10.63%) |
Swing Con to Lab 9.83% |
95 |
Morecambe & Lunesdale |
Geraldine Smith |
Lab 24061 Con 18096 LDm 5614 Ref 1313 NLP 165 |
Lab gain from Con |
5965 (12.11%) |
Swing Con to Lab 15.95% |
96 |
Hendon |
Andrew Dismore |
Lab 24683 Con 18528 LDm 5427 Ref 978 UKInd 267 WRP 153 |
Lab gain from Con |
6155 (12.30%) |
Swing Con to Lab 16.21% |
97 |
Aberdeen South |
Anne Begg |
Lab 15541 LDm 12176 Con 11621 SNP 4299 Ref 425 |
Lab gain from Con |
3365 (7.64%) |
Swing Con to Lab 11.18% |
98 |
Southport |
Ronnie Fearn |
LDm 24346 Con 18186 Lab 6125 Ref 1368 Lib 386 NLP 93 NatDem 92 |
LDm gain from Con |
6160 (12.17%) |
Swing Con to LDm 8.85% |
99 |
Harrogate & Knaresborough |
Phil Willis |
LDm 24558 Con 18322 Lab 4159 LC 614 |
LDm gain from Con |
6236 (13.09%) |
Swing Con to LDm 15.75% |
100 |
Hornchurch |
John Cryer |
Lab 22066 Con 16386 LDm 3446 Ref 1595 TW 259 ProLife 189 |
Lab gain from Con |
5680 (12.93%) |
Swing Con to Lab 15.95% |
Notes: Table was generated by UK-Elect v4.5, and reflects situation at 10th February 2001. Where the Conservatives are second the swing required to win a seat can be obtained by halving the majority. The table filtering was set to include constituencies in Great Britain only (excluding Northern Ireland). Gains and swings are compared to the previous election in that constituency. Where constituency boundaries changed between 1992 and 1997, estimates of what the 1992 results would have been if the 1997 boundaries had been used are taken from the definitive work by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher: "Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies" (ISBN: 0 948858 21 4)